Thursday, September 6, 2007


The Dollar rose against the Yen Tuesday, tracking a rally in US equities after a report on August manufacturing eased fears of a steep decline in economic activity. Earlier in the session, the Yen pushed higher as a decline in European stocks reflected the unwinding of risky carry trades that use cheaply borrowed Yen to buy higher-yielding currencies. But gains in US share prices reversed that as did a US manufacturing report that showed only a narrow slowdown in August manufacturing activity.
Analysts said "Equities are still driving currencies, and for now, the market isn't pricing in a radical contraction in US growth".
In late trading, the UsdJpy moved 0.54% higher at 116.43, well off a session low of 115.34. Some analysts had earlier said the Yen received a boost from reports that the Qatar government's $50 billion investment fund intended to increase investments in Asia to offset a weakening Dollar.
The EurUsd ended unchanged at 1.3623 after hitting intraday 1.3551 low. Analysts said investors are cautious about building large positions on the Euro ahead of a European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB last raised rates in June, to 4% from 3.75%, and was widely expected to tighten policy again this month until the latest flare-up of market volatility. Recent poll gave a median 40% chance of a rate hike when the European Central Bank meets on Thursday.
US markets are pricing in a quarter-percentage-point cut to the 5.25% federal funds rate when the Federal Reserve meets on Sept. 18. As early as last week, they were bracing for a half-point cut.
Last week, Fed chief Ben Bernanke said the central bank was prepared to take action as necessary if financial turmoil were to start slowing growth, but added it was not the Fed's job to save speculators from investments gone sour.
Key for markets will be Friday's August US employment report, expected to show 110,000 new jobs added, above July's 92,000 gain. Analyst said a report that comes in below 100,000 would stoke fears that the housing slump and credit crisis has started to cost jobs.
The Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Sweden's Riksbank are also meeting this week, though only the Riksbank is expected to lift rates.


Today's Key Issues (time in GMT)

00.00 UK Bank of England starts a two-day rate meeting

08.00 EUR August Euro zone PMI services 57.9 vs 58.3

08.30 UK August PMI services 2.5% vs 3.1% (YoY)

09.00 EUR July Euro zone Retail Sales 0.3% vs 0.4% (MoM)
09.00 EUR July Euro zone Retail Sales 1.0% vs 0.9% (YoY)

12.15 US August ADP Employment Change 83k vs 48k

13.00 CAD Bank of Canada rate decision 4.5% vs 4.5%

14.00 US July Pending Home Sales -2% vs 5%

The Risk Today:

EurUsd was consolidating between 1.3563 and 1.3720 last week low and high. It get closer to the low range and nearby support which cut in at 1.3550, August 24 low, ahead of 1.3449 low from August 22nd. A move below this would be necessary to threaten the current uptrend, and confirmation of trend end under 1.3360. On the upside, a break toward 1.3687 will pave the way for extended gains to 1.3858 key resistance.

GbpUsd failed to confirm a clear break of Trendline resistance 2.0195 to confirm recent uptrend. A break there was required to trigger gains towards 2.0272 and 2.0395 resistances. Uptrend on hold now. On the downside and further to recent development below 2.0100, market looks for a decline towards 1.9916, august 23rd low and potentially 1.9653 key level from August 17th.

UsdJpy The downtrend remains intact below 117.13. Renewed weakness may break toward 113.67 support down to 111.60 ,August 17th low, and may open the way to 110.30 (61.8% retracement). On the uptrend, resistance holds 117.13 August 23rd high, before 118.93 (former 23.6% retracement). A more likely break of 116.61 Trendline resistance (downtrend channel) will open the way up.

UsdChf went up in a 4 consecutive days, rebounding from 1.1989 low to 1.2153 high. On this uptrend, 1.2183 (38.2% retracement of 1.2771 to 1.1819 decline) is holding strong resistance. Initial support holds 1.1989 Friday low. There is very light support till 1.1819. A break down might open the way toward 1.1529 (61.8% projection).

Resistance and Support:

1.3858 K 2.0395 K 118.93 S 1.2216 S
1.3776 M 2.0272 S 117.13 M 1.2183 T
1.3687 S 2.0195 S 116.61 T 1.2153 M
1.3585 2.0090 115.75 1.2120
1.3563 M 1.9916 S 113.67 M 1.1962 S
1.3550 P 1.9653 K 111.60 K 1.1819 T
1.3396 T 1.9622 S 110.30 T 1.1529 S
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

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