Thursday, May 15, 2008

EURO NEWS and prediksi forex

Dollar Rises as Stock Gains Encourage Demand for Higher Yields

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the yen as an increase in U.S. stocks encouraged investors to buy higher- yielding assets funded in Japan.

The 15-nation euro is overvalued by as much as 20 percent against the dollar, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said late yesterday. The Australian dollar fell against the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar and the pound as wage growth unexpectedly slowed last quarter.

``A stronger equity market is helping risk appetite,'' said Fabian Eliasson, vice-president of foreign exchange sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New York. ``In the short run, we are going to see higher dollar-yen.''

The dollar increased 0.4 percent to 105.13 yen at 10:06 a.m. in New York, from 104.75 yesterday. The dollar advanced 0.2 percent to $1.5445 per euro, from $1.5474. It touched the all- time low of $1.6019 on April 22. Japan's currency fell 0.2 percent to 162.32 per euro, from 162.10.

The Australian dollar dropped for a second day versus the U.S. dollar after a government report showed wage growth unexpectedly slowed last quarter, increasing concern economic growth is easing. The Aussie decreased 0.7 percent to 93.42 U.S. cents, 1.1 percent to 1.0705 versus the Canadian dollar and 0.5 percent to 2.0785 against the pound.

U.S. stocks advanced, led by financial shares, on a report showing slower-than forecast U.S. inflation and a narrower-than- estimated loss at mortgage-finance company Freddie Mac. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index increased 0.7 percent.

U.S. Inflation

Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent in April, following a 0.3 percent increase the previous month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an advance of 0.3 percent last month.

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations said in Washington on April 11 they were concerned about ``sharp fluctuations in major currencies'' and their ``possible implications for economic and financial stability.''

That message is being ``heard'' by financial markets, Lagarde said at a press conference in Brussels yesterday. The euro trading at $1.55 ``is still at 10 percent, 15 percent, 20 percent above the appropriate fundamentals,'' she said.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 92 percent chance the Fed will hold its target lending rate at 2 percent at its next meeting on June 25, compared with 94 percent odds yesterday. The balance of bets is for a cut of a quarter- percentage point. There's a 28 percent chance of an increase to 2.25 percent in September.

Dollar Outlook

The dollar will strengthen against most major currencies in the next six months as the Fed stops reducing interest rates, a survey of Bloomberg users showed.

The end of rate cuts will make American assets more attractive to international investors, according to U.S. respondents in the monthly Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index, which questioned 3,447 users from Chicago to London to Hong Kong. While users in the U.S. grew optimistic about the greenback, participants in Germany and France became pessimistic about the euro for the first time since the survey started in November.

The Fed has cut the target lending rate seven times since Sept. 18 to avert a recession, pushing the dollar down more than 10 percent versus the euro and yen.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

FOREX NEWS Prediction

Dollar Climbs on Speculation Fed to Halt Cuts, Losses Overdone

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the yen for the first time in six days as traders speculated the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates next month.

The currency increased from a three-week low versus the yen as a chart traders use to predict price movements signaled last week's 2.4 percent decline was too large to be sustained. The yen dropped against the South African rand and the Brazilian real as speculation the worst of the financial crisis is over led investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.

``It's not going to be an express train toward a much stronger dollar, but it will trade stronger slowly and gradually,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of foreign- exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. ``The U.S. is not going to have as deep a downturn as everyone initially portrayed.''

The dollar climbed 0.8 percent to 103.66 yen at 11:01 a.m. in New York, from 102.87 on May 9. It was the biggest gain since May 2. The euro increased 0.9 percent to 160.68 yen, from 159.21 yen, the largest one-day advance since April 16. The dollar traded at $1.5496 per euro, compared with $1.5482.

Traders in the futures market have turned bullish on the dollar versus the euro for the first time since December 2005. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the greenback versus the euro, known as net longs, was 21,315 on April 29, figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington show. There were net-short positions in each of the previous 123 weeks. Net longs were trimmed to 12,512 on May 6.

Dollar's Rally

The U.S. currency has rallied 3.5 percent since touching the all-time low of $1.6019 per euro on April 22. The dollar gained momentum late last month after Fed policy makers said ``substantial'' rate cuts since September would help foster growth. The dollar got a further boost from a Labor Department report showing U.S. employers eliminated fewer jobs in April than economists forecast.

The pound increased from a two-week low against the euro and climbed versus the dollar after a surge in U.K. producer prices led traders to reduce bets that the Bank of England will cut its 5 percent target lending rate next month. Sterling rose 0.2 percent to 79.05 pence per euro and 0.3 percent to $1.9605.

South Africa's rand strengthened against all of the major currencies on speculation Johannesburg-based MTN Group Ltd., Africa's biggest mobile-phone operator, may soon be bought by a foreign company. The rand increased 1 percent to 7.6535 against the dollar and 1.2 percent to 11.83 per euro.

Weaker Yen

The yen dropped 2 percent versus the rand, 1.5 percent against the real and 1.3 percent against Norway's krone on speculation investors will increase carry trades, in which they get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher. Japan's 0.5 percent benchmark interest rate compares with 11.75 percent in Brazil, 11.5 percent in South Africa and 5.5 percent in Norway.

The U.S. currency's 14-day stochastic oscillator versus the yen was 8.1 on May 9 and 35.67 today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A level below 20 suggests the currency has fallen too fast. The chart measures the closing price of a currency relative to its highs and lows during a particular period to gauge whether it will rise or fall.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 84 percent chance the Fed will hold its target lending rate at 2 percent at its next meeting on June 25, up from 82 percent odds on May 9. The balance of bets is for a cut of a quarter-percentage point. There's a 10 percent chance of an increase to 2.25 percent in September. The central bank has lowered the fed funds target 3.25 percentage points since September.

Fed Rate Outlook

``It's doubtful that the Fed can afford to cut more,'' said Benedikt Germanier, an analyst at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``We are short on the euro-dollar. Our three-month forecast is $1.47.''

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in a speech today in Illinois that the central bank's current interest-rate stance is ``appropriate.''

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the dollar against currencies of six trading partners, rose to 73.214 today, from 73.050 on May 9. It dropped to a record of 70.698 on March 17. The dollar strengthened 0.6 percent to 1.0477 versus the Swiss franc.

The U.S. currency will increase to $1.50 per euro and trade at 102 yen by Dec. 31, according to the median forecast of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

A Commerce Department report tomorrow will probably show U.S. retail sales fell 0.2 percent in April, following a 0.2 percent gain the prior month, according to the median forecast of 65 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey.