The euro gave back recent gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ $1.5845 level and was capped around the $1.5985 level. The common currency came within fifteen pips of testing the psychologically-important US$ 1.6000 figure before traders booked profits. Data released in the U.S. today saw the April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey fall to -24.9 in April from -17.4 in March while the March leading index moved higher 0.1% - the first increase in six months. It was also reported that weekly initial jobless claims climbed 17,000 to 372,000 while continuing jobless claims rose 26,000 to 2.984 million, the highest since June 2004. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn today suggested a more permanent “liquidity backstop” for primary dealers to maintain the orderly functioning of the U.S. securities market. In eurozone news, European Central Bank member Weber hawkishly reported the ECB’s staff may need to upwardly revised inflation expectations in June. The most recent assessment by the ECB in March projected an average inflation rate of around 2.9% for 2008. Eurogroup President Juncker verbally intervened against the euro’s rise today saw the markets should not underestimate the Group of Seven’s comments this past weekend about currencies. The ECB’s April bulletin was released today and reported temporarily high inflation rates may remain for some time, principally on account of elevated food and energy prices. EMU-15 economic data released today saw the EMU-15 trade surplus reach €800 million in February. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.5345 level.
Euro Advance Against Dollar May Stall on Charts, Citigroup Says
April 9 (Bloomberg) -- The euro's advance against the dollar may stall after its failure to strengthen beyond so- called resistance at $1.5805, said technical analysts led by Tom Fitzpatrick at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Resistance at $1.5805 represents a 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of the euro's decline from its record high of $1.5903 on March 17 to $1.5341 on March 24, according to Citigroup's chart. Since March 24, the euro has rallied 2 percent. Resistance is where sell orders may be clustered.
``The euro-dollar headed higher in its continuing gravity- defying performance, but we still feel that this elevated level is difficult to sustain,'' wrote Citigroup's analysts, including New York-based Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy, in a research note yesterday.
Europe's single currency traded at $1.5703 as of 1:40 p.m. in
``While we still remain biased to believe the euro-dollar may head lower, we need a move through good support levels to support this view,'' the analysts wrote, citing support at $1.5628, between $1.5510 and $1.5574, and at $1.5341.
The $1.5628 level is the April 7 low, the area between $1.5510 and $1.5574 includes the April 3 low, and the $1.5341 level is the March 24 low, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Support is where buy orders may be clustered.
``We need a break below $1.5341 to validate this view and suggest a sub-$1.48 move,'' the analysts wrote. A level below $1.48 would be the euro's lowest since Feb. 26.
Fibonacci analysis is a mathematical formula based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Other Fibonacci points are 23.6 percent, 38.2 percent, 50 percent and 61.8 percent. A break of one indicates a currency may move to the next, while a failure suggests a trend may stall.
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March 19 (Bloomberg) -- The pound fell against the euro and the dollar after the minutes of the Bank of England rate-setting meeting showed two policy makers voted to cut borrowing costs.
The U.K. currency dropped, and government bonds rallied, after HBOS Plc, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, plummeted by as much as 17.1 percent in London and denied it had ``liquidity problems.'' Central bank policy makers voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark interest rate at 5.25 percent on March 6, with John Gieve and David Blanchflower dissenting, minutes of the meeting released today showed.
``The pound is being tarred with the same brush as the dollar,'' said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at Rabobank, the third-largest Dutch bank. ``The
The Bank of England will host a meeting of banking executives tomorrow as officials struggle to ease concern about the health of the country's financial system.
``Senior members of the banking community'' will attend the meeting in London, Lesley McLeod, a spokeswoman for the British Bankers' Association, said in an interview.
`No Liquidity Problems'
``There are no liquidity problems,'' HBOS spokesman Shane O'Riordain said in a telephone interview today. ``We have ready access to a deep pool of deposits. We can access the wholesale markets whenever we feel appropriate to do so.''
HBOS has declined by a third in the past three weeks on concern it may be vulnerable to writedowns and higher inter-bank lending costs. Pressures on short-term funding forced Bear Stearns Cos. to agree to a takeover by JPMorgan Chase & Co. this week to stave-off collapse.
The difference between what the
Barclays Plc, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Investec Securities and BNP Paribas SA brought forward forecasts for the next Bank of England rate cut on signs support for a reduction is building among policy makers.
The key rate will drop to 5 percent on April 10, instead of at the central bank's meeting in May, London-based economists from the banks wrote in notes to clients today.
Dollar Advances Versus Yen as Goldman, Lehman Beat Estimates
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose versus the yen, snapping a four-day slide, as
The
``The market is relieved that these two firms that are viewed as pillars of Wall Street survived the earnings season without major mishaps,'' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at the Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodial bank with over $20 trillion in assets under administration. ``It's a relief for the dollar.''
The dollar rose to 98.28 yen at 10:20 a.m. in
Goldman, the world's biggest securities firm by market value, reported a smaller-than-estimated 53 percent drop in first-quarter profit. Lehman Brothers reported its smallest quarterly profit since 2003, yet still beat analysts' estimates.
Storm Weathered
The dollar fell to record lows against the euro on each of the past five trading days amid concern that losses from credit markets may erode the capital of Wall Street firms.
``The storm has been weathered,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of currency trading at AIG Financial Products in
The British pound rose to $2.020, from $1.999, after a
The yen lost 1.9 percent against the pound and
The Swiss franc, also used to fund carry trades, weakened against major currencies. Benchmark rates are 2.75 percent in
Stocks Gain
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 2 percent. Stocks in Asia and
``The yen is taking its cues from the equity market and its sentiment on risk,'' said Phyllis Papadavid, a London-based currency strategist at Societe Generale SA.
Implied volatility, a gauge of traders' expectations for future price swings, on one-month dollar-yen options fell to 18.75 percent, after reaching 24 percent yesterday, the highest since January 1999, according to Bloomberg data. Lower volatility tends to fuel demand for carry trades because it makes profit from the strategy more predictable.
The
Nukaga's Concern
Nukaga expressed concern about currency movements for a second day and Kyodo News reported that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is seeking contact with other countries about the dollar's drop. Nippon Steel Corp. said yesterday the surging yen poses a threat to earnings.
``I'm concerned with when the U.S. dollar will reach a bottom, and what monetary policies the
The South Korean won gained 1.5 percent to 1,014 per dollar after Deputy Finance Minister Shin Je Yoon said the central bank will take action against the currency's decline if the market doesn't ``stabilize.'' The currency fell 7.8 percent against the dollar this year and 19 percent versus the yen.
Traders see a 90 percent likelihood the Fed will cut its target rate by 1 point to 2 percent at today's meeting, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. There is a 10 percent chance of a cut to 2.25 percent. The Fed unexpectedly lowered the rate it charges commercial banks for loans by a quarter- point to 3.25 percent on March 16. The decision will be announced at about 2:15 p.m.
Global stocks slumped yesterday after the Fed helped arrange the purchase of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co. for about 7 percent of its market value as of March 14.
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