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Dollar Falls to Record Low Against Euro on Inflation, Fed View
Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record low against the euro as evidence of slowing inflation encouraged traders to speculate that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs a second time this year.
The government reported today that core consumer prices last month had their smallest annual gain since February 2004. The Fed on Sept. 18 reduced the target rate for overnight lending between banks a half-percentage point to 4.75 percent.
``The dollar was sold on a significantly bearish outlook,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy in
The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.4198 per euro at 9:42 a.m. in
Some traders sold the euro to prevent it from trading above $1.4250, according to Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in
The next level of resistance is $1.4536 per euro, the equivalent of the dollar's record low of 1.3455 deutsche marks in March 1995, he said.
Fed Rate Outlook
Futures contracts today showed 86 percent odds the central bank will lower its target by a quarter-percentage point to 4.50 percent at its next meeting Oct. 31, compared with 14 percent a month ago. The European Central Bank's key borrowing cost is 4 percent, while the Bank of Japan's is 0.5 percent.
The Commerce Department said today that its price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy costs, the Fed's preferred measure, rose 1.8 percent from August 2006 after a 1.9 percent annualized increase the previous month.
The New York-based Conference Board reported on Sept. 25 that its index of consumer confidence fell to 99.8 in September from a revised 105.6 in the previous month. Purchases of new homes fell to an annual rate of 795,000 last month from a revised 867,000 in July, the lowest in more than seven years, the Commerce Department reported yesterday.
The yen rose earlier against the dollar on speculation losses related to subprime mortgage defaults will spread in the
The Financial Times said Northern Rock Plc, a U.K. bank bailed out by the Bank of England, borrowed a further 5 billion pounds ($10 billion) to stay in business.
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar weakened to near a record low against the euro after Federal Reserve officials signaled the need for interest-rate cuts, eroding demand for dollar- denominated assets.
The U.S. dollar index sank to a 15-year low against six major currencies as Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and Fed Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said yesterday credit-market losses may slow growth, while a government report last week showed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs in August. The euro rose for a fifth day versus the dollar, its longest winning streak since June.
``Everyone hates the dollar,'' said Steven Butler, director of foreign exchange trading at Scotia Capital Inc. in
The dollar fell 0.2 percent to $1.3825 per euro at 10:26 a.m. in
The New York Board of Trade's dollar index comparing the
`No Reason'
``There is no reason to buy the dollar,'' said Michael Malpede, a senior currency analyst in
The dollar will drop to $1.40 per euro by October, said Malpede.
The yen fell against all 16 major currencies as a rise in global stocks prompted investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded by loans in
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.6 percent to 1,460.07 after gains in Asian and European equities. Treasuries fell for the first time in three days as demand for the safety of government debt waned.
The spread, or extra yield, investors demand to own emerging-market bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries narrowed 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 2.41 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI Plus index. The drop in the risk premium is the biggest since Aug. 31.
The European Central Bank said it drained a record 60 billion euros ($83 billion) from the money market after the overnight deposit rate slumped below the bank's benchmark lending rate of 4 percent.
`Slight Return'
``You are seeing a slight return of risk appetite,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the Global Markets group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodian bank with over $20 trillion in assets under administration. ``The market now prices in a Fed rate cut next week and there is hope that the credit problems will ease and liquidity will improve. Some of the risk-taking investors are positioning for the eventuality.''
The Japanese currency fell 0.3 percent to 157.51 per euro. The yen dropped 1 percent against the real, 0.9 percent versus the Canadian dollar and 0.4 percent versus the Australian dollar.
`Important Downside Risk'
Mishkin said yesterday there's an ``important downside risk'' to the world's biggest economy and Yellen highlighted ``significant downward pressure.''
Two-year Treasuries yielded 2 basis points less than similar-maturity German bunds amid speculation the Fed will cut its main rate at the Sept. 18 meeting. The
Interest-rate futures show a 56 percent chance the Fed will lower borrowing costs by half a percentage point to 4.75 percent next week. A month ago, traders were expecting a quarter-point cut.
Traders are betting the European Central Bank will raise borrowing costs at least once from 4 percent by year-end.
The implied yield on the December futures contract rose 4 basis points to 4.51 percent. The contract settles to the three- month interbank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged about 16 basis points above the ECB's key rate since 1999.
ECB executive board member Juergen Stark said the decision to leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged last week doesn't mean policy makers have ruled out another increase, Market News International reported.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will deliver a speech at 11 a.m.
A government report showed the U.S trade deficit narrowed during July.
The euro strengthened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3840 level and was supported around the $1.3775 level. Traders await remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke from Berlin later today. Comments from Fed officials yesterday evidenced a wide range of opinions concerning the effects of the current global credit crunch on the U.S. economy. Fed Governor Mishkin reported that if “heightened uncertainty” leads to further pullbacks in household and business spending, “it poses an important downside risk to economic activity.” The Federal Open Market Committee convenes one week from today and many traders believe the Fed will reduce the federal funds target rate by up to 50bps. In contrast to Mishkin’s remarks, Dallas Fed President Fisher suggested a steady course of action would be sensible saying “having a steady hand rather than an itchy trigger finger” is what guides him. Fisher added “I set aside the passions of the moment and the conventional wisdom in the markets and keep a steady focus on the Fed's mission. Conducting monetary policy is not a popularity contest.” Data released in the U.S. today saw the July trade balance narrow to –US$ 59.2 billion, down 0.3% from the upwardly revised –US$ 59.4 billion in June. In eurozone news, the European Commission reduced its EMU-13 growth forecast to +2.8% from its previous projection of +2.9%. Likewise, the EC now sees 2007 inflation at 2.0% compared with earlier forecasts of 1.9%. Also, the German August wholesale price index was up 0.5% m/m and up 2.5% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3620 level.
The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.3795 level and was supported around the $1.3550 level. The pair gained about 140 pips last week. Traders continued to speculate as to what the FOMC will do and say on 18 September. The Fed’s Beige Book saw a “limited” impact of the current credit crunch on the economy outside of housing. Anecdotal August retail sales evidence suggests strong results. A contraction in U.S. August jobs growth and 81,000 downward revision to June’s and July’s tallies will up the Fed’s ante. Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart, Dallas Fed’s Fisher, and St. Louis Fed’s Poole talked up the U.S. economy before the jobs numbers were released. The ECB kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.00% with Trichet noting rates are still “accommodative” and adding rates could move higher by the end of the year. The EC kept its growth forecasts unchanged and still estimates Q3 GDP growth between 0.3% and 0.8% and Q4 GDP growth between 0.2% and 0.8%. ECB’s Weber called on the markets to monitor the central bank’s reaction to data. Data released in the U.S. last week saw the August ISM manufacturing survey recede to 52.9; July construction spending was off 0.4%; ADP private sector jobs were up 38,000 in August; August Challenger job cuts were up 85.2% m/m to 79,459; July pending home sales were off 12.2% m/m; Q2 non-farm productivity was upwardly revised to an annualized 2.6%; Q2 unit labour costs fell to their lowest level in one year at +1.4%; August ISM services printed at 55.8; weekly initial jobless claims were off 19,000 to 318,000; August non-farm payrolls fell 4,000; the August unemployment rate held steady at 4.6%; and August average hourly earnings were up +0.3%. Data released in the eurozone last week saw the August EMU-13 manufacturing PMI survey fall to a 19-month low of 54.3; EMU-13 GDP expanded 0.3% q/q and 2.5% y/y in Q2; August EMU-13 PMI services printed at 58.0; July EMU-13 retail sales were up 0.1% m/m and 0.5% y/y; German July manufacturing orders were off 7.1% m/m; German industrial production was up 0.1% m/m and 4.6% y/y; and Germany’s July current account surplus narrowed to €14.1 billion. Technical Outlook Last week’s high (1) was above the 23.6% retracement of the 1.3261-1.3851 range and last week’s low (2) was right around the 50.0% retracement of the same range. The 1.3840/ 1.3910/ 1.3970 levels represent upside resistance targets while the 1.3555/ 1.3421/ 1.3359/ 1.3302/ 1.3273 levels represent downside support targets
The U.S. dollar index comparing the currency with its six primary peers fell to the lowest in 15 years as the payroll data raised speculation the housing slowdown and credit market turmoil are spilling into the broader economy. Interest-rate futures show traders are betting, with 76 percent certainty, the Federal Reserve will lower rates to 4.75 percent on Sept. 18.
``The things the Fed needs to justify two rate cuts this year are falling into place,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in
The dollar fell 0.6 percent to $1.3771 per euro at 10:46 a.m. in
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the decline in
Euro and Dollar
The yen has gained 6.6 percent against the euro and 9 percent versus the dollar since Bear Stearns Cos. said on June 22 it would bail out a hedge fund that lost money on securities related to loans to homeowners struggling to make payments in the worst housing recession in 16 years.
Investors since then have fled the asset-backed money market and corporate debt while banks curbed lending, forcing global central banks, including the Fed and European Central Bank, to supply cash to ease the credit crunch.
``It's the first clearly recessionary signal out of the economy, and a sign that the subprime problems have crept into the real world,'' said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist in
Payrolls Report
Non-farm payrolls decreased by 4,000 in August from a revised gain of 68,000 a month earlier, the Labor Department in
This week central banks from the U.K., the 13 country euro region, Canada, Australia and South Korea kept rates unchanged as they assess how the credit squeeze will affect economic growth.
Interest-rate futures show a 76 percent chance the Fed will cut borrowing costs to 4.75 percent from 5.25 percent at its Sept. 18 meeting. The odds of a reduction to 5 percent are 24 percent.
``It added significantly to the dollar-negative sentiment,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``The Fed rate cut at this month's meeting is a lock. The question is whether the central bank will cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points.''
The New York Board of Trade's dollar index fell earlier to 79.841, the lowest since September 1992.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said yesterday he hasn't seen ``conclusive'' signs of a housing spillover into the broader economy and warned that inflation has yet to be contained. St. Louis Fed President William Poole said it's not clear yet that the economy will ``nosedive'' and he's not sure of the right response to housing and financial turmoil.
109 Per Dollar
Barclays Capital Inc. strategist Toru Umemoto, the most accurate yen forecaster in 2006 according to a Bloomberg News survey, raised his forecast for the yen to 109 per dollar from a previous estimate of 114.
The pound rose 0.1 percent to $2.0267, rising for a third day versus the dollar, as the yield advantage of the two-year British note rose 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 130 basis points over a comparable-maturity U.S. Treasury security.
European Central Bank policy makers signaled their intention to raise interest rates further to contain inflation once financial-market turbulence has abated.
USD
The euro strengthened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3705 level and was supported around the $1.3635 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just below the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. As expected, European Central Bank kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.00%. ECB President Trichet reported policymakers will act in a “firm and timely manner” to keep inflation below its 2.0% annual target ceiling rate. Trichet also added the ECB will “very closely” monitor price risks over the coming months, noted monetary policy remains on the “accommodative side,” and said policymakers have not ruled out additional tightening by the end of the year. Data released in the eurozone today saw German July manufacturing orders off 7.1% m/m. In
¥/ CNY
