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FOREX NEWS U.K

U.K. Pound Falls After BOE Minutes Show 7-2 Rate-Decision Split

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- The pound fell against the euro and the dollar after the minutes of the Bank of England rate-setting meeting showed two policy makers voted to cut borrowing costs.

The U.K. currency dropped, and government bonds rallied, after HBOS Plc, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, plummeted by as much as 17.1 percent in London and denied it had ``liquidity problems.'' Central bank policy makers voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark interest rate at 5.25 percent on March 6, with John Gieve and David Blanchflower dissenting, minutes of the meeting released today showed.

``The pound is being tarred with the same brush as the dollar,'' said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at Rabobank, the third-largest Dutch bank. ``The U.K. has a very significant financial system of great importance to the overall economy. The system is suffering great distress, that's quite clear.''

Britain's currency fell as much as 1.4 percent to 78.94 pence per euro, and was at 78.82 by 4:40 p.m. in London, from 77.88 yesterday. It dropped to $1.9855, from $2.0064, the third day it has traded below $2.

The Bank of England will host a meeting of banking executives tomorrow as officials struggle to ease concern about the health of the country's financial system.

``Senior members of the banking community'' will attend the meeting in London, Lesley McLeod, a spokeswoman for the British Bankers' Association, said in an interview.

U.K. stocks fell, led by HBOS, on speculation the lender may have funding problems. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc also fell.

`No Liquidity Problems'

``There are no liquidity problems,'' HBOS spokesman Shane O'Riordain said in a telephone interview today. ``We have ready access to a deep pool of deposits. We can access the wholesale markets whenever we feel appropriate to do so.''

HBOS has declined by a third in the past three weeks on concern it may be vulnerable to writedowns and higher inter-bank lending costs. Pressures on short-term funding forced Bear Stearns Cos. to agree to a takeover by JPMorgan Chase & Co. this week to stave-off collapse.

The difference between what the U.K. government and banks pay to borrow for three months, a gauge of the availability of funds in the British money markets, rose to a record 179 basis points, from 158 basis points a week earlier. The spread averaged 11 basis points in the first half of 2007.

Barclays Plc, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Investec Securities and BNP Paribas SA brought forward forecasts for the next Bank of England rate cut on signs support for a reduction is building among policy makers.

The key rate will drop to 5 percent on April 10, instead of at the central bank's meeting in May, London-based economists from the banks wrote in notes to clients today.

U.K. government bonds rallied as stock-market losses across Europe stoked investor demand for the safest assets.

The yield on the two-year gilt fell 6 basis points to 3.69 percent. The price of the 5.75 percent security due December 2009 advanced 0.10, or 1 pound per 1,000-pound ($1,996) face amount, to 103.38.

Dollar Advances Versus Yen as Goldman, Lehman Beat Estimates

Dollar Advances Versus Yen as Goldman, Lehman Beat Estimates

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose versus the yen, snapping a four-day slide, as U.S. stocks rallied on stronger- than-forecast earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

The U.S. currency pared losses against the euro, after plunging to a record low yesterday following the fire sale of Bear Stearns Cos. The dollar is still down a fifth straight day against the euro as traders bet the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as much as 1 percentage point today in an attempt to restore confidence to financial markets.

``The market is relieved that these two firms that are viewed as pillars of Wall Street survived the earnings season without major mishaps,'' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at the Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodial bank with over $20 trillion in assets under administration. ``It's a relief for the dollar.''

The dollar rose to 98.28 yen at 10:20 a.m. in New York, from 97.33 late yesterday, when it touched the lowest since August 1995. The U.S. currency traded at $1.5785 per euro from $1.5729 yesterday, when it reached $1.5903, the weakest level since the euro started trading in 1999. The yen dropped to 155 per euro from 153.07. It fell against all 16 of the most-traded currencies as traders put on carry-trade bets funded by loans in Japan, where the benchmark rate is 0.5 percent.

Goldman, the world's biggest securities firm by market value, reported a smaller-than-estimated 53 percent drop in first-quarter profit. Lehman Brothers reported its smallest quarterly profit since 2003, yet still beat analysts' estimates.

Storm Weathered

The dollar fell to record lows against the euro on each of the past five trading days amid concern that losses from credit markets may erode the capital of Wall Street firms.

``The storm has been weathered,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of currency trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. ``The bulk of the dollar losses are in the market right now.''

The British pound rose to $2.020, from $1.999, after a U.K. government report showed inflation accelerated to a nine-month high in February, limiting the Bank of England's scope to cut rates. It also rose to 78.18 pence per euro from 78.69.

The yen lost 1.9 percent against the pound and New Zealand dollar as gaining stocks boosted confidence in carry trades, where investors buy high-yielding assets with loans from Japan, profiting from the difference in rates.

The Swiss franc, also used to fund carry trades, weakened against major currencies. Benchmark rates are 2.75 percent in Switzerland, 5.25 percent in the U.K., 7.25 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.

Stocks Gain

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 2 percent. Stocks in Asia and Europe also advanced.

``The yen is taking its cues from the equity market and its sentiment on risk,'' said Phyllis Papadavid, a London-based currency strategist at Societe Generale SA.

Implied volatility, a gauge of traders' expectations for future price swings, on one-month dollar-yen options fell to 18.75 percent, after reaching 24 percent yesterday, the highest since January 1999, according to Bloomberg data. Lower volatility tends to fuel demand for carry trades because it makes profit from the strategy more predictable.

The U.S. currency has slumped 9 percent against the yen in the past four weeks as losses in credit markets deepened. Japan's Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga said the dollar's decline is ``excessive.''

Nukaga's Concern

Nukaga expressed concern about currency movements for a second day and Kyodo News reported that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is seeking contact with other countries about the dollar's drop. Nippon Steel Corp. said yesterday the surging yen poses a threat to earnings.

``I'm concerned with when the U.S. dollar will reach a bottom, and what monetary policies the U.S. will take,'' China's Premier Wen Jiabao told a press conference, promising ``forceful'' steps to damp inflation. The yuan traded at 7.0830, close to the highest since the end of its dollar link in 2005.

The South Korean won gained 1.5 percent to 1,014 per dollar after Deputy Finance Minister Shin Je Yoon said the central bank will take action against the currency's decline if the market doesn't ``stabilize.'' The currency fell 7.8 percent against the dollar this year and 19 percent versus the yen.

Traders see a 90 percent likelihood the Fed will cut its target rate by 1 point to 2 percent at today's meeting, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. There is a 10 percent chance of a cut to 2.25 percent. The Fed unexpectedly lowered the rate it charges commercial banks for loans by a quarter- point to 3.25 percent on March 16. The decision will be announced at about 2:15 p.m. New York time.

Global stocks slumped yesterday after the Fed helped arrange the purchase of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co. for about 7 percent of its market value as of March 14.

The U.S. currency has lost 15 percent against the euro and 17 percent versus the yen in the past year as the worst housing slump since 1991 forced the Fed to cut its benchmark rate 2.25 percentage points.

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Forex news today

Dollar Falls to Record Low Against Euro, 12-Year Low Versus Yen

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar sank to the weakest ever against the euro and to a 12-year low versus the yen after JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the New York Federal Reserve agreed to provide emergency funding to Bear Stearns Cos., signaling credit market losses may widen.

The U.S. currency also plunged to below parity with the Swiss franc for the first time as traders speculated the Fed will slash interest rates a full percentage point next week to keep a credit-market crisis from triggering a recession.

``The initial reaction is to sell the U.S.: sell the dollar, sell the equities,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of foreign-exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. ``This is bad news; it's definitely a confirmation of the reality that U.S. financial institutions are having a hard time.''

The U.S. currency plunged to $1.5688 per euro, the weakest since the European currency's debut in 1999. It then settled back to $1.5639 per euro at 10:29 a.m. in New York, from $1.5635 yesterday. The dollar sank to 99.57 yen, the weakest since October 1995, and then traded at 100.02 yen from 100.65 yesterday.

It reached as weak as 0.9988 francs per dollar, from 1.0093 francs yesterday.

The New York Fed will ``provide non-recourse, back-to- back'' financing for up to 28 days, JPMorgan said in a statement today. Bear Stearns Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz said today in a separate statement that the firm's ``liquidity position in the last 24 hours had significantly deteriorated.''

Exiting Carry Trades

The announcement on Bear Stearns led traders to exit so- called carry trades, in which they obtain cheap loans in yen and use the funds to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. U.S. stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index dropping 1.7 percent.

The likelihood the Fed will cut its target rate for overnight loans between banks by 100 basis points to 2 percent next week rose to 36 percent, from zero percent yesterday, futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. The balance of bets is on a cut of 75 basis points to 2.25 percent. The central bank has already reduced rates five times since September, from 5.25 percent.

No Relief

``I don't see any relief for the dollar,'' said Win Thin, a currency strategist with Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. ``It's another brush fire for the Fed to put out. It's like you put a finger in the dike and another hole pops up.''

The yen and franc both advanced against more than a dozen major currencies, including about 1 percent against the Australian dollar. The gains came as demand evaporated for the carry trade, where traders borrow cheaply in countries such as Japan and Switzerland and invest in countries such as Australia, where the benchmark rate is 7.25 percent. Japan's main rate is 0.5 percent and Switzerland's is 2.75 percent.

Currency volatility has surged in recent weeks, increasing the risk of the carry-trade strategy. One-month volatility on dollar-yen options was about 16.5 percent, up from about 10.5 percent at the end of last month. Currency swings can erase profits from rate differentials.