tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-81221728488583475202024-03-14T09:40:40.518+07:00Market Review BlogMarket review and money management blogUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger82125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-41908173525433391842011-09-18T14:25:00.000+07:002011-09-18T14:25:09.950+07:00China invests billions in oil sands<img alt="" src="http://www.chron.com/mediaManager/?controllerName=image&action=get&id=1545744&width=628&height=471" />
<i>China invests billions in oil sands</i>
Robert Lee, a lab technician at ConocoPhillips' Surmont oil sands project in Alberta, examines a vial of water and oil sediment. Looking on is Perry Berkenpas, vice president of oil sands operations for ConocoPhillips Canada. / HC
Dealmaking
For decades, U.S. and Canadian companies were the biggest investors in Canada's oil sands reserves. But other countries, led by China, have poured billions into Canada's oil sands projects in the past few years.
2005
China's CNOOC buys 17 percent stake in Calgary-based MEG Energy Corp.
2010
PetroChina International Investment Co. buys 60 percent working interest in Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.'s MacKay River and Dover oil sands projects.
Sinopec (China Petrochemical Corp.) buys ConocoPhillips' 9 percent stake in Syncrude Canada, the world's biggest oil sands producer.
China Investment Corp. buys 45 percent stake in an oil sands project owned by Penn West Energy Trust.
Thailand-based PTT Exploration and Production buys 40 percent share in Statoil's Kai Kos Dehseh oil sands project.
2011
CNOOC acquires the bankrupt OPTI Canada, whose main asset was a 35 percent working interest in Nexen's Long Lake oil sands project.
Source: Houston Chronicle research
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FORT McMURRAY, Alberta - As U.S. companies look toward oil riches in northern Canada, they're encountering increasing competition - as well as some much-needed cash infusions - from the Far East.
U.S. and Canadian companies have dominated Alberta's oil sands for decades. Now, though, Chinese firms are rushing to snap up Canadian oil sands resources and invest in ongoing projects - to the tune of $15 billion in the past 18 months in Alberta alone.
They are motivated by a desire to jump into one of the world's lowest-risk oil investments and to quench the exploding energy demands of Asian markets - even though getting the product from Canada to Asia is just a pipe dream now.
The foreign funding can help pay for what research firm IHS CERA estimates will be $100 billion in spending on oil sands projects over the next decade.
And for a growing number of U.S. oil companies, many based in Houston, the infusion of Chinese cash in Canadian projects is welcome funding for some capital-intensive oil sands projects.
"Many of the actual oil companies - no matter where they are from - are very interested in partnering," said Jackie Forrest, the Calgary, Alberta-based head of oil sands research for IHS CERA. "That can help raise capital and, in some cases, also bring expertise and knowledge to the partnership."
Most of the recent deals have been by Chinese companies buying shares in existing projects. For instance, Sinopec spent $4.65 billion last year buying ConocoPhillips' 9 percent stake in Syncrude Canada Ltd., the world's biggest oil sands producer. And earlier this summer, state-owned CNOOC spent $2.1 billion acquiring the bankrupt OPTI Canada, whose main asset was a 35 percent working interest in Nexen's Long Lake oil sands project in Alberta.
Plants want to expand
That influx of capital can help companies ramp up production and expand operations at existing projects, said Alberta Minister of Energy Ronald Liepert.
"Plants that are currently 25,000 barrels a day, they want to expand to 100,000 barrels a day, and they don't have the capital to do that," he said. "So they're actually on the prowl for investment - and there's real money in China."
China isn't the only country getting into the oil sands game from across the Pacific. Companies based in Thailand and Australia also have made plays recently for Canadian oil sands projects and portfolios.
Major draws are the low geological risks of Canada's well-explored oil sands, and the nation's political stability.
"You know the oil is there, so the risk is more in executing the project, getting it online and getting the capital associated with building the project," Forrest said.
The Canadian market offers fewer barriers, said Nick Olds, the senior vice president of oil sands for ConocoPhillips Canada.
"With the oil sands, you've got a significant resource - 173 billion barrels of oil recoverable with current technology, and that's only going to get better," Olds said.
"If you look at other areas of the world," he said, "it is very difficult to get access to (the) resource." By contrast, the oil sands in Canada are "not state-controlled and they're not government-owned."
The "oil" in the Canadian oil sands is bitumen, a hydrocarbon that is as hard as a hockey puck at 50 degrees and can be refined into synthetic crude oil or other products. The oil sands in Alberta are a mixture of sand, water, clay and bitumen that is extracted by open-pit mining and by less invasive in situ techniques that use heat to draw the bitumen directly from the underground reservoirs.
Canada's oil sands bounty makes it second only to Saudi Arabia in its reserve base. Its recoverable oil is estimated to be more than 10 times U.S. reserves.
Since China doesn't have similar oil sands deposits, the Asian companies investing in Canadian crude aren't so concerned with getting technology and know-how out of their deals. Instead, they are getting the promise of strong returns and the chance of eventually sending some of that oil home.
"There is a long-term plan to get oil to the East, and it will happen," said Liepert, the Alberta energy minister.
Right now, the only real export market for Canada's crude is the United States. But the Midwest refineries that are served by existing border-crossing pipelines are expected to reach their maximum capacity for processing the northern oil supply by 2015, according to IHS CERA.
Plans for pipeline
Asian markets loom as a new and promising opportunity for oil sands developers eager to command global prices for the product, but there is no immediate avenue to deliver the crude to Asia. The most likely corridor - the Northern Gateway pipeline proposed by Calgary-based Enbridge - has been ensnared in disputes with environmentalists and indigenous communities worried about damage from oil spills.
Last month Enbridge disclosed it has enough contracts with shippers to fill the pipeline, which would transport crude 731 miles from Alberta to Kitmat, B.C., for tanker transport to Asian markets.
Although Enbridge isn't saying what companies have signed up to use the pipeline, China's Sinopec has confirmed it is helping to finance the $5.5 billion project.
A new avenue to Asian markets also would benefit U.S. oil companies with big Canadian crude reserves, including Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Shell.
If it gets past regulatory hurdles, the pipeline could be completed as early as 2017.
"We want to become a global energy superpower," said Liepert. "And you're not going to become a global superpower of anything with one customer."
<a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.chron.com/business/article/China-invests-billions-in-oil-sands-2176114.php">source</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-90041252096418119272011-09-16T22:40:00.002+07:002011-09-16T22:40:30.002+07:00FOREX Euro down after rally this week, still in downtrend, what's next?Today I visited <a href="http://reuters.com" rel="nofollow"> reuters.com </ a> and reading an article about forex and I found this article, <b>Euro down after rally this week , still in a downtrend</b>. Then what will happen next, especially in this week? OK we read the news first!
The euro dropped on Friday, as investors locked in profits after this week's rally sparked by global central bank action to boost liquidity, and could stay weak on any negative news coming out of an EU finance ministers' meeting.
Analysts said investors also sold the euro, pushing it to session lows against the dollar, after the Bank of Portugal said the Portuguese island of Madeira failed to report information about debts from previous years that amounted to 0.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2010. [ID:nLDE78F07C].
"We had a pretty good run-up in euro/dollar the last couple of days from $1.37 to $1.39 because of positive news this week. So we've had a bit of a short squeeze," said Ray Attrill, senior currency strategist, at BNP Paribas in New York.
However, he added that market players remained bearish on the euro and those expecting any new policy initiatives from the European Union finance minister's meeting will be disappointed.
The euro was last down 0.5 percent at $1.38081 EUR=EBS, off a one-week peak of $1.39370 hit on Thursday but held above a seven-month trough below $1.35 plumbed on Monday. The euro has gained around 1.8 percent so far this week, its best weekly performance since the week of July 24 on trading platform EBS.
It fell to a session low of $1.37530, with traders saying it extended losses after stop-loss orders were triggered on the break of $1.37700, with more stops at $1.37500.
Overall though investors were reluctant to take large positions ahead of the outcome of an EU meeting in Poland, at which Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is a participant.
Geithner told EU finance ministers on Friday they should end loose talk about a euro zone break-up and work more closely with the European Central Bank to tackle the debt crisis. He also said Europe would not see similar global financial coordination as there was in 2009, but that Washington would do what it could to help. For more, see [ID:nL3E7KG0KC].
Technical charts indicated the euro could find support around $1.3738, the 23.6 percent retracement of the fall from $1.45500 on Aug.29 to $1.34949 on Sept.12.
The euro had hit a one-week high after a coordinated move by central banks on Thursday to provide dollars. Funding strains, evident through the cross currency basis swap market, which had hit some euro zone banks, including large French banks and were impacting the euro, had appeared to be easing.
The three-month euro/dollar cross currency basis swap EURCBS3M=ICAP, or the relative premium for swapping euro LIBOR for dollar LIBOR tightened to around minus 88 basis points from on Friday, a day after the action from global central banks. It narrowed from as wide as minus 115 basis points on Monday.
Wider spreads reflect elevated demand to borrow U.S. dollars in the currency forward market and often supports the greenback's spot value against the euro
In the options market euro/dollar month implied vols - measure of investor demand to protect against spot price volatility - were steady around 14.20 percent and off this week's high of around 18 percent EURVOL.
FED EASING EYED
While investors remain wary of the euro, they are also reluctance to take long positions in the dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where policymakers may flag another round of quantitative easing to boost the economy.
That move should weigh on the dollar and help riskier assets rally, although analysts said some market players thought "Operation Twist" was the more likely outcome.
In such a scenario the Fed would buy longer dated Treasury bonds and sell shorter dated ones to keep rates at the longer end lower without expanding the balance sheet.
Daragh Maher, FX strategist at Credit Agricole in London said the "Operation Twist" could be positive for the dollar because it would stimulate growth. "It would be seen as delivering stimulus without printing....dollars."
The ICE Futures' dollar index was last up 0.4 percent at 76.551 .DXY. Against the yen, the dollar remained stuck at 76.730 yen JPY=EBS, flat on the day. The threat of Japanese intervention has helped keep dollar/yen in a tight range and above its all-time low of 75.94 yen. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in London; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)
<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/16/markets-forex-idUSS1E78F0EY20110916" rel="nofollow">source</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-40692486079656339382011-08-27T15:05:00.000+07:002011-08-27T15:05:59.072+07:00Franc Falls as Bernanke Improves Sentiment on MarketsHi All today I check this blog and want to read somethink but I can't so.. I just copying this news about <b>Franc Falls as Bernanke Improves Sentiment on Markets</b>!!<br />
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You can read the news bellow!<br />
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The Swiss franc slumped today after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. S. Bernanke spoke today, improving sentiment on markets, while rumors abound that Switzerland’s policy makers are preparing another action to weaken the Swiss currency.<br />
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<img src="http://www.topforexnews.com/images/Swiss_Franc.jpg" alt="" /><br />
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There are different opinions on what steps Switzerland is going to take in order to weaken its currency. Some analysts speculate that the Swiss National Bank is preparing another intervention. Some experts predict that local banks may impose charges for franc deposits. Whatever the truth is, the rumors undermine franc’s strength.<br />
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Optimism, caused by the speech of Chairman Bernanke, influenced the franc even more, perhaps. Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, thought:<br />
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What Bernanke said suggested was perhaps the world’s economic weakness is not so bad that it warrants another round of QE, and that helped to damp demand for the franc. There has also been speculation about the SNB’s possible further action on the franc, which makes the market cautious.<br />
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USD/CHF climbed from 0.7928 to 0.8060 as of 20:11 GMT today after touching the daily high of 0.8157, the highest level since July 22. EUR/CHF advanced from 1.1401 to 1.1684. CHF/JPY sank from 97.61 to 95.05, while earlier it reached the lowest price since June 20 — 94.44.<br />
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If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Swiss Franc, feel free to post them using the commentary form below. source: <a href="http://www.topforexnews.com/2011/08/26/franc-falls-as-bernanke-improves-sentiment-on-markets/">http://www.topforexnews.com/2011/08/26/franc-falls-as-bernanke-improves-sentiment-on-markets/</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-67638372715329674972011-03-04T23:50:00.005+07:002011-03-04T23:50:23.523+07:00Fed buys $1.5 bln in TIPS; Treasurys stay upNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $1.5 billion in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities on Friday, as part of a program that is the centerpiece of the Fed's easy monetary policy. Dealers offered the Fed $4.261 billion debt maturing from 2013 through 2041. After the buyback, Treasurys stayed higher. Yields on 10-year notes, /quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y (UST10Y 3.51, -0.04, -1.15%) , which move inversely to prices, fell 5 basis points to 3.51%Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-35153701410309345662010-07-31T12:08:00.000+07:002010-07-31T12:08:22.267+07:00Risk Appetite Subdued Ahead Of US GDP- USD FirmsHai there, welcome back to market review blog. Now we have news from GDP USD. Check it out<br />
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Asia Pacific markets were lower after a lackluster performance in US equities saw the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq fall by .3%, .4%, and .6% respectively. Disappointing topline revenues and softer guidance reports weighed on sentiment one day before the US is set to release Q2 GDP figures. Remarks made by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard also helped subdue risk appetite after he suggested that the US is moving closer to Japanese-style deflation and may need additional quantitative easing measures. The Hang Seng index, the Shanghai SE composite, and the S&P/ASX 200 index were off by .3%, .4%, and .7% respectively. The Nikkei 225 was the worst performer, losing more than 1.6% after a report showed June industrial production had fallen by 1.5% m/m. Consensus estimates had called for an uptick to .2% from .1% a month earlier. <a href="http://marketb.blogspot.com">Japanese markets</a> have fallen more than 2% in the past three sessions amid ongoing concerns regarding the health of the US recovery and persistent strength in the yen. The dollar slid to a 8 month low versus the yen, as uneasy investors seek haven ahead of today's US data flow.<br />
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Commodities were mostly lower, with crude oil paring gains to trade at $77.70per barrel at 10am in London. Gold holds just beneath $1170 per ounce after failing to break through the $1160 support level earlier in the week. Risk-off trades supported the dollar, with the index trading higher by .6% to 81.90. Treasury yields continue to fall, with the 10-year note falling to 2.95% and the 5-year yielding 1.63%.<br />
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<b>Euro Retreats After Testing 1.31</b><br />
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The euro reversed yesterday's gains after testing the 1.31 handle early in the US session. Disappointing German retail sales figures accelerated haven flows, pushing the single currency as low as 1.2980. Eurozone unemployment was in line with expectations, with the figure printing at 10.0%. Support is seen at the lower bound trendline of the ascending channel at 1.2960. Downside risk for the euro increases with a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the July 20th and 29th crests, at 1.2920, with targets eyed lower at the 1.28 figure, and 1.2740. Interim resistance stands at 1.3045, backed by the 1.31 handle, and 1.3150.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-31909331175207457062010-05-22T05:59:00.000+07:002010-05-22T05:59:32.108+07:00Euro Gains on Speculation Traders Exiting Bets on Its DeclineThe market review blog today news Euro Gains on Speculation Traders Exiting Bets on Its Decline.<br />
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The euro climbed to its highest level in a week against the dollar amid speculation investors who bet on its decline amid Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis had to buy back the currency as it strengthened for a third day.<br />
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The euro headed for its largest five-day gain in eight months after yesterday rising from its lowest level since 2006 as traders theorized the European Central Bank may intervene to support the currency. German lawmakers today approved their country’s share of a $1 trillion euro-region bailout. The yen swing between gains and losses against the dollar as U.S. stocks gained for the first time in four days.<br />
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“There was certainly capitulation,” said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., world’s largest custodial bank, with more than $20 trillion in assets under administration. “It was scorched earth yesterday and players are on the sideline licking their wounds. It may take weeks, or even months, for risk appetite to return.”<br />
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The euro advanced 0.6 percent to $1.2567 at 10:24 a.m. in New York from $1.2487 yesterday, after earlier rising to $1.2672, the strongest since May 13. The currency, which touched a four-year low of $1.2144 on May 19, has gained 1.7 percent versus the greenback this week, the most since the five days ending Sept. 11, 2009.<br />
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‘More Decisive’<br />
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The shared currency gained 0.9 percent to 113.02 yen from 111.99. It yesterday plunged as much as 3.8 percent to the weakest against the Japan’s currency since November 2001. The yen traded at 89.75 per dollar from 89.68. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose as much as 0.9 percent after earlier falling as much as 1.5 percent that dragged it below its weakest level during the May 6 <a href="http://marketb.blogspot.com">market rout</a>.<br />
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The euro gained before European Union President Herman Van Rompuy hosts a meeting of finance ministers in Brussels today to discuss reforms to economic governance.<br />
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“Today’s meeting is an excuse to indulge in some short covering,” said Audrey Childe-Freeman, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. “There is little chance of any more big announcements today, but like the rumors of intervention it’s enough to give a little relief to the euro for now.”<br />
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Hedge funds and other large speculators on May 11 increased bets on a decline in the euro to 113,890 contracts more than those anticipating a gain, the most ever, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.<br />
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Europe’s single currency has dropped 5.9 percent this year against its developed-world counterparts, according to Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes.<br />
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<b>Carry Trade</b><br />
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Today’s vote by German lawmakers allayed market concern they would balk at approving a second emergency loan package in as many weeks. The lower house of parliament voted 319 to 73 in favor of contributing as much as 148 billion euros ($184 billion) to indebted European states to backstop the euro; 195 lawmakers abstained. The upper house, or Bundesrat, also passed the measure, sending it on to President Horst Koehler for signature.<br />
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Brazil’s real dropped 6.6 percent against the yen this week as price fluctuations remained at elevated levels, sapping demand for carry trades, in which investors buy higher-yielding assets with amounts borrowed in nations with low interest rates. Japan’s benchmark lending rate of 0.1 percent, less than the 9.5 percent in Brazil, has made the yen popular for funding such transactions.<br />
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JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s implied-volatility index for six major currencies versus the dollar climbed to as high as 16.95 percent yesterday, the most since April 2009. The index traded at 16.22 percent today.<br />
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“The environment is becoming unstable with volatility at very high levels,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “The yen is about the only currency that does really well in this environment.”<br />
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‘Extremely Antsy’<br />
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Higher volatility suggests a greater risk for carry trades, where gains in the funding currency erode profits from the interest-rate differential, and may cause losses as it becomes more expensive.<br />
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The yen fell earlier versus the dollar after comments by Finance Minister Naoto Kan raised speculation Japanese authorities may act to weaken the currency. The yen surged more than 2 percent against the greenback yesterday.<br />
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“We must closely monitor the situation to make sure this won’t cause excessive yen appreciation,” he said.<br />
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A stronger yen reduces the competitiveness of Japanese goods overseas. Japan’s large manufacturers expect the currency to average 91 per dollar this fiscal year, according to a recent Bank of Japan Tankan survey.<br />
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“Yen below 90 is already an expensive yen,” Steven Englander, head of Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup in New York said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today. “There is an opportunity to short the yen at 90.”<br />
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‘Elevated Threat’<br />
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There is an “elevated threat” the central banks of Europe, the U.S. and Japan will intervene in currency markets though the threshold has not yet been reached, according to Morgan Stanley.<br />
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The chance of joint intervention by the Group of Three has increased to 30 percent, above the long-term average of 12 percent, Sophia Drossos, co-head of global foreign-exchange strategy at the U.S. investment bank, wrote in a note to clients. The probability is based on a model that takes into account factors such exchange-rate momentum and market positioning.<br />
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“The strongest warning signals in our model have been coming from the pace of euro decline rather than the direction of the move itself,” New York-based Drossos wrote in the note yesterday. “Other indicators in our model suggest euro weakness does not appear out of line with fundamentals or policy preferences.”Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-43168334198596097432010-04-30T07:55:00.000+07:002010-04-30T07:55:41.636+07:00Euro Sales Extend as Morgan Stanley Mulls EU BreakupThis is forex times ... April 29 (Bloomberg)- Investors are abandoning the euro at a rate not seen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as Europe’s worsening fiscal crisis threatens to splinter the 16-nation currency union.<br />
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Pension funds and banks sold euros this month at the fastest pace since the second half of 2008, when the currency tumbled more than 25 percent against the dollar between mid-July and the end of October, according to Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the world’s biggest custodian of financial assets with $23 trillion. Demand for options giving the right to sell the euro against the dollar versus those allowing for purchases rose yesterday to the highest level since November 2008.<br />
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“The assumptions that went into the makeup of the euro- zone, and hence the euro, are now being brought into question and revalued,” said Eric Busay, a manager of currencies and international bonds in Sacramento at the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension, with $202 billion under management. “There are differences, and screaming differences, that have now been shown between the regions of the euro-zone.”<br />
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While the euro became a rival to the dollar after the common currency’s inception in 1999, the debt crisis that began in Greece shows how it is being shaken by one country comprising 2.6 percent of the region’s economy. The euro’s 11 percent decline in the past six months made it the worst performer among its 16 most-traded peers. Standard & Poor’s cut the credit ratings on Greece, Portugal and Spain in the last two days.<br />
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<b>Central-Bank Holdings</b><br />
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Credit-default swaps on the debt of Greece, Portugal and Spain climbed to record highs as the 16 nations making up the euro failed to bridge economic and political differences fast enough for traders.<br />
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The euro fell to a one-year low of $1.3115 yesterday in New York, down from 2009’s high of $1.5144 on Nov. 25, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in Berlin the “stability of the euro zone” was at stake if a 45 billion-euro ($59 billion) loan package for Greece orchestrated by the International Monetary Fund can’t be delivered soon.<br />
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Currency strategists are having a hard time keeping up with the decline. The median average of 32 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg is for the currency to end the year at $1.32. In February, the estimate was $1.43. The euro was at $1.3236 at 3:25 p.m. in London today.<br />
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Dumping Bonds</b><br />
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Bank of New York Mellon’s chief currency strategist, Simon Derrick in London, said the euro may tumble to $1.10 by the end of 2011. Morgan Stanley predicts it will trade at $1.24 by year- end. Without central bank support, the euro’s long-term fair value is $1.20, UBS AG said April 26.<br />
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Investors are on course to sell a net 50 billion euros of euro-region bonds this year, compared with purchases of 225 billion euros in 2009, according to a Nomura Holdings Inc. projection.<br />
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Central banks reduced the share of euros in their $8.1 trillion of reserves to 27.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 from 28 percent in the previous three months, according to Morgan Stanley calculations based on IMF data. The figure was about 17 percent when the euro was introduced 11 years ago.<br />
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“Central bankers and institutional investors have spent 10 years pricing out the likelihood of a euro-zone break-up, and now they have to price it in again,” said Emma Lawson, a currency strategist in London at Morgan Stanley. “The euro will no longer have this additional support going forward.”<br />
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‘Shift in Attitudes’<br />
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The euro’s one-month option risk-reversal rate fell to minus 1.97 percent yesterday, the lowest level since Nov. 4, 2008, and down from minus 0.9 two weeks earlier, signaling a relative increase in demand for puts, which grant traders the right to sell the currency. It was at minus 1.7 percent today.<br />
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“Euro weakness is driven by a broad shift in investor attitudes, a shift which goes well beyond shorter-term foreign- exchange position changes within hedge funds,” Nomura foreign- exchange analysts Jennifer Hau in London and Jens Nordvig in New York wrote in an April 20 report to clients.<br />
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The euro, introduced on Jan. 1, 1999, at a rate of about $1.17, weakened to 82.30 U.S. cents in 2000 as the region’s economy slumped amid the bursting of the dot-com bubble. It peaked at $1.6038 in July 2008 as the global financial crisis worsened.<br />
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While the European Union shares a common monetary policy, members are responsible for their own fiscal decisions. That allowed Greece’s budget deficit to expand to almost 14 percent of its gross domestic product, exceeding the EU’s 3 percent limit without penalty. Germany’s is 3.2 percent of its GDP.<br />
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‘Vulnerable Spot’<br />
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Greece’s $357 billion economy is 2.6 percent of the euro zone’s $13.6 trillion and compares with $3.65 trillion for Germany, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.<br />
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Even though Merkel called for a quick resolution of the aid package for Greece, she has delayed German approval of loans in the face of voter opposition. Almost 60 percent of Germans don’t want to help Greece, the Die Welt newspaper reported this week, citing a survey of 1,009 people.<br />
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“The problem with Europe, and people had forgotten about this over the past decade, is that the experiment of monetary union without political union, and without any sort of federalism across the euro-zone, puts them in a very vulnerable spot,” Scott Mather, head of global portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Munich, said in a Bloomberg radio interview on April 26.<br />
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‘Nationalistic’ Tendencies<br />
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“So when push comes to shove and you have these large imbalances that develop between countries, it is very likely that they go back to the old world of being more nationalistic,” said Mather, whose Newport Beach, California- based firm runs the $220 billion Total Return Fund, the world’s biggest bond fund.<br />
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The outlook for the euro and the dollar are both poor, according to Kenneth Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist and professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. President Barack Obama has increased U.S. marketable debt to an unprecedented $7.76 trillion to fund a budget deficit the government predicts will swell to $1.6 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30.<br />
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“There’s a tremendous surge to diversify out of the dollar, and the euro is still the main alternative,” Rogoff said in a telephone interview. “Both the euro and the dollar have their longer-term vulnerabilities.”<br />
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Since 2001 the percentage of currency reserves held in dollars has fallen to 62.1 percent from 72.7 percent, according to the IMF in Washington.<br />
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‘Great Solution’<br />
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Mundell said the Greek crisis is a fiscal issue, not a broader credibility peril for Europe’s common currency.<br />
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“It’s not a euro problem; the euro has been a great solution,” Mundell, a professor at Columbia University in New York, said in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television. “It’s a deficit and debt problem.”<br />
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Mundell said there must be conditions attached to the financing package for Greece with a year-by-year target to reduce the country’s debt and cut its deficit “well below 3 percent” of GDP.<br />
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“It could be handled if the Greeks would be able to demonstrate to Germany and the other countries that they will keep the line and do this,” Mundell said. “There has to be that transformation, otherwise the alternative is a big restructuring of the Greek debt.”<br />
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Bigger Than TARP<br />
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The euro’s weakness may also help Europe’s economy rebound as its exports become more competitive. Bundesbank President Axel Weber said April 26 that Germany’s recovery will gather steam in the second quarter. The nation’s exports rose 5.1 percent in February from the previous month, the most since June 2009, a government report showed on April 9.<br />
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To fix the region’s fiscal crisis the EU may need a plan larger than the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program deployed by the U.S. after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.<br />
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Lower credit ratings on EU nations may force banks to boost the amount of capital they’re required to hold against bets on sovereign debt, said Brian Yelvington, head of fixed-income strategy at broker-dealer Knight Libertas LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. While bank capital rules give a risk weighting of zero percent for government debt rated AA- or higher, it jumps to 50 percent for debt graded BBB+ to BBB- on the S&P scale and 100 percent for BB+ to B-.<br />
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Soaring Yields</b><br />
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Yields on Greek two-year notes soared to a record 26 percent yesterday. Portugal’s jumped to 7.05 percent and Spain’s reached 2.53 percent. S&P lowered its rating on Greece by three steps to BB+, or below investment grade, from BBB+ on April 27, minutes after cutting Portugal to A- from A+. It reduced Spain’s rating one step to AA from AA+ yesterday.<br />
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“The euro is not the euro we initially bought into,” said Roddy Macpherson, investment director in Edinburgh at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Ltd., which manages the equivalent of $216 billion of assets. “The whole confidence in the euro has taken a bit of a bashing. We’re short the euro.”Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-51209900792315100072010-04-27T06:40:00.000+07:002010-04-27T06:40:08.333+07:00Pound Rises with Increasing U.K. House Prices<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.topforexnews.com/images/Pound.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.topforexnews.com/images/Pound.jpg" /></a></div>The <a href="http://marketb.blogspot.com/">Great Britain pound gained today</a>, paring its previous losses, after the report about the rising house prices increased the confidence that the economic recovery in the U.K. is strengthening.<br />
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These news have brought necessary refreshment to support the sterling’s performance after the concerns about the budget deficit and the uncertainty about the election’s outcome. In fact, the talks began that the Conservatives will win the election and will form the government strong enough to deal with the budget shortage, further strengthening the pound. The resulting optimism let some analysts expect that the pound will rise to 1.56 level against the U.S. dollar.<br />
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GBP/USD traded at 1.5472 as of 13:00 GMT today after opening at 1.5384. EUR/GBP traded near 0.8620 down from its opening level of 0.8673.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-29864321916248763562010-04-27T06:31:00.000+07:002010-04-27T06:31:27.944+07:00Canadian Dollar News, He Remains Near Parity<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.topforexnews.com/images/Canadian_Dollar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.topforexnews.com/images/Canadian_Dollar.jpg" /></a></div>Hi there, how about your forex today? Lets see this Canadian Dollar news today! The Canadian dollar trades near parity with its U.S. counterpart as the traders await the outcome of the 45 billion euro aid package, provided by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to Greece.<br />
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With the clarity about the bailout the global equity markets will be spurred, boosting the commodity currencies. The Loonie, as the Canadian currency commonly nicknamed, can be considered such currency as its performance depends on the moves of the equities and the commodities, like earlier, when the currency dropped after the prices for the oil, the biggest nation’s export, declined.<br />
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The experts think that outcome of the Greece’s crisis and the reaction of the markets on it will have significant impact on the Canadian dollar performance. Though, even if the rescue will be considered successful, the optimism for the European economy may be short-lived.<br />
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USD/CAD traded near 1.0007 as of 21:37 GMT at its opening rate today. EUR/CAD traded at about 1.3406 after opening at 1.3331.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-88708409980118859772010-04-26T06:34:00.001+07:002010-04-27T06:37:52.451+07:00Social Media Marketing WorksYou will be surprised to know that every second million people access social network such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and MySpace account to communicate and just to be socialized virtually. This absolutely is very much profitable for improving internet marketing. The overflowing visitors of a social network will be a good market for any products and services. Internet marketing is a mere project of smart work. Therefore, it needs only excellent strategy to boost the website traffic and increase a conversion number. The point of a good marketing strategy is to gain as many visitors as possible. The social network sites will be one of the best facilities to do so. It is the place where thousands and even millions people are gathering-searching for anything.<br />
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There are always chances for those visitors to view the products or services that are being advertised in such social networks. <a href="http://www.flowtown.com/">Social media marketing</a> is simply effective to use. <a href="http://www.flowtown.com/blog/category/facebook">Facebook marketing</a> is definitely a good decision that will be any internet marketing support. The only thing that the internet marketers should do is to contact a reliable platform to help them connect with their potential customers. In conclusion, with a media like <a href="http://www.facebook.com/">facebook</a>, a good business platform with excellent expertise, and strong business relationship, internet marketing will reach a success.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-20112169006174250032010-04-24T11:05:00.000+07:002010-04-24T11:05:27.713+07:00Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)This is Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400) use this for analysys your trading...<br />
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€<br />
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The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3375 level and was supported around the $1.3200 figure. The common currency retraced some of its intraweek losses after Greece officially requested financial assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The European Commission, European Central Bank, and the Eurogroup reported they are “taking note” of Greece’s request to “activate the financial support mechanism,” adding they “will decide upon the activation of this mechanism.” There is market talk that Greece will receive its first funding tranche before 19 May. The speed with which the European Union agrees to rescue Greece will partially be determined by the speed with which German Chancellor Merkel can push the unpopular bailout through the German legislature. Yesterday, Greece’s debt ratings were downgraded by Moody’s Investor Services. The activation of the financial assistance package for Greece will provide the country with a little bit of financial stability but there is talk that Greece will require well in excess of €100 billion in aid from the international community. Additionally, the euro may still continue to probe new multi-month lows because there is a higher threat that contagion will see Greece’s fiscal problems move to other highly-indebted eurozone countries including Portugal and Spain. G-7 and G-20 officials will discuss sovereign credit risk, exchange rates, Greece, global financial reform, and other key topical issues when they convene this weekend in Washington, D.C. Eurozone February industrial new orders were up 1.5% m/m and 12.2% y/y in data released today. Also, the German April Ifo business climate index rallied to 101.6 from 98.2 while the April Ifo current assessment index improved to 99.3 and the April Ifo expectations index rallied to 101.9. Also, French March consumer spending was up 1.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. In U.S. news, data released today saw March durable goods orders decline 1.3%, a reversal from the revised prior reading of +1.1%, while the ex-transportation component was up 2.8%, up from the revised prior reading of 1.7%. Also, March new home sales were up 26.9% y/y to an annualized 411,000 units, a multi-decade record-setting pace. Press reports suggest Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is not convinced about the timing of asset sales to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3175 level.<br />
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¥/ CNY<br />
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The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥94.20 level and was supported around the ¥93.30 level. The pair continues to rise as there are increasing signs the U.S. economic recovery is taking root. The Japanese media is reporting Bank of Japan may raise its consumer price index forecast for fiscal year 2011 to near zero per cent growth, up from January’s estimate of -0.2%. Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa spoke yesterday and reported inflation targets are one cause of asset price bubbles. It is likely that Shirakawa and other BoJ officials will resist the government’s likely call to adopt an inflation target, perhaps as high as 2% per year. Ahead of this weekend’s G-7 and G-20 meetings in Washington, D.C., Shirakawa said exchange rates should not be utilized to resolve trade disputes. Data released in Japan overnight saw the February all-industry activity index decline 2.3% m/m, a reversal from the upwardly revised +3.4% climb in January. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.32% to close at ¥10,914.46. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥96.85 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥125.20 level and was supported around the ¥123.40 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥144.50 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8274 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8264. Attention will be focused on the G-7 and G-20 meetings in Washington, D.C. this weekend to determine how much multilateral pressure there is on China to revalue its yuan currency. Many China-watchers believe China may allow the yuan to appreciate at any time between now and the end of the quarter. Data released in China overnight saw the March leading index decline to 104.98 from the revised prior reading of 105.11.<br />
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₤<br />
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The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.5295 level and was capped around the $1.5400 figure. Data released in the U.K. today saw Q1 gross domestic product up 0.2% q/q and off 0.3% y/y, lower-than-expected on the quarterly basis and stronger-than-expected on the year-over-year basis. Prime Minister Brown will likely note these data suggest the economy is accelerating while his opponents in the 6 May General Election will note that economic growth remains very weak. Many political pundits believe the contest will result in a hung Parliament and some now say the general election is too close to call with Cameron perhaps still holding a slight lead over Brown. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5140 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8700 figure and was supported around the £0.8605 level.<br />
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CHF<br />
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The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0850 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0745 level. Swiss National Bank Chairman Hildebrand said he is “skeptical” of the International Monetary Fund’s G-20 bank tax proposal. Swiss National Bank and Swiss regulators announced new regulations this week that mandate UBS and Credit Suisse to hold larger amounts of reserves to defend against crisis scenarios. Data released in Switzerland today saw the March trade balance expand to CHF 2.01 billion from the prior reading of CHF 1.29 billion while the April ZEW expectations survey fell back to 53.4 from 53.8. Dealers continue to cite talk that Swiss National Bank may be intervening by bidding the euro/ franc cross higher. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0920 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.4355 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6490 level.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-29477447799855329832010-04-22T11:17:00.007+07:002010-04-25T06:34:32.545+07:00Let the Professional Web Designer do the Tough JobA successful internet marketer has to set everything up with a perfect appearance, content, and strategy. Sometimes, people want to be a perfectionist in managing everything in their projects of internet business by themselves. But this will actually not effective since people capacity and energy is limited. There are a lot of things to prepare to reach successful internet marketing while people’s concentration cannot solve too many problems. Their concentration will split resulting bad effects for every preparation they are making. Therefore, they should use a reliable service as their partners in making a wonderful preparation. The most profitable service to use is absolutely the web designer service. Website design is a major component in an internet marketing that will give the first impression of the products and services offered. Therefore, attractive appearance is the essential part of websites that will also influence the amount of visitors and returns. <br />
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<img alt="money" height="320" src="http://www.thefinancialblogger.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/money-management.jpg" width="320" /></div>
Money management is very important and used in Investment management and deals with the question of how much risk a decision maker should take in situations where uncertainty is present. More precisely what percentage or what part of the decision maker's wealth should be put into risk in order to maximize the decision maker's utility function.<br />
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Let's to learn money management for better earning<br />
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<b><a href="http://marketb.blogspot.com/">Money management</a> gives practical advice among others</b> for gambling and for stock trading as well.<br />
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<b>Money management can mean gaining greater control over outgoings and incomings</b>, both in personal and business perspective. Greater money management can be achieved by establishing budgets and analysing costs and income etc.<br />
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In stock and futures trading, money management plays an important role in every success of a trading system. This closely related with trading expectancy:<br />
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“Expectancy” which is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per dollar at risk. Mathematically:<br />
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Expectancy = (Trading system Winning probability * Average Win) – (Trading system losing probability * Average Loss)<br />
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So for example even if a trading system has 60% losing probability and only 40% winning of all trades, using money management a trader can set his average win substantially higher compared to his average loss in order to produce a profitable trading system. If he set his average win at around $400 per trade (this can done using proper exit strategy) and managing/limiting the losses to around $100 per trade; the expectancy is around:<br />
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Expectancy = (Trading system Winning probability * Average Win) – (Trading system losing probability * Average Loss) Expectancy = (0.4 x 400) - (0.6 x 100)=$160 - $60 = $100 net average profit per trade (of course commissions are not included in the computations).<br />
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Therefore the key to successful money management is maximizing every winning trades and minimizing losses (regardless whether you have winning or losing trading system, such as %Loss probability > %Win probability).<br />
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<b>Money management is the process of managing money</b>. It is including investment, budgeting, banking and taxes. it is also called investment management.<br />
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<b>Money management is a strategic technique</b> employed at making money yield the highest of interest-yielding value for any amount of it spent. Spending money to provide answers to all cravings (regardless of whether they are justifiable or not to be included in budget basket) is a natural human phenomenon. The idea of money management techniques is developed to plummet the amount individual, firm and institutions spends on items that add no significant value to its living standard, long-term portfolios and asset-basins. Warren Buffet, in one of his documentaries, admonished prospective investors to embrace his highly-esteemed "frugality" ideology. This is the basis of every sound money management formulas. The following are powerful techniques that can be employed in making every expense made to be worth it:<br />
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<i>1. cutting your budget on social needs</i><br />
<i>2. avoid any snob-appealing expense</i><br />
<i>3. always go for the most cost-effective alternative (establishing small quality-variance bench-mark, if any)</i><br />
<i>4. increase expenses more on interest bearing item than any other thing</i><br />
<i>5. establish the expected benefits of every desired expense using the canon of plus/minus/nil to standard of living value system.</i><br />
These techniques are investment-boosting and portfolio-multiplying.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-76253524197077624472008-08-20T07:01:00.001+07:002008-08-20T07:01:34.516+07:00Yen Advances as Credit Losses Damp Demand for Higher Yields<p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Yen Advances as Credit Losses Damp Demand for Higher Yields </span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The yen increased to a three-month high against the euro on speculation financial firms will report more losses, reducing demand for higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Japan</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s currency also advanced versus the dollar and the Australian dollar on concern <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LEH%3AUS">Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.</a>, the largest underwriter of mortgage bonds before the <span class="SpellE">subprime</span> market collapsed, may post $4 billion in credit <span class="SpellE">writedowns</span>. The dollar traded near a six-month high against the euro as U.S. wholesale prices increased in July twice the amount forecast. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The downbeat assessment from big names in the investment community is weighing on the market,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Vassili+Serebriakov&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Vassili</span> <span class="SpellE">Serebriakov</span></a>, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>. ``Risk aversion is coming back.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The yen climbed 0.3 percent to 161.28 per euro at 10:32 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>, from 161.82 yesterday, after touching 160.87, the strongest level since May 13. The yen advanced 0.3 percent to 109.78 per dollar, from 110.13. The dollar traded at $1.4692 per euro, compared with $1.4694, after reaching $1.4631, the strongest level since Feb. 20. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Japan</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s currency rose 0.5 percent to 95.16 per Australian dollar and advanced 0.5 percent to 204.45 versus the pound as concern that Lehman <span class="SpellE">writedowns</span> may deepen discouraged the carry trade, in which investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher. The Bank of Japan held its target lending rate at 0.5 percent today, the lowest among industrialized countries. That benchmark compares with 5 percent in the <st1:country-region st="on">U.K.</st1:country-region> and 7.25 percent in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Australia</st1:place></st1:country-region>. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Outlook for Lehman <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span class="SpellE"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">JPMorgan</span></span><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> Chase & Co. predicted Lehman may lose $3.30 a share in the third quarter, more than three times the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Financial institutions have posted more than $500 billion of losses and <span class="SpellE">writedowns</span> since the start of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND">Standard & Poor's 500 Index</a> dropped 0.9 percent, while <st1:place st="on">Europe</st1:place>'s Dow Jones <span class="SpellE">Stoxx</span> 600 slid 2.1 percent. The MSCI Asia- Pacific Index of regional shares lost 2.1 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Banks are being ``crushed by ballooning debts,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Tetsuhisa+Hayashi&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Tetsuhisa</span> Hayashi</a>, chief manager of foreign-exchange trading at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan's largest lender by market value. ``Risk aversion among investors will cause further yen buying,'' driving the Japanese currency to 100 per dollar by year-end, Hayashi said. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Producer Prices <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The dollar briefly strengthened versus the euro after the U.S. Labor Department reported that producer prices climbed 1.2 percent in July after increasing 1.8 percent the previous month. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an increase of 0.6 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The market is seizing on any data that suggest interest rates need to go higher,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Stephen+Malyon&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Stephen <span class="SpellE">Malyon</span></a>, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. ``Our view is that inflation won't be a major problem in the medium term. Once the market gets a chance to reflect on that, it should be less dollar-bullish.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 16 percent chance the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> central bank will raise the 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter- percentage point by its Dec. 16 meeting, down from 37 percent odds a week earlier. Policy makers next meet Sept. 16. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Dallas Fed President <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Richard+Fisher&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Richard Fisher</a> said in a speech in <st1:city st="on">Aspen</st1:city>, <st1:state st="on">Colorado</st1:state>, that the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> economy may face a persistent rise in inflation as higher food and energy prices prompt companies to pass on cost increases. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Fisher's Dissent <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Fisher's comments reflect his decision at the Aug. 5 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee to dissent for a fifth time this year, preferring an increase in the benchmark interest rate. Central bank policy makers signaled two weeks ago a pause in any change in borrowing costs, noting falling employment and persistent financial market turmoil. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Crude oil for September delivery fell 0.2 percent to $112.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The Bank of Japan cut its economic assessment for a second straight month, acknowledging that threats to growth outweigh decade-high inflation as its chief concern. The world's second- largest economy shrank last quarter, putting it on the brink of the first recession in six years. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The revised BOJ outlook ``will place even less pressure on the yen to appreciate in the middle to long term,'' wrote <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Masafumi+Yamamoto&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Masafumi</span> Yamamoto</a>, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo and a former BOJ currency trader, in a research note today. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">RBS pushed back its forecast for a BOJ rate increase to the fourth quarter of 2009 from the second quarter, Yamamoto said, confirming the contents of the report.</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-73024869815774126832008-08-15T07:04:00.000+07:002008-08-15T07:06:45.667+07:00news forex<div class="Section1"> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Euro Trades <span class="GramE">Near</span> 5 1/2-Month Low Versus Dollar as GDP Shrinks </span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded near a 5 1/2-month low against the dollar after a report showed <st1:place st="on">Europe</st1:place>'s economy contracted for the first time since the 15-nation currency was introduced almost a decade ago. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Europe</span></st1:place><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s currency has traded in a range of about $1.48 to $1.51 this week after dropping 3.6 percent last week, the biggest weekly decline since January 2007. The 14-day relative strength of the euro versus the dollar indicated the greenback's gains may have been too fast to be sustained. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The bulk of the swift downward move in the euro-dollar is behind us,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Todd+Elmer&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Todd Elmer</a>, currency strategist at Citigroup Global Markets in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.4885 at 10:17 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>, from $1.4919 yesterday. It depreciated to $1.4816 two days ago, the weakest level since Feb. 26. The euro was at 163 yen, compared with 163.43 yesterday, when it reached a three-month low of 161.40. The dollar traded at 109.52 yen, compared with 109.53. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The <span class="SpellE">euro's</span> 14-day relative strength index against the dollar was at 20.8 today. A reading below 30 typically signals a change in price direction is imminent. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The pound was little changed at $1.8717 after touching $1.8619, the lowest level in 22 months against the dollar. The Bank of England cut its economic-growth forecast yesterday, signaling it may reduce interest rates. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Pound <span class="GramE">Versus</span> Yen <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Sterling may extend its decline to 192.48 yen after the currency dropped below so-called support of 211.25 yen, said New York-based Citigroup analyst <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Tom+Fitzpatrick&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Tom Fitzpatrick</a> and London colleague <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Shyam+Devani&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Shyam</span> <span class="SpellE">Devani</span></a>, who use charts to predict currency movements, in a research note yesterday. The pound was little changed at 204.91 yen today. A support level is where buy orders are concentrated. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Traders have reduced bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates a second time this year. The implied yield on the December <span class="SpellE">Euribor</span> futures contract was at 4.95 percent today, compared with 5.04 percent at the end of July. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Europe's gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent in the second quarter, after growing 0.7 percent in the first three months of the year, the European Union's statistics office said today in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Luxembourg</st1:place></st1:country-region>. The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted for the first time in almost four years, the Federal Statistics Office said in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Wiesbaden</st1:place></st1:city>. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``We expect the euro zone to move into an outright recession,'' said<a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=+Ian+Stannard&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"> Ian <span class="SpellE">Stannard</span></a>, a London-based currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA. ``We see a multi-year euro downtrend now developing. And data we are getting is consistent with that view.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">U.S.</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> Jobless Claims <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">More Americans than forecast filed initial claims for jobless benefits last week, signaling further weakness in the labor market. The number of first-time applications decreased to 450,000 in the week ended Aug. 9, from a revised 460,000 the prior week that was higher than previously estimated. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a drop to 435,000 from a previously reported 455,000. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Bank repossessions in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> almost tripled in July, and foreclosure filings increased 55 percent from a year earlier as falling prices cut homeowner equity, said <span class="SpellE">RealtyTrac</span> Inc., a seller of foreclosure data. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The yen may rise against the dollar on speculation Japanese investors will repatriate some of their earnings on investments in U.S. Treasuries, traders said. The <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> will pay $38.8 billion in principal and coupons on government debt tomorrow. <st1:country-region st="on">Japan</st1:country-region> is the largest foreign owner of Treasuries, according to <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> government data. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Japanese Bondholders <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Japanese <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JSIHBOND%3AIND">investors</a> sold 461.3 billion yen ($4.2 billion) more overseas bonds and notes than they bought last week, the second week of sales and the most since the period ended April 18, the Finance Ministry said today in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Tokyo</st1:place></st1:city>. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``There's a great chance that the yen will appreciate,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Akira+Takei&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Akira Takei</a>, general manager in Tokyo for international bonds at Mizuho Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $37.3 billion. ``People want to avoid risks. Repatriation will play some part in yen strength as there is some comfort in holding funds in your own currency.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana; color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p> </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-86304819227610402932008-08-13T07:05:00.000+07:002008-08-13T07:08:32.414+07:00forex news<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Dollar Snaps Five-Day Rally <span class="GramE">Versus</span> Euro on Bets Gains Excessive </span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar snapped a five-day winning streak against the euro on speculation the currency's recent gains are too fast to be sustained. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The greenback has rallied 4.3 percent versus the euro this month on speculation the <st1:country-region st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> economic slowdown is spreading to <st1:place st="on">Europe</st1:place> and as commodity prices have tumbled. The ruble rose the most in seven years against the dollar as <st1:country-region st="on">Russia</st1:country-region> called off military operations in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Georgia</st1:place></st1:country-region>. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The dollar's rally was overextended,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Steve+Butler&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Steve Butler</a>, director of foreign-exchange trading at Scotia Capital Inc. in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Toronto</st1:place></st1:city>. ``It has been such a one-way street.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Against the euro, the dollar traded at $1.4910 at 11 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>, compared with $1.4909 yesterday. It touched $1.4816, the strongest since Feb. 26. The dollar decreased 0.3 percent to 109.75 yen, from 110.06 yesterday, when it touched the seven-month high of 110.40. The euro fell 0.2 percent to 163.77 yen after touching 163.26, the lowest since June 5. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro has dropped 7 percent against the dollar since reaching the all-time high of $1.6038 on July 15. The 14-day relative strength index of the euro against the dollar was 22.40 today. A reading below 30 suggests a change in price direction is imminent. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The ruble was one of the biggest gainers versus the dollar after President <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dmitry+Medvedev&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Dmitry</span> <span class="SpellE">Medvedev</span></a> ordered a halt to its offensive in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Georgia</st1:place></st1:country-region>, saying the military had achieved its goal. <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Russia</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s currency rose as much as 1.2 percent to 24.1447 per dollar, its biggest jump since Jan. 4, 2001. Against the euro, the ruble rose as much 1.4 percent, the steepest gain since 2005. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The currency dropped 2.3 percent against the dollar on Aug. 8 after Russian Prime Minister <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Vladimir+Putin&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Vladimir <span class="SpellE">Putin</span></a> said war with <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Georgia</st1:place></st1:country-region> had started. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Dollar Index <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AIND">Dollar Index</a>, which gauges the greenback against the currencies of six major <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> trading partners, was little changed at 76.135. It touched 76.616, the highest level since Feb. 12. The index rose 1.7 percent on Aug. 8, the biggest jump in six years. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``It's just time for a bit of correction,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Matthew&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Matthew</span></a><span class="SpellE"><a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kassel&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Kassel</a></span></span></p> <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">, director of proprietary trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``The dollar's rally is exhausted.'' <o:p></o:p></span> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kassel&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">The dollar surged 2.1 percent against the euro on Aug. 8, the biggest one-day gain since January 2001. <o:p></o:p></span></a></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kassel&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">The yield on three-month <span class="SpellE">Euribor</span> contract for June decreased 0.05 percentage point to 4.48 percent today, indicating investors bet the European Central Bank may lower its main refinancing rate from a seven-year high of 4.25 percent by the second quarter of 2009. <o:p></o:p></span></a></span></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kassel&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">Germany</span><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">'s Economy <o:p></o:p></span></a></span></st1:place></st1:country-region></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kassel&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">Germany</span><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">'s economy, the largest in the 15-nation region that uses the euro, probably contracted in the second quarter for the first time in almost four years, according to the median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government is due to report the data on Aug. 14. <o:p></o:p></span></a></span></st1:place></st1:country-region></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kassel&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">In <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Japan</st1:place></st1:country-region>, a report tomorrow may show <span style=""><u><span style="color: blue;">gross domestic product</span></u></span> shrank at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the three months ended June 30, following 4 percent growth in the previous quarter, according to a separate Bloomberg News survey. <o:p></o:p></span></a></span></p> <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JGDPAGDP%3AIND"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">``The market has become less bearish about the U.S. and, comparatively speaking, much more bearish about what's going on in the rest of the world,'' said <span style=""><u><span style="color: blue;">Mike Moran</span></u></span>, a senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, in an interview on Bloomberg Television.</span></a></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-2805783762752796932008-08-12T06:47:00.000+07:002008-08-12T06:58:54.672+07:00forex news<p><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Euro Little Changed as ECB Official Cites Risk of Inflation</span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The euro was little changed against the dollar after a European Central Bank policy maker said the bank remains focused on inflation and traders judged last week's 3.6 percent drop to be excessive. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">ECB council member <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Klaus+Liebscher&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Klaus <span class="SpellE">Liebscher</span></a> said policy makers remain focused on the ``worrying'' level of inflation, Market News reported today, citing an interview. The <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=RUBLE%3AIND">Russian ruble</a> declined to the lowest level against the dollar since February as armed clashes between <st1:country-region st="on">Russia</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region st="on">Georgia</st1:country-region> in <st1:place st="on">South <span class="SpellE">Ossetia</span></st1:place> and Abkhazia deterred investors from holding the currency. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``Inflation remains a threat, and the ECB will keep reminding the market of that,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Adam+Cole&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Adam Cole</a>, the head of global currency strategy in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">London</st1:place></st1:city> at RBC Capital Markets. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro traded at $1.4990 at 10:19 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>, compared with $1.5005 on Aug. 8. It touched $1.4907, the lowest level since Feb. 26. The 15-nation euro dropped 0.3 percent to 164.87 yen, from 165.38 at the end of last week. It reached 163.65 yen, the weakest level since June 5. The dollar declined 0.2 percent to 109.98 yen, from 110.18. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The 14-day relative strength index of the euro versus the dollar fell to 21.82, the lowest since the European currency's 1999 debut. A relative strength index level below 30 suggests a currency's decline is extreme and a reversal may be imminent. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Russia</span></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s ruble fell as much as 1.6 percent to 24.618 per dollar, the weakest since Feb. 20, after <st1:country-region st="on">Russia</st1:country-region> stepped up its bombing of <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Georgia</st1:place></st1:country-region>, rejecting a proposed cease-fire agreed upon by Georgian President <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Mikheil+Saakashvili&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Mikheil</span> <span class="SpellE">Saakashvili</span></a>. Against the euro, it declined 0.5 percent to 36.537. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Swiss Franc <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The Swiss franc rose against most of the major currencies as concern the conflict will escalate prompted investors to seek a haven. The franc rose 0.3 percent to 1.6192 against the euro and advanced 0.3 percent to 1.0794 versus the dollar. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class="SpellE"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Liebscher</span></span><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> said the ECB was right to raise interest rates in July and price risks haven't waned in recent weeks and months, although the decline in oil prices is a ``relief'' and ``welcome,'' Market News reported. The extent of the weakening in economic data ``is only a limited surprise,'' he was quoted as saying. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``There is of course no bias for the future, and there is no pre-commitment, but what really has to be done in the future depends on the data available,'' said <span class="SpellE">Liebscher</span>, according to Market News. ``For us it's not either-or, growth or price stability. It is price stability. We have to do at a given moment of time what is necessary.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">ECB Rate Outlook <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Traders raised bets that the ECB will lift rates this year after leaving the main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent last week. The implied yield on December interest-rate futures, an indicator of interest rate expectations, increased 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, from Aug. 8, to 4.95 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The European single currency sank the most in almost eight years against the dollar on Aug. 8 as traders pared bets the ECB will raise interest rates as the economy slows. The weekly decline was the most since January 2005. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">A government report showed French industrial production dropped 0.4 percent in June, the National Statistics Office in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Paris</st1:place></st1:city>. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had predicted an increase of 0.6 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Moody's Investors Service said defaults on loans included in European commercial mortgage-backed securities rose 80 percent in the second quarter, sparking concern the financial turmoil in the region is deepening. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">`Weaker Growth' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``We clearly have weaker growth outside the <st1:country-region st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region>,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Benedikt+Germanier&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Benedikt</span> <span class="SpellE">Germanier</span></a>, a currency strategist at UBS AG in <st1:place st="on"><st1:city st="on">Stamford</st1:city>, <st1:state st="on">Connecticut</st1:state></st1:place>, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``With the rest of the world's growth momentum declining, clearly that's enough for the dollar to <span class="SpellE">sustainably</span> gain ground in relative terms.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Negative economic news in the <st1:country-region st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> may not be over, according to <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Sophia+Drossos&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Sophia <span class="SpellE">Drossos</span></a>, a strategist in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state> at Morgan Stanley. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``I would not chase the dollar's strength versus the euro as the pair has moved beyond interest-rate support,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Drossos&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Drossos</span></a>. ``The dollar is not out of the woods. It will take the market a while to come around to our point of view.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Sales at <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> retailers fell 0.1 percent in July after rising 0.1 percent in the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=RSTAMOM%3AIND">survey</a>. The Commerce Department will release the data on Aug. 13. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">China</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s <span class="SpellE">yuan</span> weakened as much as 0.1 percent to 6.8663 per dollar, a six-week low. The <span class="SpellE">yuan's</span> 18 percent appreciation against the dollar over the past three years is grinding to a halt as government officials said supporting growth is as important as fighting inflation. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The People's Bank of China has kept the <span class="SpellE">yuan</span> little changed since June, after gains of 4.1 percent in the first quarter and 2.3 percent in the second. That raised speculation that currency policy will be adjusted to bolster exports as the trade surplus shrinks. Legg Mason Inc.'s Western Asset Management Co. is trimming bets on the <span class="SpellE">yuan</span> after it rose in July by the smallest amount in a year.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-19657026127356444352008-08-09T06:46:00.001+07:002008-08-09T06:46:50.051+07:00Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate<p class="MsoNormal"><st1:place st="on"><st1:placename st="on"><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Euro</span></b></span></st1:placename><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> <st1:placetype st="on">Falls</st1:placetype></span></b></span></st1:place><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate </span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell the most in almost eight years against the dollar as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro is poised for its biggest weekly loss since January 2005 after ECB President <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jean-Claude+Trichet&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Jean-Claude <span class="SpellE">Trichet</span></a> yesterday said economic growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter. An index that tracks the dollar against the currencies of six <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AIND">trading</a> partners touched the highest since February. Crude oil fell to a three-month low. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``This is the beginning of a new chapter for the dollar as <span class="SpellE">Trichet</span> and other central banks are paying more attention to the downside risk to growth,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dustin+Reid&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Dustin Reid</a>, a senior currency strategist at ABN <span class="SpellE">Amro</span> Bank NV in Chicago. ``The decline of oil prices is a significant driver behind this dollar rally because it enables other central banks to turn their eyes away from inflation and focus on growth.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro declined 1.95 percent to $1.5032 at 10:23 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state> and reached $1.5005, the lowest level since Feb. 27, from $1.5325 yesterday. It dropped as much as 2.08 percent, the biggest one-day drop since Sept. 6, 2000. Against the yen, the European currency traded at 165.84, from 167.70. The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 109.97 yen after touching 110.08, the strongest since Jan. 10. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Moving Average <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The <span class="SpellE">euro's</span> decline below $1.53 and the break of the 200-day moving average at $1.5226 ``marks a significant change in sentiment for the dollar,'' pointing to a further decline to $1.46, <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kevin+Edgeley&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Kevin <span class="SpellE">Edgeley</span></a>, a London-based technical analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a report today. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro has declined 3.1 percent against the dollar in its fourth weekly decline, the worst losing streak since May 2007. Against the yen, the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> currency has advanced 2.1 percent, heading for its biggest weekly gain in almost two months. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The most important aspect of the dramatic collapse in the euro dollar is the absence of confirmation from other markets,'' said David Woo, global head of currency strategy at Barclays Capital Inc. in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">London</st1:place></st1:city>. ``None of the typical drivers of the euro-dollar in the past couple of years could have accounted for the magnitude of this move, which leads one to conclude that this is a technical driven move.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The South African rand led losses among the most-traded currencies as the prices of gold and platinum dropped, reducing prospects for export earnings from the country's biggest exports. The greenback rose to a six-month high against the Australian dollar, and advanced to the highest since September against the New Zealand dollar on speculation the central banks will cut borrowing costs. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Russia</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s Ruble <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The Russian ruble fell by the most in 2 1/2 years against a dollar-euro basket used by the government after <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Georgia</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s Interior Ministry said four Russian fighter-jets entered Georgian airspace and bombed the towns of <span class="SpellE">Gori</span> and <span class="SpellE">Kareli</span>, boosting the risk of war. The ruble dropped as much as 0.8 percent against the basket. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The pound fell below $1.93 for the first time since March 2007 as the Bank of England kept its main interest rate steady at 5 percent yesterday after inflation accelerated and the economy teetered on the brink of a recession. It has dropped 2.7 percent this week to $1.9210, its biggest weekly drop in three years. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AIND">The Dollar Index</a> on the ICE futures exchange reached 75.713 today, the highest since Feb. 21. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">`No Bias' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class="SpellE"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Trichet</span></span><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> said yesterday he has ``no bias'' or ``pre- commitment'' toward future rate movements after the central bank left the main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent. He told reporters in <st1:place st="on">Frankfurt</st1:place> that while inflation remains a threat, risks to economic growth are ``materializing.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">European <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=RSWAEMUY%3AIND">retail sales</a> dropped by the most in at least 13 years in June, the European Union said on Aug. 5. Consumer confidence slid in July by the most since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the European Commission said July 30. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Traders pared bets the ECB will lift rates a second time this year after increasing its main rate by a quarter-point last month. The implied yield on the December interest rate futures, an indication of expectations, retreated 2 basis <span class="SpellE">pointsto</span> 4.94 percent today. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">New Zealand</st1:place></st1:country-region> dollar slumped as much as 2.2 percent to 69.84 U.S. cents, the biggest loss in two months. <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Australia</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s dollar dropped 1.7 percent, falling for a fourth day, to 89.10 U.S. cents, from 90.66 cents yesterday. The <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=RBACTR%3AIND">Reserve Bank of Australia</a> said it may lower borrowing costs, after keeping its benchmark interest rate at a 12-year high of 7.25 percent this week. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Oil, Metals, Crops <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Crude oil, metal and crop prices fell as the dollar climbed, reducing the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge. Oil has declined to $118.15 a barrel since touching the record of 147.27 on July 11. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``Oil prices have turned out to be much more supportive of the dollar than I expected,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Masanobu+Ishikawa&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Masanobu Ishikawa</a>, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo <span class="SpellE">Forex</span> & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan's largest currency broker. ``It does temporarily relieve some concern that the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> economy will weaken further. This is a plus for sentiment.''</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-55072235245248723572008-08-01T07:10:00.000+07:002008-08-01T07:16:53.311+07:00Dollar Falls as GDP Trails Forecast, Jobless Claims Increase<p class="MsoNormal"><st1:place st="on"><st1:placename st="on"><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Dollar</span></b></span></st1:placename><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> <st1:placetype st="on">Falls</st1:placetype></span></b></span></st1:place><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> as GDP Trails Forecast, Jobless Claims Increase </span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for the first time in three days against the euro as reports showed the U.S. economy grew less than forecast in the second quarter and initial jobless claims rose last week to a five-year high. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro advanced earlier against the dollar as European inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 16 years. The pound dropped against the euro after reports showed British consumer confidence declined this month to a record low and house prices fell the most in almost two decades. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The economic backdrop is far less robust than people thought,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Tom+Fitzpatrick&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Tom Fitzpatrick</a>, global head of currency strategy at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>. ``Today's numbers provide a platform to send the euro-dollar to new highs.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The dollar dropped 0.4 percent to $1.5641 per euro at 10:33 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>, from $1.5576 yesterday. The <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> currency declined to the record low of $1.6038 on July 15. The euro increased 0.2 percent to 168.71 yen, from 168.41. The <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> currency dropped 0.3 percent to 107.85 yen, from 108.13. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Today's decline pared the greenback's <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=EURUSD%3AIND">gain</a> versus the euro this month to 0.8 percent. The dollar has advanced 1.6 percent against the yen, while the euro has gained 0.9 percent versus <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Japan</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s currency. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Sterling</span></st1:place></st1:city><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> declined 0.2 pence to 78.73 pence per euro today after the London-based market-research firm <span class="SpellE">GfK</span> NOP said its index of <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=UKCCI%3AIND">consumer confidence</a> fell to the lowest since the data began in 1974. The average value of a home dropped 8.1 percent from a year earlier, the biggest decline since at least 1991, said Nationwide Building Society, <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Britain</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s fourth-biggest mortgage lender. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Fed Rate Outlook <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 32 percent chance of the Fed raising its 2 percent target rate for overnight loans between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by Sept. 16, down from 38 percent odds yesterday. Most traders expect policy makers to keep borrowing costs unchanged when they next meet Aug. 5. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">U.S.</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the second quarter after revised 0.9 percent growth in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department reported today. The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an advance of 2.3 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Initial <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=INJCJC%3AIND">jobless claims</a> rose to 448,000 in the week ended July 26, from a revised 404,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had forecast a drop in claims. The total number of initial filings last week was the highest since April 2003. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Company Hiring <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> currency touched a one-month high against the euro yesterday after a private report showed companies unexpectedly added jobs this month. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The dollar's rally was built on a shaky foundation,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Stephen+Malyon&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Stephen <span class="SpellE">Malyon</span></a>, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital Inc. in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Toronto</st1:place></st1:city>. ``Today's numbers just highlighted there's more downside risk to growth. The jump in jobless claims puts a brake on the dollar's rally.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Non-farm payrolls dropped by 75,000 this month following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to the median forecast 0f 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department's report, which includes government hiring, is due tomorrow. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro strengthened versus the dollar as the European Union statistics office reported that the euro zone's inflation <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=ECCPEST%3AIND">rate</a> rose to 4.1 percent this month, the biggest increase since April 1992. The European Central Bank raised its main refinancing rate to 4.25 percent on July 3, the highest level since 2001. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">European Inflation <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``We're going to see inflation moving further to the upside,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jeremy+Stretch&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Jeremy Stretch</a>, a senior strategist in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">London</st1:place></st1:city> at <span class="SpellE">Rabobank</span> International, the third-largest Dutch bank. ``That might just lead the market to think that even with the downturn in economic <span class="GramE">data,</span> the ECB might turn toward tighter monetary policy. That's providing a little support for the euro.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">South Africa</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s rand rose as much as 0.9 percent to 7.3291 versus the dollar, the strongest since Feb. 4, after a report showed the country's trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in June. The rand has increased 6.2 percent this month for the best performance among the world's major currencies. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Turkey's lira advanced to a six-month high after the Constitutional Court rejected yesterday a call by prosecutors to ban the party of Prime Minister <span class="SpellE">Recep</span> <span class="SpellE">Tayyip</span> <span class="SpellE">Erdogan</span>, which is seeking to introduce Islamic law in secular Turkey. The lira climbed as much as 2.4 percent to 1.1555 per dollar, its strongest since Jan. 15. It has gained 5.4 percent versus the dollar this month.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-8601991618676176572008-07-31T06:26:00.000+07:002008-07-31T06:27:30.577+07:00Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)<span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: navy; font-family: Arial;"><span><span style="color:#000000;"><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="color: navy; font-family: Arial;">Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)</span></u></b></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: navy; font-family: Arial;"> </span></b></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: navy; font-family: Arial;"> </span></b></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: navy; font-family: Arial;">€</span></b></p> <p style="margin: 0.1in 0in; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial;">The euro extended yesterday’s losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5520 level and was capped around the $1.5615 level.<span> </span>The common currency reached its lowest level since 24 June as traders continued to price in the likelihood of a further slowdown in the eurozone economy. Traders also increased their exposure to the U.S. dollar after ADP private sector jobs unexpectedly increased 9,000 in July, defying expectations of a sizable decline.<span> </span>Some economists are upwardly revising their forecasts for the July non-farm payrolls report that will be released on Friday. In other U.S. news, the Federal Reserve announced actions to enhance its existing liquidity facilities including an extension of the Fed’s Primary Dealer Credit Facility and Term Securities Lending Facility through 30 January 2009. The Fed noted there remains “continued fragile circumstances in financial markets” and the Fed will also launch an 84-day Term Auction Facility from 11 August, complementing the 28-day facility it already offers.<span> </span>The European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank reported they are planning to extend the maturity of their liquidity operations, essentially availing U.S. dollars to European banks over a longer period of time.<span> </span><b>In eurozone news</b>, EMU-15 July economic sentiment fell to 89.5, its worst level in more than five years.<span> </span>Some traders believe the ECB will reduce its assessment on economic growth at next week’s Governing Council meeting.<span> </span>Banco de Espana reported the eurozone faces higher upside inflation risks.<span> </span>Other data saw German June new machinery, plant orders off 5.0% y/y while EMU-15 retail PMI improved to 46.<span> </span>Euro bids are cited around the $1.5585/ 1.5230 level.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: navy; font-family: Arial;">¥/ CNY</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;"></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;"> as the greenback tested offers around the ¥108.35 level and was supported around the ¥107.70 level.<span> </span>The pair reached its highest level since 25 June as traders continued to speculate the Japanese economy will weaken further. Most traders believe Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50% for the foreseeable future.<span> </span>Data released in Japan overnight saw June industrial output fall 2.0% m/m, worse-than-expected, and was up 0.2% y/y.<span> </span>Traders are waiting for this week’s likely cabinet shuffle by Prime Minister Fukuda to see if decision-makers at the finance and economy ministries are replaced.<span> </span>The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.58% to close at ¥13,367.79.<span> </span>Dollar bids are cited around the ¥106.40 level. <span> </span><b>The euro came off</b> vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥167.95 level and was capped around the ¥168.60 level.<span> </span><b>The British pound moved higher</b> vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥214.35 level while <b>the Swiss franc came off</b> vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥102.85 level.<span> </span><b>The Chinese yuan depreciated</b> vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8272 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8264.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: navy; font-family: Arial;">₤</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: navy; font-family: Arial;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><b><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;"> as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9845 level and was supported around the $1.9745 level.<span> </span>Technically, today’s intraday low was just below the 23.6% retracement of the move from $2.1160 to $1.9335. Traders are awaiting details of a possible government-sponsored program to swap mortgage assets for gilts.<span> </span>Cable bids are cited around the $1.9360 level. <span> </span><b>The euro moved lower</b> vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7850 level and was capped around the ₤0.7875 level.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: navy; font-family: Arial;">CHF<br /><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;"> as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0520 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0440 level.<span> </span>The pair traded at its highest level since 13 June.<span> </span>Data released in Switzerland today saw the KOF leading economic barometer fall to 0.9 in July from a revised 0.99 in June, its lowest level in give years.<span> </span>U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0515/ 1.0625 levels.<span> </span><b>The euro and British pound gained ground</b> vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6335 and CHF 2.0785 levels, respectively. </span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: navy; font-family: Arial;"> </span></b></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: navy; font-family: Arial;">Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;"></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><b><u><span style="color: navy; font-family: Arial;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></span></u></b></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in;"><b><span style="color: purple; font-family: Arial;"><span> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: navy; font-family: Arial;">(Bid Price)</span></b><span style="color: navy; font-family: Arial;"><span> </span><b>(Today’s Intraday Range)<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></b></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"><span> </span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">EUR/ USD<span> </span>1.5541<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>1.5615, 1.5521<br />USD/ JPY<span> </span>108.25<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>108.33, 107.68<br />GBP/ USD<span> </span>1.9770<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>1.9843, 1.9745<br />USD/ CHF<span> </span>1.0505<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>1.0520, 1.0439<br />AUD/ USD<span> </span>0.9423<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>0.9527, 0.9410<br />USD/CAD<span> </span>1.0258 <span></span><span> </span>1.0268,</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> <span lang="FR">1.0218<br />NZD/USD<span> </span>0.7325<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>0.7400, 0.7314<br />EUR/ JPY<span> </span>168.25 <span></span><span> </span>168.61, 167.94<br />EUR/ GBP<span> </span>0.7861<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>0.7878, 0.7857<br />EUR/ CHF<span> </span>1.6328<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>1.6333, 1.6285<br />GBP/ JPY<span> </span>214.00<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>214.18, 213.24<br />CHF/ JPY<span> </span>103.00 <span></span><span> </span><span> </span>103.40, 102.87</span></span></p></span></span></span></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-56278779792548876262008-07-31T06:18:00.000+07:002008-07-31T06:24:35.858+07:00Dollar Advances to One-Month High as U.S. Companies Add Jobs<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Dollar Advances to One-Month High as U.S. Companies Add Jobs </span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">July 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to a one-month high versus the euro and the yen after a private report showed <st1:place st="on"><st1:country-region st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> companies unexpectedly added jobs this month. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The greenback also gained as a decline in crude oil eased concern elevated fuel costs will erode consumer spending. <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">New Zealand</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s dollar dropped against all of the other major currencies except the Australian dollar after Reserve Bank Governor <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Alan+Bollard&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Alan Bollard</a> said slowing economic growth will curb inflation in the next two years. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``It's premature to say employment destruction has hit bottom, but today is a good sign,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Mike+Moran&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Mike Moran</a>, a senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>. ``In conjunction with a pullback in oil prices recently, it certainly contributed to the dollar's recovery.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The dollar increased 0.4 percent to $1.5524 per euro at 9:49 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>, from $1.5588 yesterday. It touched $1.5522, the strongest level since June 24. It may advance to $1.5460, Moran said. The <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> currency rose 0.2 percent to 108.30 yen, from 108.11. It touched 108.33, the highest since June 25. The euro fell 0.2 percent to 168.14 yen, from 168.53. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The Australian dollar declined 1 percent to 94.32 U.S. cents after a government report showed home-building approvals unexpectedly dropped in June for a second month. The Aussie decreased 0.9 percent to 102.08 yen. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Weaker Kiwi <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">New Zealand</span></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s dollar fell to a 10-month low against its <st1:country-region st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> counterpart after Bollard said in a speech in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Auckland</st1:place></st1:city> that ``weakness in the economy will be sufficient to bring inflation and inflation expectations down over the medium term.'' The kiwi dropped 1.1 percent to 73.23 U.S. cents after touching 73.16, the lowest level since Sept. 25. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The U.S. dollar strengthened versus the euro as ADP Employer Services reported that companies added 9,000 jobs in July after cutting a revised 77,000 positions in the previous month. The median forecast of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reduction of 60,000 jobs. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Non-farm payrolls dropped by 75,000 this month following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to the median forecast in a separate Bloomberg survey. The Labor Department is scheduled to release its report Aug. 1. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Crude oil fell for a second day, declining as much as 0.8 percent to $121.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It has dropped 17 percent from the record of $147.27 set on July 11. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the correlation of their value changes. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">`Starts to Align' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``Everything starts to align for the dollar,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Brian%0ADolan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Brian Dolan</a>, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. ``There's optimism that we're starting to see some stabilization in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> economy. A slowing global economy will likely reduce global demand for commodities. It's another positive for the dollar.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AIND">Dollar Index</a>, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> trading partners, reached 73.493, the highest level since June 24. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The U.S. currency may rise further versus the yen as Japanese investors invest their summer bonuses in overseas assets offering higher yields, according to <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Daisaku+Ueno&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Daisaku</span> Ueno</a>, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Nomura Securities Co., Japan's largest brokerage. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">`Individual Money' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``Emerging markets are constantly attracting Japanese individual money,'' said Ueno. <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Japan</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s currency may weaken to 110 per dollar by year-end, he said. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Employees at private companies were paid summer bonuses in June and July totaling 14.8 trillion yen, according to <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kazuyoshi%0ANakata&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Kazuyoshi Nakata</a>, an economist in <st1:city st="on">Tokyo</st1:city> at Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting Co., a unit of <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Japan</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s largest publicly traded lender. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">HSBC Investments will seek to raise 50 billion yen for a fund focused on <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s stocks tomorrow, while Nomura Asset Management will seek 60 billion yen for global stocks Aug. 1. <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s <span class="SpellE">Bovespa</span> Index, measured in yen, <span class="GramE">advanced</span> 16 percent over the past 12 months, according to Bloomberg calculations. <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Japan</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 23 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The Bank of Japan's target lending rate of 0.5 percent is the lowest among industrialized economies, making overseas assets more attractive to domestic investors. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Implied volatility on one-month dollar-yen options fell to 10.06 percent, from 10.73 percent a week earlier. Lower volatility may encourage carry trades, in which investors borrow in countries with low interest rates and buy assets where returns are higher.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-79652343985174866892008-07-30T06:15:00.001+07:002008-07-30T06:15:35.000+07:00Dollar Rises to One-Month High as Confidence Rises, Oil Falls<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Dollar Rises to One-Month High as Confidence <span class="GramE">Rises</span>, <st1:place st="on"><st1:placename st="on">Oil</st1:placename> <st1:placetype st="on">Falls</st1:placetype></st1:place> </span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">July 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar advanced to a one-month high versus the euro and the yen as U.S. consumer confidence increased and crude oil prices dropped, reducing concern the economy may fall into a recession. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The currency rose against the yen and <st1:country-region st="on">New Zealand</st1:country-region>'s dollar as unemployment climbed in <st1:country-region st="on">Japan</st1:country-region> last month and home building permits fell to the lowest in almost 22 years in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">New Zealand</st1:place></st1:country-region>. The pound fell versus the dollar after an index of <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.K.</st1:place></st1:country-region> retail sales dropped in July to a 25-year low. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``A lot of bad news has been priced in,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Alan+Ruskin&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Alan Ruskin</a>, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The dollar increased 0.8 percent to $1.5616 per euro at 10:28 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>, from $1.5741 yesterday. It touched $1.5596, the strongest level since June 25. The <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> currency appreciated 0.7 percent to 108.18 yen, from 107.46, and reached 108.29, the highest since June 25. The euro traded at 169.13 yen, compared with 169.17. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Sterling</span></st1:place></st1:city><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> weakened 0.6 percent to $1.9813 after the Confederation of British Industry said its survey of 82 retailers showed 25 percent sold more goods than a year earlier and 61 percent sold fewer. The net rounded balance of minus 36 percentage points was the lowest since the survey began in 1983. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Weaker Yen <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The yen declined earlier against the dollar after government reports showed Japan's unemployment rate rose in June to 4.1 percent, the highest level in almost two years, and household spending fell, adding to signs the economy's longest postwar expansion may be ending. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">New Zealand</st1:place></st1:country-region> dollar fell against all of the other major currencies after a report showed home building approvals decreased 20 percent in June to 1,337, the lowest since October 1986. The kiwi declined 1.2 percent to 73.66 U.S. cents. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``At this stage, bad news in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> will be translated to bad news elsewhere,'' Ruskin said. ``It provides some cushion to the dollar.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">In <st1:country-region st="on">France</st1:country-region>, a gauge of consumer sentiment dropped in July to minus 48, the lowest level since the index was introduced in 1987, from minus 46 in June, according to <span class="SpellE">Insee</span>, the national statistics office in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Paris</st1:place></st1:city>. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The euro-zone economy's outlook has really become more bleak,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jan+Lambregts&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Jan <span class="SpellE">Lambregts</span></a>, head of Asia research at <span class="SpellE">Rabobank</span> International in <st1:place st="on">Hong Kong</st1:place>. ``Ultimately, that means the upside for the euro-dollar is becoming more capped.'' The euro will decline to $1.55 by year-end, <span class="SpellE">Rabobank</span> forecasts. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">European Outlook <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Traders reduced bets the ECB will raise its 4.25 percent main refinancing rate this year. The implied yield on the December <span class="SpellE">Euribor</span> futures contract dropped to 5.09 percent, from 5.12 percent yesterday. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The Conference Board's confidence index rose this month to 51.9, higher than forecast, from a revised 51 in June. The <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND">Standard & Poor's 500 Index</a> increased 1.2 percent, after falling 1.9 percent yesterday. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Crude oil for September delivery dropped as much as 1.5 percent to $122.92 a barrel. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have moved in the same direction 90 percent of the time during the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the correlation of their value changes. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <st1:country-region st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">China</span></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s <span class="SpellE">yuan</span> advanced after central bank Governor <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Zhou%0AXiaochuan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Zhou <span class="SpellE">Xiaochuan</span></a> underscored policy ``continuity,'' spurring speculation <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region> will let the currency rise further to stem inflation. The <span class="SpellE">yuan</span> climbed 0.1 percent to 6.8256 per dollar.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-22323985612921004612008-07-29T09:07:00.000+07:002008-07-29T09:09:04.137+07:00Dollar Falls Against Euro, Yen on Credit Losses, Oil Increase<p class="MsoNormal"><st1:place st="on"><st1:placename st="on"><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Dollar</span></b></span></st1:placename><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> <st1:placetype st="on">Falls</st1:placetype></span></b></span></st1:place><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> <span class="GramE">Against</span> Euro, Yen on Credit Losses, Oil Increase </span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">July 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar declined from near a three-week high against the euro and the strongest in a month versus the yen on concern U.S. financial losses will widen and as crude-oil prices increased. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The currency dropped for a second day against the euro after Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Gary+Stern&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Gary Stern</a> told the Financial Times the U.S. credit crunch will get worse. The pound fell against all of the other major currencies as <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.K.</st1:place></st1:country-region> house values dropped in July the most in at least seven years. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The financial sector is far from being healthy,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Vassili+Serebriakov&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Vassili</span> <span class="SpellE">Serebriakov</span></a>, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>. ``The Fed won't be able to raise rates any time soon given what's happening in the credit market. It's very difficult for the dollar to have a sustained rally.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.5758 per euro at 8:41 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>, from $1.5709 on July 25. It touched $1.5629 on July 24, the strongest since July 7. The dollar will trade in a range of $1.5650 to $1.5950 in the next few weeks, <span class="SpellE">Serebriakov</span> said. The <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> currency dropped 0.2 percent to 107.61 yen, from 107.84, after earlier reaching 108.07, the highest since June 26. The euro traded at 169.55 yen, compared with 169.40. It touched the all-time high of 169.96 on July 23. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The pound decreased 0.2 percent to $1.9868 after <span class="SpellE">Hometrack</span> Ltd., a London-based research company, said <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.K.</st1:place></st1:country-region> house values dropped in July 4.4 percent from a year earlier. That's the biggest annual drop since the index started in 2001. <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Sterling</st1:place></st1:city> weakened 0.5 percent to 79.24 pence per euro. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Chinese Yuan <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The Chinese <span class="SpellE">yuan</span> fell 0.2 percent to 6.8345 per dollar after the Communist Party's Politburo said on July 25 that growth and inflation are both priorities, fueling speculation that the government will curb currency appreciation to aid exporters. The <span class="SpellE">yuan</span> has strengthened 7 percent this year, the most among Asia's 10 most-traded currencies outside <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Japan</st1:place></st1:country-region>. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The Australian dollar traded at 95.63 U.S. cents after touching 95.28 cents, the lowest in almost three months. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., the nation's fourth- biggest bank by market value, joined National Australia Bank Ltd., the largest in terms of assets, in warning of increased provisions for non-performing loans. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Six months after correctly identifying <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Australia</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s dollar as one of the best bets in the foreign-exchange market, Daiwa Asset Management Co., the biggest investor in the nation's debt, predicts that the rally is coming to an end. Daiwa, which holds 4 percent of the government's bonds, expects the currency to close the year at $1. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Price Index <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The credit crunch is likely to last for months and may deteriorate further, Stern said in an interview with the Financial Times. Financial firms have reported $467.9 billion in losses and <span class="SpellE">writedowns</span> since the start of 2007. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">U.S.</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPCS20Y%25%3AIND">home prices</a> in the S&P/Case-<span class="SpellE">Shiller</span> index fell 16 percent in May from a year ago, the most on record, according to the median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due tomorrow. <span class="SpellE">Nonfarm</span> payrolls fell by 75,000 in July, following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to a separate survey. The Labor Department will release the employment data on Aug. 1. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``Data on housing and payrolls pose downside risks to the dollar,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Akifumi+Uchida&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"><span class="SpellE">Akifumi</span> Uchida</a>, deputy general manager of the marketing unit at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Tokyo</st1:place></st1:city>. ``Given the state of the housing market, you can't be overly optimistic on the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> economy. That makes it almost impossible for the Fed to raise rates.'' The dollar may fall to 106 yen this week, he said. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Fed Rate Outlook <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 93 percent chance the Fed will keep borrowing costs on hold at 2 percent when it announces its next decision on Aug. 5, up from 64 percent odds a month ago. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Consumer confidence in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Germany</st1:place></st1:country-region> dropped to the lowest in more than five years as soaring energy prices sapped purchasing power. <span class="SpellE">GfK</span> AG's <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=ECO1GFKC%3AIND">index</a> for August, based on a survey of about 2,000 people, declined to 2.1, the lowest since June 2003, from a revised 3.6 in July, the Nuremberg-based market-research company said in a statement today. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The European economy is facing a major setback,'' wrote <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Tomoko+Fujii&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Tomoko <span class="SpellE">Fujii</span></a>, head of <st1:country-region st="on">Japan</st1:country-region> economics and strategy at Bank of America in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Tokyo</st1:place></st1:city>, in a research note today. ``The markets cannot price in an ECB rate hike anymore. We are recommending euro- selling against the dollar.'' The 15-nation currency may fall to $1.54 against the dollar by the end of September, she said. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Crude oil for September delivery gained as much as $1.96 to $125.22 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has tumbled about $23 a barrel from the record $147.27 a reached on July 11.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-40107027803180788022008-07-23T06:12:00.002+07:002008-07-23T06:14:16.256+07:00EUR/USD - Euro Dollar Analisa<h1 class="FxAT">EUR/USD - Euro Dollar</h1><h2 class="FxAT"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPWrJ6ZP5QXZM4cvi9pGLlflQY1ABDjpC8rF6jCRwn714SzHA3ciTOyRmOO7ndQz2wbeba5Jw-G94Zg13pDOxC67dqBYX4qqh8MbAhqqEPdsop9XCOlP7BZ5m3ohjYK1BK3jtoIuduyzU/s1600-h/eurusd.png"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPWrJ6ZP5QXZM4cvi9pGLlflQY1ABDjpC8rF6jCRwn714SzHA3ciTOyRmOO7ndQz2wbeba5Jw-G94Zg13pDOxC67dqBYX4qqh8MbAhqqEPdsop9XCOlP7BZ5m3ohjYK1BK3jtoIuduyzU/s400/eurusd.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5225980604908007330" border="0" /></a>Short term (Intraday)</h2><div class="FxAT_txt">1,5882. EUR USD is in a range between 1,5800 and 1,5950. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should continue to move in 1,5800 / 1,5950 range. We won't take a position. </div><dl class="FxAT"><dt class="FxAT">Resistances</dt><dd class="FxAT">1,5910 - 1,5950</dd><dt class="FxAT">Supports</dt><dd class="FxAT">1,5870 - 1,5800</dd><dt class="FxAT">Long term chart</dt><dd class="FxAT"><a href="http://www.mataf.net/en/forex-chart_eurusd.htm">EUR/USD - Euro Dollar</a></dd></dl><div class="FxAT_txt">updated 22 juli 2008 13:29 GMT</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8122172848858347520.post-56313577001419275492008-07-23T06:10:00.000+07:002008-07-23T06:12:06.870+07:00Dollar Advances as Paulson Stresses Support for U.S. Currency<p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="MsoNormal"><span class="newsstorytitle"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Dollar Advances as Paulson Stresses Support for <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> Currency </span></b></span><b style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">July 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar <span class="GramE">rose</span> the most against the euro in almost a week as Treasury Secretary <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Henry+Paulson&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Henry Paulson</a> voiced support for the currency and the Federal Reserve Bank of <st1:place st="on"><st1:city st="on">Philadelphia</st1:city></st1:place> president said interest rates should be raised. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The greenback extended its gain after breaking $1.59, where orders to sell the euro were clustered, and increased further as crude oil prices fell, traders said. The Canadian dollar dropped against all of the other major currencies as a report showed domestic retail sales rose in May less than economists forecast. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The feeling is that we're at a turning point and things are going to get better from here in the financial sector,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Brian+Dolan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Brian Dolan</a>, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. Paulson's comments ``helped the market get over the mass hysteria about Fannie and Freddie.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The dollar increased 0.4 percent to $1.5851 per euro at 10:28 a.m. in <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>, from $1.5922 yesterday. It fell to $1.6038 on July 15, the weakest since the European currency's 1999 debut. The dollar advanced 0.4 percent to 106.86 yen, from 106.45. The yen was little changed at 169.40 per euro, compared with 169.48, after falling to a record of 169.91 yesterday. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">South Africa</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s rand was the biggest gainer versus the dollar among the world's major currencies as gold prices increased and platinum advanced for the first time in seven days. <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">South Africa</st1:place></st1:country-region> produces about 10 percent of the world's gold and almost 80 percent of its platinum. The rand increased 0.4 percent to 7.5378 versus the dollar. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Canadian Dollar <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><st1:country-region st="on"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Canada</span></st1:country-region><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">'s dollar fell for the first time in three days against its <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> counterpart, dropping 0.6 percent to C$1.0055 per U.S. dollar. Retail sales rose 0.4 percent in May to C$35.8 billion ($35.7 billion), Statistics Canada said today in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Ottawa</st1:place></st1:city>. The median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an increase of 0.6 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The U.S. dollar strengthened today as Paulson said in a speech in <st1:state st="on">New York</st1:state> that he's ``confident'' that lawmakers will pass the bill to ``boost confidence'' in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> mortgage financing. He reiterated that a strong dollar is ``really very important.'' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The dollar touched the record low earlier this month on concern Fannie and Freddie, which own or guarantee almost half of the $12 trillion in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> home loans outstanding, may fail to survive the housing slump. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span class="SpellE"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Plosser</span></span><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;"> on Rates <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Philadelphia Fed President <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Charles+Plosser&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Charles <span class="SpellE">Plosser</span></a> said in a speech today in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, that the U.S. central bank should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later.'' He argued against reductions in two Fed decisions this year. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Two-year U.S. Treasury yields rose 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 2.66 percent. The yield advantage of comparable-maturity German bunds narrowed to 191 basis points. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``<span class="SpellE">Plosser's</span> hawkish comments pushed Treasury yields higher,'' contributing to the dollar's turnaround, said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Matthew%0AKassel&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Matthew <span class="SpellE">Kassel</span></a>, director of proprietary trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">Futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 7 percent chance the Fed will increase its 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point at its Aug. 5 meeting, compared with 40 percent odds a month ago. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro traded earlier near an all-time high versus the dollar as the Italian daily La <span class="SpellE">Stampa</span> reported that European Central Bank executive board member <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Lorenzo+Bini+Smaghi&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Lorenzo <span class="SpellE">Bini</span> <span class="SpellE">Smaghi</span></a> said the bank's main refinancing rate isn't ``exactly restrictive'' at 4.25 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">`Hawkish Noises' <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">``The ECB has continued to make hawkish noises, meaning the euro is going to be quite well-supported in the near term,'' said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ian+Stannard&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Ian <span class="SpellE">Stannard</span></a>, a London-based senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA. The dollar may still rebound to $1.50 by the end of the quarter, he said. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana;">The euro may climb past 170 to an all-time high against the yen as the ECB raises rates a second time this year while the Bank of Japan leaves its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5 percent, according to <span class="SpellE">Commerzbank</span> AG. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">``The Japanese yen has to bear the consequences from having been unable to benefit from falling equity markets over the last weeks,'' currency strategists at the firm led by Frankfurt-based <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ulrich+Leuchtmann&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Ulrich <span class="SpellE">Leuchtmann</span></a> wrote in a note to clients. ``On the backdrop of low key rates, which are unlikely to see any changes in the near future, the general environment will remain difficult for the Japanese currency.''</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0