Marketiva hadir dengan Indexs dan Commodities

Wah makin hebat aja marketiva!

Ayo kita coba trade commodities dan indexs

BETWEEN TRADE OR NO

betwEen trade or no!

what you can choose?

1. trade with own
2. trade with robot!

if you want download trading tools with robot! download right here!

tHIS IS JUST SAMPLE ROBOT TRADING

use this strategi in MT4 platfrom and choose the virtual mode"

NICE TO TRADE :)

Resiko Bermain Forex dan Solusi Pemecahannya

Forex adalah jenis investasi yang sangat beresiko tinggi, apabila kita menang mungkin akan besar namun kalahnya juga seperti demikian, bagaimana cara kita menyiasatinya ya?
Berikut ada beberapa tips yang boleh dijalani

- Bertradinglah dengan menggunakan maksimal 25% dari total margin anda
- Tidak serakah
- Analisa pasar terlebih dahulu
- Jika anda punya tips yang lain, tulis aja di comment!
- :) Always smile

Dollar Falls

Dollar Falls to Record Low Against Euro on Inflation, Fed View

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record low against the euro as evidence of slowing inflation encouraged traders to speculate that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs a second time this year.

The government reported today that core consumer prices last month had their smallest annual gain since February 2004. The Fed on Sept. 18 reduced the target rate for overnight lending between banks a half-percentage point to 4.75 percent.

``The dollar was sold on a significantly bearish outlook,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy in New York at Bank of America Corp. ``Now the dollar has been pushed to an extreme level.''

The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.4198 per euro at 9:42 a.m. in New York after touching $1.4208, the lowest since the European currency debuted in January 1999. It was the seventh straight day the dollar broke a record. The dollar decreased 0.4 percent to 115.23 yen.

Some traders sold the euro to prevent it from trading above $1.4250, according to Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. Traders place preset orders to prevent a currency from breaking through a range and rendering options bets worthless.

The next level of resistance is $1.4536 per euro, the equivalent of the dollar's record low of 1.3455 deutsche marks in March 1995, he said.

Fed Rate Outlook

Futures contracts today showed 86 percent odds the central bank will lower its target by a quarter-percentage point to 4.50 percent at its next meeting Oct. 31, compared with 14 percent a month ago. The European Central Bank's key borrowing cost is 4 percent, while the Bank of Japan's is 0.5 percent.

The Commerce Department said today that its price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy costs, the Fed's preferred measure, rose 1.8 percent from August 2006 after a 1.9 percent annualized increase the previous month.

The New York-based Conference Board reported on Sept. 25 that its index of consumer confidence fell to 99.8 in September from a revised 105.6 in the previous month. Purchases of new homes fell to an annual rate of 795,000 last month from a revised 867,000 in July, the lowest in more than seven years, the Commerce Department reported yesterday.

The yen rose earlier against the dollar on speculation losses related to subprime mortgage defaults will spread in the U.S. and Europe.

The Financial Times said Northern Rock Plc, a U.K. bank bailed out by the Bank of England, borrowed a further 5 billion pounds ($10 billion) to stay in business.

The Bank of England agreed to bail out Newcastle, England- based Northern Rock on Sept. 14 after it requested an emergency credit line, as losses on U.S. mortgages to people with poor credit made banks reluctant to lend.

EUR/USD RECORD

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar weakened to near a record low against the euro after Federal Reserve officials signaled the need for interest-rate cuts, eroding demand for dollar- denominated assets.

The U.S. dollar index sank to a 15-year low against six major currencies as Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and Fed Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said yesterday credit-market losses may slow growth, while a government report last week showed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs in August. The euro rose for a fifth day versus the dollar, its longest winning streak since June.

``Everyone hates the dollar,'' said Steven Butler, director of foreign exchange trading at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. ``The market has a rate cut next week totally priced in. Lots of people are calling for the Fed to do more. The Fed seems to be backed into a corner.''

The dollar fell 0.2 percent to $1.3825 per euro at 10:26 a.m. in New York, after earlier touching $1.3839, the weakest since Aug. 6. The dollar reached a record low of $1.3852 on July 24. The U.S. currency bought 114.01 yen, from 113.71.

Brazil's real led gains among the 16 major currencies against the U.S. dollar, rising 1 percent. Canada's dollar and Sweden's krona increased 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

The New York Board of Trade's dollar index comparing the U.S. currency against its six primary peers, including the euro and yen, fell 0.2 percent to 79.671 from 79.816 yesterday. It earlier touched 79.616, the lowest since September 1992.

`No Reason'

``There is no reason to buy the dollar,'' said Michael Malpede, a senior currency analyst in Chicago at Man Global Research. ``The dollar is pressured by speculation that the Fed is going to cut rates next week. Fed officials have signaled they are worried about downside risks to growth.''

The dollar will drop to $1.40 per euro by October, said Malpede.

The yen fell against all 16 major currencies as a rise in global stocks prompted investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.6 percent to 1,460.07 after gains in Asian and European equities. Treasuries fell for the first time in three days as demand for the safety of government debt waned.

The spread, or extra yield, investors demand to own emerging-market bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries narrowed 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 2.41 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI Plus index. The drop in the risk premium is the biggest since Aug. 31.

The European Central Bank said it drained a record 60 billion euros ($83 billion) from the money market after the overnight deposit rate slumped below the bank's benchmark lending rate of 4 percent.

`Slight Return'

``You are seeing a slight return of risk appetite,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the Global Markets group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodian bank with over $20 trillion in assets under administration. ``The market now prices in a Fed rate cut next week and there is hope that the credit problems will ease and liquidity will improve. Some of the risk-taking investors are positioning for the eventuality.''

The Japanese currency fell 0.3 percent to 157.51 per euro. The yen dropped 1 percent against the real, 0.9 percent versus the Canadian dollar and 0.4 percent versus the Australian dollar.

`Important Downside Risk'

Mishkin said yesterday there's an ``important downside risk'' to the world's biggest economy and Yellen highlighted ``significant downward pressure.''

Two-year Treasuries yielded 2 basis points less than similar-maturity German bunds amid speculation the Fed will cut its main rate at the Sept. 18 meeting. The U.S. notes lost their yield advantage for the first time in three years last week.

Interest-rate futures show a 56 percent chance the Fed will lower borrowing costs by half a percentage point to 4.75 percent next week. A month ago, traders were expecting a quarter-point cut.

Traders are betting the European Central Bank will raise borrowing costs at least once from 4 percent by year-end.

The implied yield on the December futures contract rose 4 basis points to 4.51 percent. The contract settles to the three- month interbank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged about 16 basis points above the ECB's key rate since 1999.

ECB executive board member Juergen Stark said the decision to leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged last week doesn't mean policy makers have ruled out another increase, Market News International reported.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will deliver a speech at 11 a.m. New York time in Berlin today focused on trade and capital flows. He is scheduled to speak from a prepared text without taking questions.

A government report showed the U.S trade deficit narrowed during July.

The trade gap fell to $59.2 billion from a revised $59.4 billion in June. The median forecast of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a deficit of $59 billion.

EURO versus Dollar

The euro strengthened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3840 level and was supported around the $1.3775 level. Traders await remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke from Berlin later today. Comments from Fed officials yesterday evidenced a wide range of opinions concerning the effects of the current global credit crunch on the U.S. economy. Fed Governor Mishkin reported that if “heightened uncertainty” leads to further pullbacks in household and business spending, “it poses an important downside risk to economic activity.” The Federal Open Market Committee convenes one week from today and many traders believe the Fed will reduce the federal funds target rate by up to 50bps. In contrast to Mishkin’s remarks, Dallas Fed President Fisher suggested a steady course of action would be sensible saying “having a steady hand rather than an itchy trigger finger” is what guides him. Fisher added “I set aside the passions of the moment and the conventional wisdom in the markets and keep a steady focus on the Fed's mission. Conducting monetary policy is not a popularity contest.” Data released in the U.S. today saw the July trade balance narrow to –US$ 59.2 billion, down 0.3% from the upwardly revised –US$ 59.4 billion in June. In eurozone news, the European Commission reduced its EMU-13 growth forecast to +2.8% from its previous projection of +2.9%. Likewise, the EC now sees 2007 inflation at 2.0% compared with earlier forecasts of 1.9%. Also, the German August wholesale price index was up 0.5% m/m and up 2.5% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3620 level.

EUR/USD Weekly recap

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.3795 level and was supported around the $1.3550 level. The pair gained about 140 pips last week. Traders continued to speculate as to what the FOMC will do and say on 18 September. The Fed’s Beige Book saw a “limited” impact of the current credit crunch on the economy outside of housing. Anecdotal August retail sales evidence suggests strong results. A contraction in U.S. August jobs growth and 81,000 downward revision to June’s and July’s tallies will up the Fed’s ante. Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart, Dallas Fed’s Fisher, and St. Louis Fed’s Poole talked up the U.S. economy before the jobs numbers were released.

The ECB kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.00% with Trichet noting rates are still “accommodative” and adding rates could move higher by the end of the year. The EC kept its growth forecasts unchanged and still estimates Q3 GDP growth between 0.3% and 0.8% and Q4 GDP growth between 0.2% and 0.8%. ECB’s Weber called on the markets to monitor the central bank’s reaction to data.

Data released in the U.S. last week saw the August ISM manufacturing survey recede to 52.9; July construction spending was off 0.4%; ADP private sector jobs were up 38,000 in August; August Challenger job cuts were up 85.2% m/m to 79,459; July pending home sales were off 12.2% m/m; Q2 non-farm productivity was upwardly revised to an annualized 2.6%; Q2 unit labour costs fell to their lowest level in one year at +1.4%; August ISM services printed at 55.8; weekly initial jobless claims were off 19,000 to 318,000; August non-farm payrolls fell 4,000; the August unemployment rate held steady at 4.6%; and August average hourly earnings were up +0.3%.

Data released in the eurozone last week saw the August EMU-13 manufacturing PMI survey fall to a 19-month low of 54.3; EMU-13 GDP expanded 0.3% q/q and 2.5% y/y in Q2; August EMU-13 PMI services printed at 58.0; July EMU-13 retail sales were up 0.1% m/m and 0.5% y/y; German July manufacturing orders were off 7.1% m/m; German industrial production was up 0.1% m/m and 4.6% y/y; and Germany’s July current account surplus narrowed to €14.1 billion.

Technical Outlook

Last week’s high (1) was above the 23.6% retracement of the 1.3261-1.3851 range and last week’s low (2) was right around the 50.0% retracement of the same range. The 1.3840/ 1.3910/ 1.3970 levels represent upside resistance targets while the 1.3555/ 1.3421/ 1.3359/ 1.3302/ 1.3273 levels represent downside support targets

Dollar Falls to Lowest in a Month Against Euro on Payroll Loss

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to the lowest in a month against the euro and weakened versus the yen after a government report showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs last month for the first time in four years.

The U.S. dollar index comparing the currency with its six primary peers fell to the lowest in 15 years as the payroll data raised speculation the housing slowdown and credit market turmoil are spilling into the broader economy. Interest-rate futures show traders are betting, with 76 percent certainty, the Federal Reserve will lower rates to 4.75 percent on Sept. 18.

``The things the Fed needs to justify two rate cuts this year are falling into place,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``This is enough of a loss in momentum to put on a rate cut in September.''

The dollar fell 0.6 percent to $1.3771 per euro at 10:46 a.m. in New York. The U.S. currency also declined 1.6 percent to 113.60 yen and earlier reached 113.58. The U.S. currency touched $1.3798 per euro, the weakest since Aug. 9. The dollar dropped to a record low of $1.3852 per euro on July 24.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the decline in U.S. payrolls during August was ``not totally surprising.'' He expressed confidence that the economy will still expand in the second half of the year, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Euro and Dollar

The yen has gained 6.6 percent against the euro and 9 percent versus the dollar since Bear Stearns Cos. said on June 22 it would bail out a hedge fund that lost money on securities related to loans to homeowners struggling to make payments in the worst housing recession in 16 years.

Investors since then have fled the asset-backed money market and corporate debt while banks curbed lending, forcing global central banks, including the Fed and European Central Bank, to supply cash to ease the credit crunch.

``It's the first clearly recessionary signal out of the economy, and a sign that the subprime problems have crept into the real world,'' said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist in New York at DailyFX.com. ``We'll see a global slowdown led by a U.S. slowdown, and a moratorium on global rate hikes. The focus will begin to shift away from the notion of safe haven in the U.S. to the story of the U.S. recession.''

Payrolls Report

Non-farm payrolls decreased by 4,000 in August from a revised gain of 68,000 a month earlier, the Labor Department in Washington said. It compared with the median forecast of a 100,000 gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 88 economists. The unemployment rate held at 4.6 percent.

This week central banks from the U.K., the 13 country euro region, Canada, Australia and South Korea kept rates unchanged as they assess how the credit squeeze will affect economic growth.

Interest-rate futures show a 76 percent chance the Fed will cut borrowing costs to 4.75 percent from 5.25 percent at its Sept. 18 meeting. The odds of a reduction to 5 percent are 24 percent.

``It added significantly to the dollar-negative sentiment,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``The Fed rate cut at this month's meeting is a lock. The question is whether the central bank will cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points.''

The New York Board of Trade's dollar index fell earlier to 79.841, the lowest since September 1992.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said yesterday he hasn't seen ``conclusive'' signs of a housing spillover into the broader economy and warned that inflation has yet to be contained. St. Louis Fed President William Poole said it's not clear yet that the economy will ``nosedive'' and he's not sure of the right response to housing and financial turmoil.

109 Per Dollar

Barclays Capital Inc. strategist Toru Umemoto, the most accurate yen forecaster in 2006 according to a Bloomberg News survey, raised his forecast for the yen to 109 per dollar from a previous estimate of 114.

The pound rose 0.1 percent to $2.0267, rising for a third day versus the dollar, as the yield advantage of the two-year British note rose 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 130 basis points over a comparable-maturity U.S. Treasury security.

European Central Bank policy makers signaled their intention to raise interest rates further to contain inflation once financial-market turbulence has abated.

The ECB is ``in a process of adjusting interest rates'' and ``this process hasn't ended yet,'' council member Axel Weber said at a conference in Frankfurt. The ECB, which shelved a planned increase yesterday to leave its benchmark rate at 4 percent, has a ``determination to act in the future whenever it is necessary,'' President Jean-Claude Trichet said at the same event.

FOREX MARKET ANALYSYS

USD

The euro strengthened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3705 level and was supported around the $1.3635 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just below the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. As expected, European Central Bank kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.00%. ECB President Trichet reported policymakers will act in a “firm and timely manner” to keep inflation below its 2.0% annual target ceiling rate. Trichet also added the ECB will “very closely” monitor price risks over the coming months, noted monetary policy remains on the “accommodative side,” and said policymakers have not ruled out additional tightening by the end of the year. Data released in the eurozone today saw German July manufacturing orders off 7.1% m/m. In U.S. news, the Federal Reserve injected US$ 31.25 billion in temporary reserves today, its latest attempt to provide additional liquidity to the credit markets. Data released in the U.S. today saw Q2 non-farm productivity upwardly revised to an annualized 2.6% growth rate from 1.8%, the highest level since Q3 2005. On the flip side of the coin, unit labour costs fell to their lowest level in one year, reduced to +1.4% from +2.1% and up 4.9% y/y. Anecdotal evidence from U.S. retailers were released today and suggested retail sales were solid last month. Other data released in the U.S. today saw the August ISM services index print at 55.8, unchanged from July’s print. Also, weekly initial jobless claims fell 19,000 to 318,000 while continuing jobless claims rose to 2.598 million. The Fed’s Beige Book was released yesterday and noted “limited” reports of financial markets problems affecting the general economy outside of real estate. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3620 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen came off marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥115.55 level and was supported around the ¥114.80 level. The yen was pressured on traders found little impetus to unwind short yen carry trades. Many traders believe the decisions by major central banks this week to keep interest rates unchanged will pressure Bank of Japan’s Policy Board to keep borrowing costs unchanged for the time being. The most likely scenario probably involves a +25bps increase in the overnight call rate to +0.75% by the end of the year. Data released in Japan overnight cam August machine tool orders up 12.3% y/y. Also, capital flows data reported that foreigners sold a net ¥52.5 billion in Japanese bonds last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.61% to close at ¥16,257.00. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥114.55 level. The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥157.90 level and was supported around the ¥156.75 level. The British pound and Swiss franc gained ground vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥234.00 and ¥96.00 figures, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.5384 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.5497. People’s Bank of China announced it will lift banks’ reserve requirements on deposits by 0.5%, effective on 25 September. Most traders believe PBOC will tighten monetary policy further this year and today’s action represented the seventh tightening this year. Chinese President Hu told President Bush China will liberalize the yuan further.

NEWS FOREX WITH FREE SIGNALS

The Dollar rose against the Yen Tuesday, tracking a rally in US equities after a report on August manufacturing eased fears of a steep decline in economic activity. Earlier in the session, the Yen pushed higher as a decline in European stocks reflected the unwinding of risky carry trades that use cheaply borrowed Yen to buy higher-yielding currencies. But gains in US share prices reversed that as did a US manufacturing report that showed only a narrow slowdown in August manufacturing activity.
Analysts said "Equities are still driving currencies, and for now, the market isn't pricing in a radical contraction in US growth".
In late trading, the UsdJpy moved 0.54% higher at 116.43, well off a session low of 115.34. Some analysts had earlier said the Yen received a boost from reports that the Qatar government's $50 billion investment fund intended to increase investments in Asia to offset a weakening Dollar.
The EurUsd ended unchanged at 1.3623 after hitting intraday 1.3551 low. Analysts said investors are cautious about building large positions on the Euro ahead of a European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB last raised rates in June, to 4% from 3.75%, and was widely expected to tighten policy again this month until the latest flare-up of market volatility. Recent poll gave a median 40% chance of a rate hike when the European Central Bank meets on Thursday.
US markets are pricing in a quarter-percentage-point cut to the 5.25% federal funds rate when the Federal Reserve meets on Sept. 18. As early as last week, they were bracing for a half-point cut.
Last week, Fed chief Ben Bernanke said the central bank was prepared to take action as necessary if financial turmoil were to start slowing growth, but added it was not the Fed's job to save speculators from investments gone sour.
Key for markets will be Friday's August US employment report, expected to show 110,000 new jobs added, above July's 92,000 gain. Analyst said a report that comes in below 100,000 would stoke fears that the housing slump and credit crisis has started to cost jobs.
The Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Sweden's Riksbank are also meeting this week, though only the Riksbank is expected to lift rates.

Today's Key Issues (time in GMT) 00.00 UK Bank of England starts a two-day rate meeting 08.00 EUR August Euro zone PMI services 57.9 vs 58.3 08.30 UK August PMI services 2.5% vs 3.1% (YoY) 09.00 EUR July Euro zone Retail Sales 0.3% vs 0.4% (MoM) 09.00 EUR July Euro zone Retail Sales 1.0% vs 0.9% (YoY) 12.15 US August ADP Employment Change 83k vs 48k 13.00 CAD Bank of Canada rate decision 4.5% vs 4.5% 14.00 US July Pending Home Sales -2% vs 5%

The Risk Today: EurUsd was consolidating between 1.3563 and 1.3720 last week low and high. It get closer to the low range and nearby support which cut in at 1.3550, August 24 low, ahead of 1.3449 low from August 22nd. A move below this would be necessary to threaten the current uptrend, and confirmation of trend end under 1.3360. On the upside, a break toward 1.3687 will pave the way for extended gains to 1.3858 key resistance. GbpUsd failed to confirm a clear break of Trendline resistance 2.0195 to confirm recent uptrend. A break there was required to trigger gains towards 2.0272 and 2.0395 resistances. Uptrend on hold now. On the downside and further to recent development below 2.0100, market looks for a decline towards 1.9916, august 23rd low and potentially 1.9653 key level from August 17th. UsdJpy The downtrend remains intact below 117.13. Renewed weakness may break toward 113.67 support down to 111.60 ,August 17th low, and may open the way to 110.30 (61.8% retracement). On the uptrend, resistance holds 117.13 August 23rd high, before 118.93 (former 23.6% retracement). A more likely break of 116.61 Trendline resistance (downtrend channel) will open the way up. UsdChf went up in a 4 consecutive days, rebounding from 1.1989 low to 1.2153 high. On this uptrend, 1.2183 (38.2% retracement of 1.2771 to 1.1819 decline) is holding strong resistance. Initial support holds 1.1989 Friday low. There is very light support till 1.1819. A break down might open the way toward 1.1529 (61.8% projection).

Resistance and Support:

EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF
1.3858 K	2.0395 K	118.93 S	1.2216 S
1.3776 M	2.0272 S	117.13 M	1.2183 T
1.3687 S	2.0195 S	116.61 T	1.2153 M
1.3585	2.0090	115.75	1.2120
1.3563 M	1.9916 S	113.67 M	1.1962 S
1.3550 P	1.9653 K	111.60 K	1.1819 T
1.3396 T	1.9622 S	110.30 T	1.1529 S
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

USD/JPY SIGNAL PREDIKSI

We just saw a USD sell off against the majors as Pending Home Sales came in weaker than expected at -12.2%...

I would like to make an adjustment on our trade as we have major news events coming up this week with ISM Non-Manufacturing data and Non-Farm Payrolls.

Close half our position at market (115.10) to lock in +90 pips. Adjust stop to 116.50 on remaining position. Continue to target 114.00

Good luck!

Stop Adjustment: 2007-09-04 08:30

It was a nice long holiday weekend here in the U.S., but it's time to get back to work with a little stop adjustment as our trade goes our way in USD/JPY.

The pair has moved lower during the morning European trading session, making a low around 115.30 before retracing back up to 115.50.

I would like to reduce our risk in the trade progressively by adjust our stop with every 50 pips movement in our direction. So...

Adjust stop from 118.00 to 117.50.

Looks like risk aversion in the market as USD is currently making a small rally against the majors, except for the Yen. We will see more volatility this week with major reports coming out of the US, so stay tuned for trade adjustments or possible scenarios where we may have to close our position prematurely. Good luck!

Trade Update: 2007-09-01 10:50

Our trade has been triggered short at 116.00 as the pair rallied to 116.50, but shortly fell before the end of the trading day back below 116.00

Again, I stand on the view that we will see more risk aversion to come as we continue to get more and more data on how bad the mortgage mess will effect different aspects of the economy from jobs, consumer spending, economic growth, and so on.

So, we will hold on to this trade and stay tuned for stop and profit target adjustments. Good luck!

GBP/JPY Prediction

It was a nice long holiday weekend here in the U.S., but it's time to get back to work with a little stop adjustment as our trade goes our way in USD/JPY.

The pair has moved lower during the morning European trading session, making a low around 115.30 before retracing back up to 115.50.

I would like to reduce our risk in the trade progressively by adjust our stop with every 50 pips movement in our direction. So...

Adjust stop from 118.00 to 117.50.

Looks like risk aversion in the market as USD is currently making a small rally against the majors, except for the Yen. We will see more volatility this week with major reports coming out of the US, so stay tuned for trade adjustments or possible scenarios where we may have to close our position prematurely. Good luck!

Trade Update: 2007-09-01 10:50

Our trade has been triggered short at 116.00 as the pair rallied to 116.50, but shortly fell before the end of the trading day back below 116.00

Again, I stand on the view that we will see more risk aversion to come as we continue to get more and more data on how bad the mortgage mess will effect different aspects of the economy from jobs, consumer spending, economic growth, and so on.

So, we will hold on to this trade and stay tuned for stop and profit target adjustments. Good luck!

Trade Idea: 2007-08-30 20:46

For tonight's "Pick" we are going to check out the USD/JPY and see if we can get some major pippage out of it!

Now, I'm in the camp that thinks there is more risk aversion to come and that we've only seen the beginning. This lines up with our chart on USD/JPY. As we all know, global risk aversion benefits the Yen as market players reduce risk through carry trade unwinding. The pair is currently in a down trend with stochs in overbought territory and price action finding resistance at 116.00. We are going to have a wide 200 pip stop, so adjust position sizes accordingly to keep within the 1% account risk rule!"

Short USD/JPY at 116.00, stop at 118.00, pt1 at 114.00, pt2 at 110.00

EUR/USD FUNDAMENTAL

The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3550 level and was capped around the $1.3625 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just below the 50% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. Traders are readying for this Friday’s August non-farm payrolls data in the U.S. with most forecasts focusing on job growth around 110,000 workers. A weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls number will add to the view that the recent global credit slump and job losses in the U.S. mortgage industry are impacting the overall economy more-than-expected. The most likely scenario remains a 50bps reduction in the federal funds target rate by the Federal Open Market Committee on 18 September. Data released in the U.S. today saw the August ISM manufacturing index decline to 52.9 from 53.8 in July while July construction spending was off 0.4%. The Fed’s Beige Book is scheduled for release tomorrow and could evidence additional concern from policymakers about the state of the U.S. economy. In eurozone news, many traders believe the European Central Bank will keep its main refinancing rate unchanged this week on account of global credit conditions while others believe the ECB will remain on track and lift the refinancing rate by +25bps. Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-13 GDP expand 0.3% q/q in Q2 and 2.5% y/y, unchanged from provisional estimates. Also, the European Commission kept its growth forecasts unchanged and still estimates Q3 GDP growth between 0.3% and 0.8% and Q4 GDP growth between 0.2% and 0.8%. Other data released today saw the July producer price inflation up 0.3% m/m and 1.8% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3530 level.

JPY GOING STRONGER

As I prep for the coming week, one of the big questions I am wrestling with is whether the JPY is going to get stronger in the near term or not. The run this currency has been on the last two weeks has been extraordinary but was paused when the whole market reversed on the Fed discount rate cut. Whether this run will continue in the near term could be resolved this week.

The first thing I am watching for is whether we continue to see equities suffer. If that is the case, we will likely continue to see the JPY strengthen as riskier investments (stocks, carry-trades, etc) are converted to safer strategies. Without a larger tier of economic announcements to fill out the week, trader sentiment should be easy to isolate and true biases towards the market may appear.

The second thing I am watching will be the Japanese monetary policy announcement on Thursday. While it is quite certain that they will not make a change this month, the Bank of Japan is anxious to raise rates and begin to become more normalized. Without the ability to manage monetary policy with interest rates, the BoJ is operating with one hand behind its back. On the other side, there is a lot of pressure from the gov't and international bankers to leave rates low so as to not spoil the slowly recovering economy. These are the two horns of a true dilemma. Since I don't anticipate an interest rate increase, I am watching for rhetoric. What will the BoJ governor say? What will the responses from the Japanese gov't and international investing community be? If traders start to see a rate hike in the short term then we may see more JPY strength, which would be very bad for retail and institutional carry traders.
__________________

Analysis by Profiting With Forex (PFX)

EUR/USD FUNDAMENTAL

The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3560 and was capped around the $1.3625 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. Data released in the U.S. today saw July producer price inflation rise 0.6% m/m, more-than-expected, while core prices were up just 0.1%, below expectations. Core PPI prices are up 2.3% y/y, the fastest annual gain since September 2005. These data suggest the Federal Open Market Committee will find it difficult to justify a monetary easing should ongoing credit dislocations warrant same. Also, the U.S. trade deficit receded to a four-month low of -US$ 58.1 billion. In eurozone news, European Central Bank President Trichet today said “We have provided in particular the liquidity which was needed to permit an orderly functioning of the money market. We experience a period of market nervousness, a period in which we see increased volatility in many markets and a significant re-appreciation of risks. In some respects, what has been observed can be interpreted as a normalization of the pricing of risk.” Traders interpreted this as an indication the ECB is becoming optimistic about the ongoing credit problems in the market and will begin to withdraw liquidity from the system. Trichet’s remarks were amplified by ECB member Weber. Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-13 GDP growth of just 0.3% q/q and 2.5% y/y in Q2, the weakest pace since Q1 2005. Data to be released on Thursday include the final July harmonized inflation figures for the eurozone and if they come in weaker-than-expected, they could provide the ECB will enough breathing room to delay their next monetary tightening. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3715 level.

Dollar Falls to Near Record Low Versus Euro on Growth Concerns

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to near a record low versus the euro on concern subprime mortgage losses will slow the economy and prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The dollar touched the lowest in more than four months versus the yen as traders raised bets the Fed will lower rates as soon as October after a U.S. report on Aug. 3. showed companies added fewer jobs last month than economists forecast. The yen rose versus the New Zealand dollar and pound as stocks declined in Asia and Europe, prompting investors to repay Japanese loans used to buy higher-yielding assets.

``With the potential for lower interest rates and growth in the U.S. economy, and the rising fear of subprime contagion, the market will continue to abandon the dollar,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets at currency-trading company Tempus Consulting in Washington. ``Dollar weakness will continue to rule the market.''

The U.S. currency fell to $1.3801 per euro at 10:10 a.m. in New York, from $1.3773 on Aug. 3, earlier reaching $1.3839, near a record low of $1.3852 reached on July 24. The dollar declined to 117.85 yen, from 118.05, and touched 117.19, the weakest since March 29. Salvaggio said the dollar will fall to $1.44 per euro by year-end.

The New York Board of Trade's DXY dollar index fell below 80 for the first time since September 1992. The index reached 79.957 before reaching 80.179.

`More Downside'

``It's certainly a significant breakthrough and could be a precursor of more downside if the Fed signals a shift in policy tomorrow,'' said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist in New York at DailyFX.com.

Federal funds futures show traders see a 72.4 percent chance the Fed will cut its 5.25 percent benchmark rate by October. The odds were 5.9 percent a month ago. The Labor Department said on Aug. 3 the economy added 92,000 jobs in July, compared with 126,000 in June and the 127,000 forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

The dollar has lost 1 percent in the last five days against the euro on speculation Fed policy makers will voice concern about slowing growth at their meeting tomorrow. The bank will leave borrowing costs unchanged at the meeting, according to a separate survey

The pace of leveraged buyouts has slowed more than 33 percent since June, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Investors are cutting back on riskier assets such as the loans and bonds that fund LBOs after being burned by losses from U.S. subprime mortgages.

Late Payments

American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. filed for bankruptcy today and became the second-biggest residential lender to seek court protection this year. The filing added to signs that late payments have spread to homeowners with good credit records.

``With the subprime woes intensifying, the Fed might make a reference to this in their statement,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``It's negative for the dollar.''

A 2.7 percent decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index on Aug. 3 spread to Asian and European markets, encouraging investors to pare so-called carry trades. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index of shares dropped 1 percent, and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropped 3.5 percent.

The Swiss franc, another popular funding currency for the carry trade, rose 0.4 percent to 1.1863 against the dollar. The yen has risen 5.1 percent against the dollar since Bear Stearns Cos. said on June 22 that two of its hedge funds that made bets on subprime loans collapsed.

`Slowing Growth'

``The prospect of slowing growth raised market speculation that it will give the Fed flexibility to ease,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``This points to a negative picture for the dollar. It is important to look at Swiss franc-dollar. If the Swiss can close below 1.18, it will help euro-dollar to break the record level.''

The implied volatility of one-month dollar-yen options touched 10.6 percent, the highest in more than a year.

Higher volatility may discourage carry trades as it exposes these bets to more currency risk. The yen has gained 2.9 percent against the dollar since one-month volatility started rising from 5.725 percent on June 5, the lowest since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1995.

``We're seeing increased options demand on expectations the dollar will fall more against the yen,'' said Ryousei Ishida, senior vice president of foreign-exchange options at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo.

WEEKLY EUR/USD recap

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.3790 level and was supported around the $1.3610 level. The pair gained about 150 pips last week. Evidence emerged that the U.S. credit shakeout from migrated to other asset classes such as corporate bonds and to other global markets. St. Louis Fed chief Poole said the Fed will “not ignore” market uncertainty and won’t contribute to it with the Fed’s policy. The FOMC is expected to keep rates unchanged on Tuesday and acknowledge the reassessment of risk in the credit markets.

The ECB kept the refinancing rate unchanged at 4.00% with Trichet twice pledging “strong vigilance.” Most traders see a +25bps hike next month by the ECB.

Data released in the U.S. last week saw the Q2 employment cost index was up +0.9% with benefit costs up 1.3%; June personal spending was up +0.1%; June personal incomes were up +0.4%; the core PCE price index was up +0.1% and +1.9% y/y; July consumer confidence improved to 112.6 from 105.3 in June; June construction spending was down 0.3%; July Chicago PMI fell to 53.4 from 60.2; June pending home sales were up 5.0%; the July ISM manufacturing index fell to 53.8 from 56.0 in June; July ADP payrolls were up 48,000; weekly initial jobless claims were 4,000 to 307,000; continuing jobless claims were off 16,000 to 2.53 million; June factory orders were up +0.6%; July non-farm payrolls were up 92,000 with a cumulative -8,000 downward revision for May and June; July unemployment ticked up to 4.6% from 4.5%; July average hourly earnings were up +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y; and the July ISM services index moved lower to 55.8.

Data released in the eurozone last week saw German June wholesale sales up +0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y; the EMU-13 preliminary July HICP moderated to +1.8% from +1.9% in June; the EMU-13 July economic sentiment indicator fell to 111.0 from 111.7; the German July jobless rate at 3.715 million, up 28,000; June retail sales were up +0.7% m/m and off 0.8% y/y; the July PMI survey printed at 54.9, down from June’s 55.4 tally; EMU-13 June PPI was up +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y; and June retail sales were up +0.9% m/m and +0.4% y/y.

Technical Outlook

Last week’s high (1) was above the 23.6% retracement of the 1.3261-1.3851 range and last week’s low (2) was just below the 38.2% retracement of the same range. The 1.3840/ 1.3910/ 1.3970/ 1.4040/ 1.4125 levels represent upside resistance targets while the 1.3712/ 1.3626/ 1.3537/ 1.3420/ 1.3302/ 1.3273 levels represent downside support targets.

Dollar Falls on NFP's, to Continue Slide on Coming Fed Meeting

The US dollar tumbled for yet another trading day, as bearish Non Farm Payrolls data sent the greenback significantly lower against major trading counterparts. Officials reported that the domestic economy added a mere 92,000 jobs in the month of July?far below forecasts of a 127,000 gain through the period. The national unemployment rate subsequently jumped to 4.6 percent and left a pessimistic outlook for broader economic growth?leaving the dollar lower in its wake. A later tumble in the Dow Jones Industrial Average produced a small dollar bid, but later signs of recovery have left the trade-weighted Dollar Index at fresh two-week lows.


The Euro continued yesterday?s ascent, adding an impressive 90 points to buy $1.3785 through late New York trade. The British Pound was similarly bid, rallying 50 pips to $2.0423, while the dollar lost ¥0.50 to ¥118.72 Yen.
The widely anticipated Non Farm Payrolls data printed far below consensus estimates and sparked the prolonged USD drop. Soft labor market growth compounded recent fears of domestic economic slowdown and likewise led bond yields significantly lower through the period. (For more on NFP report, please see here) Given overall signs of weakness, markets have clearly begun to show hesitation over the future of domestic interest rates. The December Eurodollar futures contract, which settles to domestic short term interest rates, has now priced in a near 100 percent probability of a Federal Reserve 25 basis point rate cut by year-end 2007. Clearly, such expectations prove very bearish for the dollar?implying that further greenback losses are likely.

Later morning ISM Services data only further unsettled sentiment on the US economy, with the critical services sector showing its slowest growth in four months. The below-forecast headline print coincided with a lower Prices Paid result, implying that inflationary pressures continue to moderate in the broader services economy. Combined with yesterday?s ISM Manufacturing news and previous PCE Deflator prices figures, the Services report suggests that the Federal Reserve may significantly soften its stance on monetary policy through its upcoming meeting. According to DailyFX Currency Analyst Terri Belkas, Tuesday?s FOMC meeting may bring even further US dollar weakness.
Stock markets moved broadly lower on the day?s trade, with the S&P 500 a full percentage point off of yesterday?s close at 1,457.75. The NASDAQ Composite was likewise strongly lower, losing 0.9 percent 2,553.11. Large cap stocks were the least affected by the declines, however, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing a smaller 0.5 percent to 13,391.
Fixed income markets took advantage of recent market turmoil to head significantly higher on the trading day. The benchmark 10-year note traded nearly half a point higher to 98 and 13/32, with yields dropping to fresh three month lows of 4.70 percent.
?

I read from dailyfx forum

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

€

The euro lost marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3650 level and was capped around the $1.3680 level. Today’s range was relatively thin absent many economic data. As expected, European Central Bank kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.00% today but surprised the markets with a statement from ECB President Trichet wherein he stated “strong vigilance is of the essence to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialize.” Based on the ECB’s past use of similar statements, most traders believe the ECB will tighten monetary policy by +25bps in September. Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-13 June producer price inflation up 0.1% m/m and 2.3% y/y. In U.S. news, weekly initial jobless claims were up 4,000 to 307,000 while continuing jobless claims were off 16,000 to 2.53 million, Also, June factory orders were up +0.6%, an improvement over May’s -0.5% level. Tomorrow’s July non-farm payrolls number will be closely watched by the markets and estimates have been scaled down on account of yesterday’s weaker-than-expected ADP payrolls report. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3555 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥119.25 level and was supported around the ¥118.35 level. A late-day rally in U.S. equity markets yesterday saw diminished demand for yen as traders bargain-hunted and early yen gains in the Australasian session reversed course overnight. A Japanese Ministry of Finance official anonymously reported that most yen carry trades are “resistant to exchange rate fluctuations.” Data released in Japan overnight saw the July monetary base fall 2.3% y/y, down for the seventeenth consecutive month, while foreign investors were net sellers of Japanese equities for the first time in five weeks, selling ¥291.1 billion last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.67% to close at ¥16,984.11. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥117.25 level. The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥163.00 figure and was supported around the ¥161.55 level. The British pound and Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥240.15 and CHF 98.30 levels, respectively. In Chinese news, the yuan’s central parity rate was set at CNY 7.5723 vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, up from CNY 7.5660.

Yen Falls From 3-Month High Versus Euro as Risk Aversion Abates

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell from a three-month high versus the euro after U.S. stocks rallied, allaying concern that losses in subprime mortgages will hurt credit markets and growth.

The Japanese currency earlier gained against the euro and dollar as investors cut riskier assets funded by loans in Japan, a practice known as the carry trade. At 0.5 percent, Japan has the lowest interest rate among industrialized nations. The U.S. subprime debacle has led traders to sell stocks and bonds in countries such as Turkey, Iceland and Brazil.

``We are seeing a temporary relief after the sell-off overnight in riskier assets,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign exchange group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon. ``The market is reassessing the contagion from the credit market. It isn't clear how bad the subprime problem is and its impact on other sectors.''

The yen declined 0.3 percent to 162.71 per euro at 10:22 a.m. in New York. The Japanese currency earlier touched 160.47, the strongest since April 24. The yen also traded at 118.70 per dollar, from 118.61 yesterday. The Japanese currency earlier climbed to 117.60 per dollar, breaching the 118 level for the first time since April 19.

from 4xfindme

USDCHF,USDCAD Dollar continues to show positive dynamics, but alarms around it are still kept...

19:28 08/01/2007

So, yesterday's releases on economy of the USA were again positive. As a result it also brought at first to end of correction of the European currencies against dollar, and then, at the Asian session and since the beginning of European one today to dollar growth against the basic currencies.

Weakness of the American currency is still kept only against low-yield currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, which continued their growth. Here it is necessary to note nevertheless that the situation in the world stock markets continues to be stabilized, that, as a result, will most likely lead not only to delay of strengthening of the Japanese currency, but also will point out the end of fortnight correction of the basic currencies against yen and franc.

As a result, if today's data on business activity and on home sales for June in the USA will not bring unexpected surprises appeal of carry trade again will make yen cross-rates upward.

Let's remind, that yesterday's data on consumption and incomes for June in the USA, having been almost at a level of forecasts, did not lead to any change of a situation in the market.

So, an index of personal consumption in the USA made +0.1 % for June, at the forecast of +0.1 %, and the previous value of +0.5 %.

And the labor cost index in the USA for the second quarter made +0.9 %, at the forecast of +1.0 %, and the previous value of +0.8 %.

However, a pleasant surprise for dollar bulls became index of consumer confidence Conference Board in July which showed not only growth above predicted values, but also reached maximal values for last six years.

So, the parameter reached a level of 112.6 points, at the forecast of 105 points. And the previous value was also revised upwardly, from 103.9 points in June up to 105.3.

And components of the survey also supported a dollar exchange rate. We remind that the index of expectations in July made 94.8 points in comparison with 88.8 points, and the index of a current situation made 139.2 from 129.9 earlier. Thus, the index of annual expectations unexpectedly demonstrated decrease to 5.1 % from 5.4 % in June.

"A fly in the ointment" was the publication of Chicago PMI which was considerably below forecasts. We remind that a parameter in July achieved 53.4 points, at the forecast 58.0 and the previous value of 60.2.

However, many components of the report showed positive dynamics. For example, the index of the paid prices made 73.1 in comparison with 68.1 earlier, and the index of employment grew from 52.7 up to 61.6 points.

And the index of new orders continued its decrease and reached 53.4 points against 65.7 in June and 71.1 in May. Also the index of production demonstrated drop, having dipped to 59 points in July against 66.5 earlier. And the index of stocks decreased from 55.9 up to 55.1 points.

As a result, we do not exclude some correctional growth of euro and pound against dollar. And it, in turn, will allow dollar/franc "dive" more deeply under key levels 1.1960 - 1.2020, and to collect stops. The purpose of such movement is 1.1860.

At the rate the dollar/Canadian correctional movement downwards was ripened also. We recommend to sell the pair from the levels close to 1.0670 with stop, placed above 1.0700. The purpose of this correction id a level 1.0500.

from www.openforex.com