Market Review Blog

China invests billions in oil sands

2011-09-18T14:25:00.000+07:00

China invests billions in oil sandsRobert Lee, a lab technician at ConocoPhillips' Surmont oil sands project in Alberta, examines a vial of water and oil sediment. Looking on is Perry Berkenpas, vice president of oil sands operations for ConocoPhillips Canada. / HC DealmakingFor decades, U.S. and Canadian companies were the biggest investors in Canada's oil sands reserves. But other countries, led by China, have poured billions into Canada's oil sands projects in the past few years.2005China's CNOOC buys 17 percent stake in Calgary-based MEG Energy Corp. 2010PetroChina International Investment Co. buys 60 percent working interest in Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.'s MacKay River and Dover oil sands projects.Sinopec (China Petrochemical Corp.) buys ConocoPhillips' 9 percent stake in Syncrude Canada, the world's biggest oil sands producer.China Investment Corp. buys 45 percent stake in an oil sands project owned by Penn West Energy Trust.Thailand-based PTT Exploration and Production buys 40 percent share in Statoil's Kai Kos Dehseh oil sands project. 2011CNOOC acquires the bankrupt OPTI Canada, whose main asset was a 35 percent working interest in Nexen's Long Lake oil sands project. Source: Houston Chronicle researchHED HEREThis is a precede. This is a precede. This is a precede.Ludbcvude : Ednvu ef9we ewfje9 edcedhMu xhcdhc: Aduiduhuw ue hfewfuehuhEhdfcwehfh: Xewh ewhjwh9e hbb sxjbckjcjc ixsbscThis is my source line right here.Page 1 of 1FORT McMURRAY, Alberta - As U.S. companies look toward oil riches in northern Canada, they're encountering increasing competition - as well as some much-needed cash infusions - from the Far East.U.S. and Canadian companies have dominated Alberta's oil sands for decades. Now, though, Chinese firms are rushing to snap up Canadian oil sands resources and invest in ongoing projects - to the tune of $15 billion in the past 18 months in Alberta alone.They are motivated by a desire to jump into one of the world's lowest-risk oil investments and to quench the exploding energy demands of Asian markets - even though getting the product from Canada to Asia is just a pipe dream now.The foreign funding can help pay for what research firm IHS CERA estimates will be $100 billion in spending on oil sands projects over the next decade.And for a growing number of U.S. oil companies, many based in Houston, the infusion of Chinese cash in Canadian projects is welcome funding for some capital-intensive oil sands projects."Many of the actual oil companies - no matter where they are from - are very interested in partnering," said Jackie Forrest, the Calgary, Alberta-based head of oil sands research for IHS CERA. "That can help raise capital and, in some cases, also bring expertise and knowledge to the partnership."Most of the recent deals have been by Chinese companies buying shares in existing projects. For instance, Sinopec spent $4.65 billion last year buying ConocoPhillips' 9 percent stake in Syncrude Canada Ltd., the world's biggest oil sands producer. And earlier this summer, state-owned CNOOC spent $2.1 billion acquiring the bankrupt OPTI Canada, whose main asset was a 35 percent working interest in Nexen's Long Lake oil sands project in Alberta.Plants want to expandThat influx of capital can help companies ramp up production and expand operations at existing projects, said Alberta Minister of Energy Ronald Liepert."Plants that are currently 25,000 barrels a day, they want to expand to 100,000 barrels a day, and they don't have the capital to do that," he said. "So they're actually on the prowl for investment - and there's real money in China."China isn't the only country getting into the oil sands game from across the Pacific. Companies based in Thailand and Australia also have made plays recently for Canadian oil sands projects and portfolios.Major draws are the low geological risks of Canada's well-explored oil sands, and the nation's political stability."You know the oil is there, so the risk is more in executing the project, getting it online and getting the capital associated with building the project," Forrest said.The Canadian market offers fewer barriers, said Nick Olds, the senior vice president of oil sands for ConocoPhillips Canada."With the oil sands, you've got a significant resource - 173 billion barrels of oil recoverable with current technology, and that's only going to get better," Olds said."If you look at other areas of the world," he said, "it is very difficult to get access to (the) resource." By contrast, the oil sands in Canada are "not state-controlled and they're not government-owned."The "oil" in the Canadian oil sands is bitumen, a hydrocarbon that is as hard as a hockey puck at 50 degrees and can be refined into synthetic crude oil or other products. The oil sands in Alberta are a mixture of sand, water, clay and bitumen that is extracted by open-pit mining and by less invasive in situ techniques that use heat to draw the bitumen directly from the underground reservoirs.Canada's oil sands bounty makes it second only to Saudi Arabia in its reserve base. Its recoverable oil is estimated to be more than 10 times U.S. reserves.Since China doesn't have similar oil sands deposits, the Asian companies investing in Canadian crude aren't so concerned with getting technology and know-how out of their deals. Instead, they are getting the promise of strong returns and the chance of eventually sending some of that oil home."There is a long-term plan to get oil to the East, and it will happen," said Liepert, the Alberta energy minister.Right now, the only real export market for Canada's crude is the United States. But the Midwest refineries that are served by existing border-crossing pipelines are expected to reach their maximum capacity for processing the northern oil supply by 2015, according to IHS CERA.Plans for pipelineAsian markets loom as a new and promising opportunity for oil sands developers eager to command global prices for the product, but there is no immediate avenue to deliver the crude to Asia. The most likely corridor - the Northern Gateway pipeline proposed by Calgary-based Enbridge - has been ensnared in disputes with environmentalists and indigenous communities worried about damage from oil spills.Last month Enbridge disclosed it has enough contracts with shippers to fill the pipeline, which would transport crude 731 miles from Alberta to Kitmat, B.C., for tanker transport to Asian markets.Although Enbridge isn't saying what companies have signed up to use the pipeline, China's Sinopec has confirmed it is helping to finance the $5.5 billion project.A new avenue to Asian markets also would benefit U.S. oil companies with big Canadian crude reserves, including Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Shell.If it gets past regulatory hurdles, the pipeline could be completed as early as 2017."We want to become a global energy superpower," said Liepert. "And you're not going to become a global superpower of anything with one customer."source

FOREX Euro down after rally this week, still in downtrend, what's next?

2011-09-16T22:40:00.002+07:00

Today I visited reuters.com and reading an article about forex and I found this article, Euro down after rally this week , still in a downtrend. Then what will happen next, especially in this week? OK we read the news first!The euro dropped on Friday, as investors locked in profits after this week's rally sparked by global central bank action to boost liquidity, and could stay weak on any negative news coming out of an EU finance ministers' meeting.Analysts said investors also sold the euro, pushing it to session lows against the dollar, after the Bank of Portugal said the Portuguese island of Madeira failed to report information about debts from previous years that amounted to 0.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2010. [ID:nLDE78F07C]."We had a pretty good run-up in euro/dollar the last couple of days from $1.37 to $1.39 because of positive news this week. So we've had a bit of a short squeeze," said Ray Attrill, senior currency strategist, at BNP Paribas in New York.However, he added that market players remained bearish on the euro and those expecting any new policy initiatives from the European Union finance minister's meeting will be disappointed.The euro was last down 0.5 percent at $1.38081 EUR=EBS, off a one-week peak of $1.39370 hit on Thursday but held above a seven-month trough below $1.35 plumbed on Monday. The euro has gained around 1.8 percent so far this week, its best weekly performance since the week of July 24 on trading platform EBS.It fell to a session low of $1.37530, with traders saying it extended losses after stop-loss orders were triggered on the break of $1.37700, with more stops at $1.37500.Overall though investors were reluctant to take large positions ahead of the outcome of an EU meeting in Poland, at which Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is a participant.Geithner told EU finance ministers on Friday they should end loose talk about a euro zone break-up and work more closely with the European Central Bank to tackle the debt crisis. He also said Europe would not see similar global financial coordination as there was in 2009, but that Washington would do what it could to help. For more, see [ID:nL3E7KG0KC].Technical charts indicated the euro could find support around $1.3738, the 23.6 percent retracement of the fall from $1.45500 on Aug.29 to $1.34949 on Sept.12.The euro had hit a one-week high after a coordinated move by central banks on Thursday to provide dollars. Funding strains, evident through the cross currency basis swap market, which had hit some euro zone banks, including large French banks and were impacting the euro, had appeared to be easing.The three-month euro/dollar cross currency basis swap EURCBS3M=ICAP, or the relative premium for swapping euro LIBOR for dollar LIBOR tightened to around minus 88 basis points from on Friday, a day after the action from global central banks. It narrowed from as wide as minus 115 basis points on Monday.Wider spreads reflect elevated demand to borrow U.S. dollars in the currency forward market and often supports the greenback's spot value against the euroIn the options market euro/dollar month implied vols - measure of investor demand to protect against spot price volatility - were steady around 14.20 percent and off this week's high of around 18 percent EURVOL.FED EASING EYEDWhile investors remain wary of the euro, they are also reluctance to take long positions in the dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where policymakers may flag another round of quantitative easing to boost the economy.That move should weigh on the dollar and help riskier assets rally, although analysts said some market players thought "Operation Twist" was the more likely outcome.In such a scenario the Fed would buy longer dated Treasury bonds and sell shorter dated ones to keep rates at the longer end lower without expanding the balance sheet.Daragh Maher, FX strategist at Credit Agricole in London said the "Operation Twist" could be positive for the dollar because it would stimulate growth. "It would be seen as delivering stimulus without printing....dollars."The ICE Futures' dollar index was last up 0.4 percent at 76.551 .DXY. Against the yen, the dollar remained stuck at 76.730 yen JPY=EBS, flat on the day. The threat of Japanese intervention has helped keep dollar/yen in a tight range and above its all-time low of 75.94 yen. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in London; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio) source

Franc Falls as Bernanke Improves Sentiment on Markets

2011-08-27T15:05:00.000+07:00

Hi All today I check this blog and want to read somethink but I can't so.. I just copying this news about Franc Falls as Bernanke Improves Sentiment on Markets!!

You can read the news bellow!

The Swiss franc slumped today after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. S. Bernanke spoke today, improving sentiment on markets, while rumors abound that Switzerland’s policy makers are preparing another action to weaken the Swiss currency.

There are different opinions on what steps Switzerland is going to take in order to weaken its currency. Some analysts speculate that the Swiss National Bank is preparing another intervention. Some experts predict that local banks may impose charges for franc deposits. Whatever the truth is, the rumors undermine franc’s strength.

Optimism, caused by the speech of Chairman Bernanke, influenced the franc even more, perhaps. Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, thought:

What Bernanke said suggested was perhaps the world’s economic weakness is not so bad that it warrants another round of QE, and that helped to damp demand for the franc. There has also been speculation about the SNB’s possible further action on the franc, which makes the market cautious.

USD/CHF climbed from 0.7928 to 0.8060 as of 20:11 GMT today after touching the daily high of 0.8157, the highest level since July 22. EUR/CHF advanced from 1.1401 to 1.1684. CHF/JPY sank from 97.61 to 95.05, while earlier it reached the lowest price since June 20 — 94.44.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Swiss Franc, feel free to post them using the commentary form below. source: http://www.topforexnews.com/2011/08/26/franc-falls-as-bernanke-improves-sentiment-on-markets/

Fed buys $1.5 bln in TIPS; Treasurys stay up

2011-03-04T23:50:00.005+07:00

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $1.5 billion in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities on Friday, as part of a program that is the centerpiece of the Fed's easy monetary policy. Dealers offered the Fed $4.261 billion debt maturing from 2013 through 2041. After the buyback, Treasurys stayed higher. Yields on 10-year notes, /quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y (UST10Y 3.51, -0.04, -1.15%) , which move inversely to prices, fell 5 basis points to 3.51%

Risk Appetite Subdued Ahead Of US GDP- USD Firms

2010-07-31T12:08:00.000+07:00

Hai there, welcome back to market review blog. Now we have news from GDP USD. Check it out

Asia Pacific markets were lower after a lackluster performance in US equities saw the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq fall by .3%, .4%, and .6% respectively. Disappointing topline revenues and softer guidance reports weighed on sentiment one day before the US is set to release Q2 GDP figures. Remarks made by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard also helped subdue risk appetite after he suggested that the US is moving closer to Japanese-style deflation and may need additional quantitative easing measures. The Hang Seng index, the Shanghai SE composite, and the S&P/ASX 200 index were off by .3%, .4%, and .7% respectively. The Nikkei 225 was the worst performer, losing more than 1.6% after a report showed June industrial production had fallen by 1.5% m/m. Consensus estimates had called for an uptick to .2% from .1% a month earlier. Japanese markets have fallen more than 2% in the past three sessions amid ongoing concerns regarding the health of the US recovery and persistent strength in the yen. The dollar slid to a 8 month low versus the yen, as uneasy investors seek haven ahead of today's US data flow.

Commodities were mostly lower, with crude oil paring gains to trade at $77.70per barrel at 10am in London. Gold holds just beneath $1170 per ounce after failing to break through the $1160 support level earlier in the week. Risk-off trades supported the dollar, with the index trading higher by .6% to 81.90. Treasury yields continue to fall, with the 10-year note falling to 2.95% and the 5-year yielding 1.63%.

Euro Retreats After Testing 1.31

The euro reversed yesterday's gains after testing the 1.31 handle early in the US session. Disappointing German retail sales figures accelerated haven flows, pushing the single currency as low as 1.2980. Eurozone unemployment was in line with expectations, with the figure printing at 10.0%. Support is seen at the lower bound trendline of the ascending channel at 1.2960. Downside risk for the euro increases with a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the July 20th and 29th crests, at 1.2920, with targets eyed lower at the 1.28 figure, and 1.2740. Interim resistance stands at 1.3045, backed by the 1.31 handle, and 1.3150.

Euro Gains on Speculation Traders Exiting Bets on Its Decline

2010-05-22T05:59:00.000+07:00

The market review blog today news Euro Gains on Speculation Traders Exiting Bets on Its Decline.

The euro climbed to its highest level in a week against the dollar amid speculation investors who bet on its decline amid Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis had to buy back the currency as it strengthened for a third day.

The euro headed for its largest five-day gain in eight months after yesterday rising from its lowest level since 2006 as traders theorized the European Central Bank may intervene to support the currency. German lawmakers today approved their country’s share of a $1 trillion euro-region bailout. The yen swing between gains and losses against the dollar as U.S. stocks gained for the first time in four days.

“There was certainly capitulation,” said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., world’s largest custodial bank, with more than $20 trillion in assets under administration. “It was scorched earth yesterday and players are on the sideline licking their wounds. It may take weeks, or even months, for risk appetite to return.”

The euro advanced 0.6 percent to $1.2567 at 10:24 a.m. in New York from $1.2487 yesterday, after earlier rising to $1.2672, the strongest since May 13. The currency, which touched a four-year low of $1.2144 on May 19, has gained 1.7 percent versus the greenback this week, the most since the five days ending Sept. 11, 2009.

‘More Decisive’

The shared currency gained 0.9 percent to 113.02 yen from 111.99. It yesterday plunged as much as 3.8 percent to the weakest against the Japan’s currency since November 2001. The yen traded at 89.75 per dollar from 89.68. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose as much as 0.9 percent after earlier falling as much as 1.5 percent that dragged it below its weakest level during the May 6 market rout.

The euro gained before European Union President Herman Van Rompuy hosts a meeting of finance ministers in Brussels today to discuss reforms to economic governance.

“Today’s meeting is an excuse to indulge in some short covering,” said Audrey Childe-Freeman, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. “There is little chance of any more big announcements today, but like the rumors of intervention it’s enough to give a little relief to the euro for now.”

Hedge funds and other large speculators on May 11 increased bets on a decline in the euro to 113,890 contracts more than those anticipating a gain, the most ever, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Europe’s single currency has dropped 5.9 percent this year against its developed-world counterparts, according to Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes.

Carry Trade

Today’s vote by German lawmakers allayed market concern they would balk at approving a second emergency loan package in as many weeks. The lower house of parliament voted 319 to 73 in favor of contributing as much as 148 billion euros ($184 billion) to indebted European states to backstop the euro; 195 lawmakers abstained. The upper house, or Bundesrat, also passed the measure, sending it on to President Horst Koehler for signature.

Brazil’s real dropped 6.6 percent against the yen this week as price fluctuations remained at elevated levels, sapping demand for carry trades, in which investors buy higher-yielding assets with amounts borrowed in nations with low interest rates. Japan’s benchmark lending rate of 0.1 percent, less than the 9.5 percent in Brazil, has made the yen popular for funding such transactions.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s implied-volatility index for six major currencies versus the dollar climbed to as high as 16.95 percent yesterday, the most since April 2009. The index traded at 16.22 percent today.

“The environment is becoming unstable with volatility at very high levels,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “The yen is about the only currency that does really well in this environment.”

‘Extremely Antsy’

Higher volatility suggests a greater risk for carry trades, where gains in the funding currency erode profits from the interest-rate differential, and may cause losses as it becomes more expensive.

The yen fell earlier versus the dollar after comments by Finance Minister Naoto Kan raised speculation Japanese authorities may act to weaken the currency. The yen surged more than 2 percent against the greenback yesterday.

“We must closely monitor the situation to make sure this won’t cause excessive yen appreciation,” he said.

A stronger yen reduces the competitiveness of Japanese goods overseas. Japan’s large manufacturers expect the currency to average 91 per dollar this fiscal year, according to a recent Bank of Japan Tankan survey.

“Yen below 90 is already an expensive yen,” Steven Englander, head of Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup in New York said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today. “There is an opportunity to short the yen at 90.”

‘Elevated Threat’

There is an “elevated threat” the central banks of Europe, the U.S. and Japan will intervene in currency markets though the threshold has not yet been reached, according to Morgan Stanley.

The chance of joint intervention by the Group of Three has increased to 30 percent, above the long-term average of 12 percent, Sophia Drossos, co-head of global foreign-exchange strategy at the U.S. investment bank, wrote in a note to clients. The probability is based on a model that takes into account factors such exchange-rate momentum and market positioning.

“The strongest warning signals in our model have been coming from the pace of euro decline rather than the direction of the move itself,” New York-based Drossos wrote in the note yesterday. “Other indicators in our model suggest euro weakness does not appear out of line with fundamentals or policy preferences.”

Euro Sales Extend as Morgan Stanley Mulls EU Breakup

2010-04-30T07:55:00.000+07:00

This is forex times ... April 29 (Bloomberg)- Investors are abandoning the euro at a rate not seen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as Europe’s worsening fiscal crisis threatens to splinter the 16-nation currency union.

Pension funds and banks sold euros this month at the fastest pace since the second half of 2008, when the currency tumbled more than 25 percent against the dollar between mid-July and the end of October, according to Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the world’s biggest custodian of financial assets with $23 trillion. Demand for options giving the right to sell the euro against the dollar versus those allowing for purchases rose yesterday to the highest level since November 2008.

“The assumptions that went into the makeup of the euro- zone, and hence the euro, are now being brought into question and revalued,” said Eric Busay, a manager of currencies and international bonds in Sacramento at the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension, with $202 billion under management. “There are differences, and screaming differences, that have now been shown between the regions of the euro-zone.”

While the euro became a rival to the dollar after the common currency’s inception in 1999, the debt crisis that began in Greece shows how it is being shaken by one country comprising 2.6 percent of the region’s economy. The euro’s 11 percent decline in the past six months made it the worst performer among its 16 most-traded peers. Standard & Poor’s cut the credit ratings on Greece, Portugal and Spain in the last two days.

Central-Bank Holdings

Credit-default swaps on the debt of Greece, Portugal and Spain climbed to record highs as the 16 nations making up the euro failed to bridge economic and political differences fast enough for traders.

The euro fell to a one-year low of $1.3115 yesterday in New York, down from 2009’s high of $1.5144 on Nov. 25, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in Berlin the “stability of the euro zone” was at stake if a 45 billion-euro ($59 billion) loan package for Greece orchestrated by the International Monetary Fund can’t be delivered soon.

Currency strategists are having a hard time keeping up with the decline. The median average of 32 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg is for the currency to end the year at $1.32. In February, the estimate was $1.43. The euro was at $1.3236 at 3:25 p.m. in London today.

Dumping Bonds

Bank of New York Mellon’s chief currency strategist, Simon Derrick in London, said the euro may tumble to $1.10 by the end of 2011. Morgan Stanley predicts it will trade at $1.24 by year- end. Without central bank support, the euro’s long-term fair value is $1.20, UBS AG said April 26.

Investors are on course to sell a net 50 billion euros of euro-region bonds this year, compared with purchases of 225 billion euros in 2009, according to a Nomura Holdings Inc. projection.

Central banks reduced the share of euros in their $8.1 trillion of reserves to 27.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 from 28 percent in the previous three months, according to Morgan Stanley calculations based on IMF data. The figure was about 17 percent when the euro was introduced 11 years ago.

“Central bankers and institutional investors have spent 10 years pricing out the likelihood of a euro-zone break-up, and now they have to price it in again,” said Emma Lawson, a currency strategist in London at Morgan Stanley. “The euro will no longer have this additional support going forward.”

‘Shift in Attitudes’

The euro’s one-month option risk-reversal rate fell to minus 1.97 percent yesterday, the lowest level since Nov. 4, 2008, and down from minus 0.9 two weeks earlier, signaling a relative increase in demand for puts, which grant traders the right to sell the currency. It was at minus 1.7 percent today.

“Euro weakness is driven by a broad shift in investor attitudes, a shift which goes well beyond shorter-term foreign- exchange position changes within hedge funds,” Nomura foreign- exchange analysts Jennifer Hau in London and Jens Nordvig in New York wrote in an April 20 report to clients.

The euro, introduced on Jan. 1, 1999, at a rate of about $1.17, weakened to 82.30 U.S. cents in 2000 as the region’s economy slumped amid the bursting of the dot-com bubble. It peaked at $1.6038 in July 2008 as the global financial crisis worsened.

While the European Union shares a common monetary policy, members are responsible for their own fiscal decisions. That allowed Greece’s budget deficit to expand to almost 14 percent of its gross domestic product, exceeding the EU’s 3 percent limit without penalty. Germany’s is 3.2 percent of its GDP.

‘Vulnerable Spot’

Greece’s $357 billion economy is 2.6 percent of the euro zone’s $13.6 trillion and compares with $3.65 trillion for Germany, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Even though Merkel called for a quick resolution of the aid package for Greece, she has delayed German approval of loans in the face of voter opposition. Almost 60 percent of Germans don’t want to help Greece, the Die Welt newspaper reported this week, citing a survey of 1,009 people.

“The problem with Europe, and people had forgotten about this over the past decade, is that the experiment of monetary union without political union, and without any sort of federalism across the euro-zone, puts them in a very vulnerable spot,” Scott Mather, head of global portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Munich, said in a Bloomberg radio interview on April 26.

‘Nationalistic’ Tendencies

“So when push comes to shove and you have these large imbalances that develop between countries, it is very likely that they go back to the old world of being more nationalistic,” said Mather, whose Newport Beach, California- based firm runs the $220 billion Total Return Fund, the world’s biggest bond fund.

The outlook for the euro and the dollar are both poor, according to Kenneth Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist and professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. President Barack Obama has increased U.S. marketable debt to an unprecedented $7.76 trillion to fund a budget deficit the government predicts will swell to $1.6 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30.

“There’s a tremendous surge to diversify out of the dollar, and the euro is still the main alternative,” Rogoff said in a telephone interview. “Both the euro and the dollar have their longer-term vulnerabilities.”

Since 2001 the percentage of currency reserves held in dollars has fallen to 62.1 percent from 72.7 percent, according to the IMF in Washington.

‘Great Solution’

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Mundell said the Greek crisis is a fiscal issue, not a broader credibility peril for Europe’s common currency.

“It’s not a euro problem; the euro has been a great solution,” Mundell, a professor at Columbia University in New York, said in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television. “It’s a deficit and debt problem.”

Mundell said there must be conditions attached to the financing package for Greece with a year-by-year target to reduce the country’s debt and cut its deficit “well below 3 percent” of GDP.

“It could be handled if the Greeks would be able to demonstrate to Germany and the other countries that they will keep the line and do this,” Mundell said. “There has to be that transformation, otherwise the alternative is a big restructuring of the Greek debt.”

Bigger Than TARP

The euro’s weakness may also help Europe’s economy rebound as its exports become more competitive. Bundesbank President Axel Weber said April 26 that Germany’s recovery will gather steam in the second quarter. The nation’s exports rose 5.1 percent in February from the previous month, the most since June 2009, a government report showed on April 9.

To fix the region’s fiscal crisis the EU may need a plan larger than the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program deployed by the U.S. after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

Lower credit ratings on EU nations may force banks to boost the amount of capital they’re required to hold against bets on sovereign debt, said Brian Yelvington, head of fixed-income strategy at broker-dealer Knight Libertas LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. While bank capital rules give a risk weighting of zero percent for government debt rated AA- or higher, it jumps to 50 percent for debt graded BBB+ to BBB- on the S&P scale and 100 percent for BB+ to B-.

Soaring Yields

Yields on Greek two-year notes soared to a record 26 percent yesterday. Portugal’s jumped to 7.05 percent and Spain’s reached 2.53 percent. S&P lowered its rating on Greece by three steps to BB+, or below investment grade, from BBB+ on April 27, minutes after cutting Portugal to A- from A+. It reduced Spain’s rating one step to AA from AA+ yesterday.

“The euro is not the euro we initially bought into,” said Roddy Macpherson, investment director in Edinburgh at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Ltd., which manages the equivalent of $216 billion of assets. “The whole confidence in the euro has taken a bit of a bashing. We’re short the euro.”

Pound Rises with Increasing U.K. House Prices

2010-04-27T06:40:00.000+07:00

The Great Britain pound gained today, paring its previous losses, after the report about the rising house prices increased the confidence that the economic recovery in the U.K. is strengthening.

These news have brought necessary refreshment to support the sterling’s performance after the concerns about the budget deficit and the uncertainty about the election’s outcome. In fact, the talks began that the Conservatives will win the election and will form the government strong enough to deal with the budget shortage, further strengthening the pound. The resulting optimism let some analysts expect that the pound will rise to 1.56 level against the U.S. dollar.

GBP/USD traded at 1.5472 as of 13:00 GMT today after opening at 1.5384. EUR/GBP traded near 0.8620 down from its opening level of 0.8673.

Canadian Dollar News, He Remains Near Parity

2010-04-27T06:31:00.000+07:00

Hi there, how about your forex today? Lets see this Canadian Dollar news today! The Canadian dollar trades near parity with its U.S. counterpart as the traders await the outcome of the 45 billion euro aid package, provided by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to Greece.

With the clarity about the bailout the global equity markets will be spurred, boosting the commodity currencies. The Loonie, as the Canadian currency commonly nicknamed, can be considered such currency as its performance depends on the moves of the equities and the commodities, like earlier, when the currency dropped after the prices for the oil, the biggest nation’s export, declined.

The experts think that outcome of the Greece’s crisis and the reaction of the markets on it will have significant impact on the Canadian dollar performance. Though, even if the rescue will be considered successful, the optimism for the European economy may be short-lived.

USD/CAD traded near 1.0007 as of 21:37 GMT at its opening rate today. EUR/CAD traded at about 1.3406 after opening at 1.3331.

Social Media Marketing Works

2010-04-26T06:34:00.001+07:00

You will be surprised to know that every second million people access social network such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and MySpace account to communicate and just to be socialized virtually. This absolutely is very much profitable for improving internet marketing. The overflowing visitors of a social network will be a good market for any products and services. Internet marketing is a mere project of smart work. Therefore, it needs only excellent strategy to boost the website traffic and increase a conversion number. The point of a good marketing strategy is to gain as many visitors as possible. The social network sites will be one of the best facilities to do so. It is the place where thousands and even millions people are gathering-searching for anything.

There are always chances for those visitors to view the products or services that are being advertised in such social networks. Social media marketing is simply effective to use. Facebook marketing is definitely a good decision that will be any internet marketing support. The only thing that the internet marketers should do is to contact a reliable platform to help them connect with their potential customers. In conclusion, with a media like facebook, a good business platform with excellent expertise, and strong business relationship, internet marketing will reach a success.

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

2010-04-24T11:05:00.000+07:00

This is Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400) use this for analysys your trading...

€

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3375 level and was supported around the $1.3200 figure. The common currency retraced some of its intraweek losses after Greece officially requested financial assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The European Commission, European Central Bank, and the Eurogroup reported they are “taking note” of Greece’s request to “activate the financial support mechanism,” adding they “will decide upon the activation of this mechanism.” There is market talk that Greece will receive its first funding tranche before 19 May. The speed with which the European Union agrees to rescue Greece will partially be determined by the speed with which German Chancellor Merkel can push the unpopular bailout through the German legislature. Yesterday, Greece’s debt ratings were downgraded by Moody’s Investor Services. The activation of the financial assistance package for Greece will provide the country with a little bit of financial stability but there is talk that Greece will require well in excess of €100 billion in aid from the international community. Additionally, the euro may still continue to probe new multi-month lows because there is a higher threat that contagion will see Greece’s fiscal problems move to other highly-indebted eurozone countries including Portugal and Spain. G-7 and G-20 officials will discuss sovereign credit risk, exchange rates, Greece, global financial reform, and other key topical issues when they convene this weekend in Washington, D.C. Eurozone February industrial new orders were up 1.5% m/m and 12.2% y/y in data released today. Also, the German April Ifo business climate index rallied to 101.6 from 98.2 while the April Ifo current assessment index improved to 99.3 and the April Ifo expectations index rallied to 101.9. Also, French March consumer spending was up 1.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. In U.S. news, data released today saw March durable goods orders decline 1.3%, a reversal from the revised prior reading of +1.1%, while the ex-transportation component was up 2.8%, up from the revised prior reading of 1.7%. Also, March new home sales were up 26.9% y/y to an annualized 411,000 units, a multi-decade record-setting pace. Press reports suggest Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is not convinced about the timing of asset sales to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3175 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥94.20 level and was supported around the ¥93.30 level. The pair continues to rise as there are increasing signs the U.S. economic recovery is taking root. The Japanese media is reporting Bank of Japan may raise its consumer price index forecast for fiscal year 2011 to near zero per cent growth, up from January’s estimate of -0.2%. Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa spoke yesterday and reported inflation targets are one cause of asset price bubbles. It is likely that Shirakawa and other BoJ officials will resist the government’s likely call to adopt an inflation target, perhaps as high as 2% per year. Ahead of this weekend’s G-7 and G-20 meetings in Washington, D.C., Shirakawa said exchange rates should not be utilized to resolve trade disputes. Data released in Japan overnight saw the February all-industry activity index decline 2.3% m/m, a reversal from the upwardly revised +3.4% climb in January. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.32% to close at ¥10,914.46. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥96.85 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥125.20 level and was supported around the ¥123.40 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥144.50 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8274 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8264. Attention will be focused on the G-7 and G-20 meetings in Washington, D.C. this weekend to determine how much multilateral pressure there is on China to revalue its yuan currency. Many China-watchers believe China may allow the yuan to appreciate at any time between now and the end of the quarter. Data released in China overnight saw the March leading index decline to 104.98 from the revised prior reading of 105.11.

₤

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.5295 level and was capped around the $1.5400 figure. Data released in the U.K. today saw Q1 gross domestic product up 0.2% q/q and off 0.3% y/y, lower-than-expected on the quarterly basis and stronger-than-expected on the year-over-year basis. Prime Minister Brown will likely note these data suggest the economy is accelerating while his opponents in the 6 May General Election will note that economic growth remains very weak. Many political pundits believe the contest will result in a hung Parliament and some now say the general election is too close to call with Cameron perhaps still holding a slight lead over Brown. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5140 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8700 figure and was supported around the £0.8605 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0850 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0745 level. Swiss National Bank Chairman Hildebrand said he is “skeptical” of the International Monetary Fund’s G-20 bank tax proposal. Swiss National Bank and Swiss regulators announced new regulations this week that mandate UBS and Credit Suisse to hold larger amounts of reserves to defend against crisis scenarios. Data released in Switzerland today saw the March trade balance expand to CHF 2.01 billion from the prior reading of CHF 1.29 billion while the April ZEW expectations survey fell back to 53.4 from 53.8. Dealers continue to cite talk that Swiss National Bank may be intervening by bidding the euro/ franc cross higher. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0920 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.4355 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6490 level.

Let the Professional Web Designer do the Tough Job

2010-04-22T11:17:00.007+07:00

A successful internet marketer has to set everything up with a perfect appearance, content, and strategy. Sometimes, people want to be a perfectionist in managing everything in their projects of internet business by themselves. But this will actually not effective since people capacity and energy is limited. There are a lot of things to prepare to reach successful internet marketing while people’s concentration cannot solve too many problems. Their concentration will split resulting bad effects for every preparation they are making. Therefore, they should use a reliable service as their partners in making a wonderful preparation. The most profitable service to use is absolutely the web designer service. Website design is a major component in an internet marketing that will give the first impression of the products and services offered. Therefore, attractive appearance is the essential part of websites that will also influence the amount of visitors and returns.

Great service such as San Francisco Web Development Company dedicates its work to help people with that trouble. This company understands that a website is not a mere a page but it should be a home for everyone who visits it. This Custom Web Development Company knows that visitors do not come to operate a website; they want to feel comfortable and get a very captivating impression through the website content. To create such perfect website is not easy at all. Therefore, it will be more profitable to let the expert do the tough job of building a charming website. Visit the web design resources on this service, enjoy the professional work of the expert staffs, and be a successful internet marketer.

Easy Learning Money Management

2010-04-14T06:14:00.001+07:00

Money management is very important and used in Investment management and deals with the question of how much risk a decision maker should take in situations where uncertainty is present. More precisely what percentage or what part of the decision maker's wealth should be put into risk in order to maximize the decision maker's utility function.

Let's to learn money management for better earning

Money management gives practical advice among others for gambling and for stock trading as well.

Money management can mean gaining greater control over outgoings and incomings, both in personal and business perspective. Greater money management can be achieved by establishing budgets and analysing costs and income etc.

In stock and futures trading, money management plays an important role in every success of a trading system. This closely related with trading expectancy:

“Expectancy” which is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per dollar at risk. Mathematically:

Expectancy = (Trading system Winning probability * Average Win) – (Trading system losing probability * Average Loss)

So for example even if a trading system has 60% losing probability and only 40% winning of all trades, using money management a trader can set his average win substantially higher compared to his average loss in order to produce a profitable trading system. If he set his average win at around $400 per trade (this can done using proper exit strategy) and managing/limiting the losses to around $100 per trade; the expectancy is around:

Expectancy = (Trading system Winning probability * Average Win) – (Trading system losing probability * Average Loss) Expectancy = (0.4 x 400) - (0.6 x 100)=$160 - $60 = $100 net average profit per trade (of course commissions are not included in the computations).

Therefore the key to successful money management is maximizing every winning trades and minimizing losses (regardless whether you have winning or losing trading system, such as %Loss probability > %Win probability).

Money management is the process of managing money. It is including investment, budgeting, banking and taxes. it is also called investment management.

Money management is a strategic technique employed at making money yield the highest of interest-yielding value for any amount of it spent. Spending money to provide answers to all cravings (regardless of whether they are justifiable or not to be included in budget basket) is a natural human phenomenon. The idea of money management techniques is developed to plummet the amount individual, firm and institutions spends on items that add no significant value to its living standard, long-term portfolios and asset-basins. Warren Buffet, in one of his documentaries, admonished prospective investors to embrace his highly-esteemed "frugality" ideology. This is the basis of every sound money management formulas. The following are powerful techniques that can be employed in making every expense made to be worth it:

1. cutting your budget on social needs
2. avoid any snob-appealing expense
3. always go for the most cost-effective alternative (establishing small quality-variance bench-mark, if any)
4. increase expenses more on interest bearing item than any other thing
5. establish the expected benefits of every desired expense using the canon of plus/minus/nil to standard of living value system.
These techniques are investment-boosting and portfolio-multiplying.

Yen Advances as Credit Losses Damp Demand for Higher Yields

2008-08-20T07:01:00.001+07:00

Yen Advances as Credit Losses Damp Demand for Higher Yields

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The yen increased to a three-month high against the euro on speculation financial firms will report more losses, reducing demand for higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.

Japan's currency also advanced versus the dollar and the Australian dollar on concern Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the largest underwriter of mortgage bonds before the subprime market collapsed, may post $4 billion in credit writedowns. The dollar traded near a six-month high against the euro as U.S. wholesale prices increased in July twice the amount forecast.

``The downbeat assessment from big names in the investment community is weighing on the market,'' said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. ``Risk aversion is coming back.''

The yen climbed 0.3 percent to 161.28 per euro at 10:32 a.m. in New York, from 161.82 yesterday, after touching 160.87, the strongest level since May 13. The yen advanced 0.3 percent to 109.78 per dollar, from 110.13. The dollar traded at $1.4692 per euro, compared with $1.4694, after reaching $1.4631, the strongest level since Feb. 20.

Japan's currency rose 0.5 percent to 95.16 per Australian dollar and advanced 0.5 percent to 204.45 versus the pound as concern that Lehman writedowns may deepen discouraged the carry trade, in which investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher. The Bank of Japan held its target lending rate at 0.5 percent today, the lowest among industrialized countries. That benchmark compares with 5 percent in the U.K. and 7.25 percent in Australia.

Outlook for Lehman

JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicted Lehman may lose $3.30 a share in the third quarter, more than three times the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Financial institutions have posted more than $500 billion of losses and writedowns since the start of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 0.9 percent, while Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 slid 2.1 percent. The MSCI Asia- Pacific Index of regional shares lost 2.1 percent.

Banks are being ``crushed by ballooning debts,'' said Tetsuhisa Hayashi, chief manager of foreign-exchange trading at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan's largest lender by market value. ``Risk aversion among investors will cause further yen buying,'' driving the Japanese currency to 100 per dollar by year-end, Hayashi said.

Producer Prices

The dollar briefly strengthened versus the euro after the U.S. Labor Department reported that producer prices climbed 1.2 percent in July after increasing 1.8 percent the previous month. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an increase of 0.6 percent.

``The market is seizing on any data that suggest interest rates need to go higher,'' said Stephen Malyon, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. ``Our view is that inflation won't be a major problem in the medium term. Once the market gets a chance to reflect on that, it should be less dollar-bullish.''

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 16 percent chance the U.S. central bank will raise the 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter- percentage point by its Dec. 16 meeting, down from 37 percent odds a week earlier. Policy makers next meet Sept. 16.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said in a speech in Aspen, Colorado, that the U.S. economy may face a persistent rise in inflation as higher food and energy prices prompt companies to pass on cost increases.

Fisher's Dissent

Fisher's comments reflect his decision at the Aug. 5 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee to dissent for a fifth time this year, preferring an increase in the benchmark interest rate. Central bank policy makers signaled two weeks ago a pause in any change in borrowing costs, noting falling employment and persistent financial market turmoil.

Crude oil for September delivery fell 0.2 percent to $112.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Bank of Japan cut its economic assessment for a second straight month, acknowledging that threats to growth outweigh decade-high inflation as its chief concern. The world's second- largest economy shrank last quarter, putting it on the brink of the first recession in six years.

The revised BOJ outlook ``will place even less pressure on the yen to appreciate in the middle to long term,'' wrote Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo and a former BOJ currency trader, in a research note today.

RBS pushed back its forecast for a BOJ rate increase to the fourth quarter of 2009 from the second quarter, Yamamoto said, confirming the contents of the report.

news forex

2008-08-15T07:04:00.000+07:00

Euro Trades Near 5 1/2-Month Low Versus Dollar as GDP Shrinks

Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded near a 5 1/2-month low against the dollar after a report showed Europe's economy contracted for the first time since the 15-nation currency was introduced almost a decade ago.

Europe's currency has traded in a range of about $1.48 to $1.51 this week after dropping 3.6 percent last week, the biggest weekly decline since January 2007. The 14-day relative strength of the euro versus the dollar indicated the greenback's gains may have been too fast to be sustained.

``The bulk of the swift downward move in the euro-dollar is behind us,'' said Todd Elmer, currency strategist at Citigroup Global Markets in New York.

The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.4885 at 10:17 a.m. in New York, from $1.4919 yesterday. It depreciated to $1.4816 two days ago, the weakest level since Feb. 26. The euro was at 163 yen, compared with 163.43 yesterday, when it reached a three-month low of 161.40. The dollar traded at 109.52 yen, compared with 109.53.

The euro's 14-day relative strength index against the dollar was at 20.8 today. A reading below 30 typically signals a change in price direction is imminent.

The pound was little changed at $1.8717 after touching $1.8619, the lowest level in 22 months against the dollar. The Bank of England cut its economic-growth forecast yesterday, signaling it may reduce interest rates.

Pound Versus Yen

Sterling may extend its decline to 192.48 yen after the currency dropped below so-called support of 211.25 yen, said New York-based Citigroup analyst Tom Fitzpatrick and London colleague Shyam Devani, who use charts to predict currency movements, in a research note yesterday. The pound was little changed at 204.91 yen today. A support level is where buy orders are concentrated.

Traders have reduced bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates a second time this year. The implied yield on the December Euribor futures contract was at 4.95 percent today, compared with 5.04 percent at the end of July.

Europe's gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent in the second quarter, after growing 0.7 percent in the first three months of the year, the European Union's statistics office said today in Luxembourg. The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted for the first time in almost four years, the Federal Statistics Office said in Wiesbaden.

``We expect the euro zone to move into an outright recession,'' said Ian Stannard, a London-based currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA. ``We see a multi-year euro downtrend now developing. And data we are getting is consistent with that view.''

U.S. Jobless Claims

More Americans than forecast filed initial claims for jobless benefits last week, signaling further weakness in the labor market. The number of first-time applications decreased to 450,000 in the week ended Aug. 9, from a revised 460,000 the prior week that was higher than previously estimated. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a drop to 435,000 from a previously reported 455,000.

Bank repossessions in the U.S. almost tripled in July, and foreclosure filings increased 55 percent from a year earlier as falling prices cut homeowner equity, said RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of foreclosure data.

The yen may rise against the dollar on speculation Japanese investors will repatriate some of their earnings on investments in U.S. Treasuries, traders said. The U.S. will pay $38.8 billion in principal and coupons on government debt tomorrow. Japan is the largest foreign owner of Treasuries, according to U.S. government data.

Japanese Bondholders

Japanese investors sold 461.3 billion yen ($4.2 billion) more overseas bonds and notes than they bought last week, the second week of sales and the most since the period ended April 18, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo.

``There's a great chance that the yen will appreciate,'' said Akira Takei, general manager in Tokyo for international bonds at Mizuho Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $37.3 billion. ``People want to avoid risks. Repatriation will play some part in yen strength as there is some comfort in holding funds in your own currency.''

forex news

2008-08-13T07:05:00.000+07:00

Dollar Snaps Five-Day Rally Versus Euro on Bets Gains Excessive

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar snapped a five-day winning streak against the euro on speculation the currency's recent gains are too fast to be sustained.

The greenback has rallied 4.3 percent versus the euro this month on speculation the U.S. economic slowdown is spreading to Europe and as commodity prices have tumbled. The ruble rose the most in seven years against the dollar as Russia called off military operations in Georgia.

``The dollar's rally was overextended,'' said Steve Butler, director of foreign-exchange trading at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. ``It has been such a one-way street.''

Against the euro, the dollar traded at $1.4910 at 11 a.m. in New York, compared with $1.4909 yesterday. It touched $1.4816, the strongest since Feb. 26. The dollar decreased 0.3 percent to 109.75 yen, from 110.06 yesterday, when it touched the seven-month high of 110.40. The euro fell 0.2 percent to 163.77 yen after touching 163.26, the lowest since June 5.

The euro has dropped 7 percent against the dollar since reaching the all-time high of $1.6038 on July 15. The 14-day relative strength index of the euro against the dollar was 22.40 today. A reading below 30 suggests a change in price direction is imminent.

The ruble was one of the biggest gainers versus the dollar after President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt to its offensive in Georgia, saying the military had achieved its goal. Russia's currency rose as much as 1.2 percent to 24.1447 per dollar, its biggest jump since Jan. 4, 2001. Against the euro, the ruble rose as much 1.4 percent, the steepest gain since 2005.

The currency dropped 2.3 percent against the dollar on Aug. 8 after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said war with Georgia had started.

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index, which gauges the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, was little changed at 76.135. It touched 76.616, the highest level since Feb. 12. The index rose 1.7 percent on Aug. 8, the biggest jump in six years.

``It's just time for a bit of correction,'' said MatthewKassel

, director of proprietary trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``The dollar's rally is exhausted.''

The dollar surged 2.1 percent against the euro on Aug. 8, the biggest one-day gain since January 2001.

The yield on three-month Euribor contract for June decreased 0.05 percentage point to 4.48 percent today, indicating investors bet the European Central Bank may lower its main refinancing rate from a seven-year high of 4.25 percent by the second quarter of 2009.

Germany's Economy

Germany's economy, the largest in the 15-nation region that uses the euro, probably contracted in the second quarter for the first time in almost four years, according to the median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government is due to report the data on Aug. 14.

In Japan, a report tomorrow may show gross domestic product shrank at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the three months ended June 30, following 4 percent growth in the previous quarter, according to a separate Bloomberg News survey.

``The market has become less bearish about the U.S. and, comparatively speaking, much more bearish about what's going on in the rest of the world,'' said Mike Moran, a senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

forex news

2008-08-12T06:47:00.000+07:00

Euro Little Changed as ECB Official Cites Risk of Inflation

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The euro was little changed against the dollar after a European Central Bank policy maker said the bank remains focused on inflation and traders judged last week's 3.6 percent drop to be excessive.

ECB council member Klaus Liebscher said policy makers remain focused on the ``worrying'' level of inflation, Market News reported today, citing an interview. The Russian ruble declined to the lowest level against the dollar since February as armed clashes between Russia and Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia deterred investors from holding the currency.

``Inflation remains a threat, and the ECB will keep reminding the market of that,'' said Adam Cole, the head of global currency strategy in London at RBC Capital Markets.

The euro traded at $1.4990 at 10:19 a.m. in New York, compared with $1.5005 on Aug. 8. It touched $1.4907, the lowest level since Feb. 26. The 15-nation euro dropped 0.3 percent to 164.87 yen, from 165.38 at the end of last week. It reached 163.65 yen, the weakest level since June 5. The dollar declined 0.2 percent to 109.98 yen, from 110.18.

The 14-day relative strength index of the euro versus the dollar fell to 21.82, the lowest since the European currency's 1999 debut. A relative strength index level below 30 suggests a currency's decline is extreme and a reversal may be imminent.

Russia's ruble fell as much as 1.6 percent to 24.618 per dollar, the weakest since Feb. 20, after Russia stepped up its bombing of Georgia, rejecting a proposed cease-fire agreed upon by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. Against the euro, it declined 0.5 percent to 36.537.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss franc rose against most of the major currencies as concern the conflict will escalate prompted investors to seek a haven. The franc rose 0.3 percent to 1.6192 against the euro and advanced 0.3 percent to 1.0794 versus the dollar.

Liebscher said the ECB was right to raise interest rates in July and price risks haven't waned in recent weeks and months, although the decline in oil prices is a ``relief'' and ``welcome,'' Market News reported. The extent of the weakening in economic data ``is only a limited surprise,'' he was quoted as saying.

``There is of course no bias for the future, and there is no pre-commitment, but what really has to be done in the future depends on the data available,'' said Liebscher, according to Market News. ``For us it's not either-or, growth or price stability. It is price stability. We have to do at a given moment of time what is necessary.''

ECB Rate Outlook

Traders raised bets that the ECB will lift rates this year after leaving the main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent last week. The implied yield on December interest-rate futures, an indicator of interest rate expectations, increased 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, from Aug. 8, to 4.95 percent.

The European single currency sank the most in almost eight years against the dollar on Aug. 8 as traders pared bets the ECB will raise interest rates as the economy slows. The weekly decline was the most since January 2005.

A government report showed French industrial production dropped 0.4 percent in June, the National Statistics Office in Paris. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had predicted an increase of 0.6 percent.

Moody's Investors Service said defaults on loans included in European commercial mortgage-backed securities rose 80 percent in the second quarter, sparking concern the financial turmoil in the region is deepening.

`Weaker Growth'

``We clearly have weaker growth outside the U.S.,'' said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``With the rest of the world's growth momentum declining, clearly that's enough for the dollar to sustainably gain ground in relative terms.''

Negative economic news in the U.S. may not be over, according to Sophia Drossos, a strategist in New York at Morgan Stanley.

``I would not chase the dollar's strength versus the euro as the pair has moved beyond interest-rate support,'' said Drossos. ``The dollar is not out of the woods. It will take the market a while to come around to our point of view.''

Sales at U.S. retailers fell 0.1 percent in July after rising 0.1 percent in the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The Commerce Department will release the data on Aug. 13.

China's yuan weakened as much as 0.1 percent to 6.8663 per dollar, a six-week low. The yuan's 18 percent appreciation against the dollar over the past three years is grinding to a halt as government officials said supporting growth is as important as fighting inflation.

The People's Bank of China has kept the yuan little changed since June, after gains of 4.1 percent in the first quarter and 2.3 percent in the second. That raised speculation that currency policy will be adjusted to bolster exports as the trade surplus shrinks. Legg Mason Inc.'s Western Asset Management Co. is trimming bets on the yuan after it rose in July by the smallest amount in a year.

Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate

2008-08-09T06:46:00.001+07:00

Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate

Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell the most in almost eight years against the dollar as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows.

The euro is poised for its biggest weekly loss since January 2005 after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday said economic growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter. An index that tracks the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners touched the highest since February. Crude oil fell to a three-month low.

``This is the beginning of a new chapter for the dollar as Trichet and other central banks are paying more attention to the downside risk to growth,'' said Dustin Reid, a senior currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Chicago. ``The decline of oil prices is a significant driver behind this dollar rally because it enables other central banks to turn their eyes away from inflation and focus on growth.''

The euro declined 1.95 percent to $1.5032 at 10:23 a.m. in New York and reached $1.5005, the lowest level since Feb. 27, from $1.5325 yesterday. It dropped as much as 2.08 percent, the biggest one-day drop since Sept. 6, 2000. Against the yen, the European currency traded at 165.84, from 167.70. The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 109.97 yen after touching 110.08, the strongest since Jan. 10.

Moving Average

The euro's decline below $1.53 and the break of the 200-day moving average at $1.5226 ``marks a significant change in sentiment for the dollar,'' pointing to a further decline to $1.46, Kevin Edgeley, a London-based technical analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a report today.

The euro has declined 3.1 percent against the dollar in its fourth weekly decline, the worst losing streak since May 2007. Against the yen, the U.S. currency has advanced 2.1 percent, heading for its biggest weekly gain in almost two months.

``The most important aspect of the dramatic collapse in the euro dollar is the absence of confirmation from other markets,'' said David Woo, global head of currency strategy at Barclays Capital Inc. in London. ``None of the typical drivers of the euro-dollar in the past couple of years could have accounted for the magnitude of this move, which leads one to conclude that this is a technical driven move.''

The South African rand led losses among the most-traded currencies as the prices of gold and platinum dropped, reducing prospects for export earnings from the country's biggest exports. The greenback rose to a six-month high against the Australian dollar, and advanced to the highest since September against the New Zealand dollar on speculation the central banks will cut borrowing costs.

Russia's Ruble

The Russian ruble fell by the most in 2 1/2 years against a dollar-euro basket used by the government after Georgia's Interior Ministry said four Russian fighter-jets entered Georgian airspace and bombed the towns of Gori and Kareli, boosting the risk of war. The ruble dropped as much as 0.8 percent against the basket.

The pound fell below $1.93 for the first time since March 2007 as the Bank of England kept its main interest rate steady at 5 percent yesterday after inflation accelerated and the economy teetered on the brink of a recession. It has dropped 2.7 percent this week to $1.9210, its biggest weekly drop in three years.

The Dollar Index on the ICE futures exchange reached 75.713 today, the highest since Feb. 21.

`No Bias'

Trichet said yesterday he has ``no bias'' or ``pre- commitment'' toward future rate movements after the central bank left the main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent. He told reporters in Frankfurt that while inflation remains a threat, risks to economic growth are ``materializing.''

European retail sales dropped by the most in at least 13 years in June, the European Union said on Aug. 5. Consumer confidence slid in July by the most since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the European Commission said July 30.

Traders pared bets the ECB will lift rates a second time this year after increasing its main rate by a quarter-point last month. The implied yield on the December interest rate futures, an indication of expectations, retreated 2 basis pointsto 4.94 percent today.

The New Zealand dollar slumped as much as 2.2 percent to 69.84 U.S. cents, the biggest loss in two months. Australia's dollar dropped 1.7 percent, falling for a fourth day, to 89.10 U.S. cents, from 90.66 cents yesterday. The Reserve Bank of Australia said it may lower borrowing costs, after keeping its benchmark interest rate at a 12-year high of 7.25 percent this week.

Oil, Metals, Crops

Crude oil, metal and crop prices fell as the dollar climbed, reducing the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge. Oil has declined to $118.15 a barrel since touching the record of 147.27 on July 11.

The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep.

``Oil prices have turned out to be much more supportive of the dollar than I expected,'' said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan's largest currency broker. ``It does temporarily relieve some concern that the U.S. economy will weaken further. This is a plus for sentiment.''

Dollar Falls as GDP Trails Forecast, Jobless Claims Increase

2008-08-01T07:10:00.000+07:00

Dollar Falls as GDP Trails Forecast, Jobless Claims Increase

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for the first time in three days against the euro as reports showed the U.S. economy grew less than forecast in the second quarter and initial jobless claims rose last week to a five-year high.

The euro advanced earlier against the dollar as European inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 16 years. The pound dropped against the euro after reports showed British consumer confidence declined this month to a record low and house prices fell the most in almost two decades.

``The economic backdrop is far less robust than people thought,'' said Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``Today's numbers provide a platform to send the euro-dollar to new highs.''

The dollar dropped 0.4 percent to $1.5641 per euro at 10:33 a.m. in New York, from $1.5576 yesterday. The U.S. currency declined to the record low of $1.6038 on July 15. The euro increased 0.2 percent to 168.71 yen, from 168.41. The U.S. currency dropped 0.3 percent to 107.85 yen, from 108.13.

Today's decline pared the greenback's gain versus the euro this month to 0.8 percent. The dollar has advanced 1.6 percent against the yen, while the euro has gained 0.9 percent versus Japan's currency.

Sterling declined 0.2 pence to 78.73 pence per euro today after the London-based market-research firm GfK NOP said its index of consumer confidence fell to the lowest since the data began in 1974. The average value of a home dropped 8.1 percent from a year earlier, the biggest decline since at least 1991, said Nationwide Building Society, Britain's fourth-biggest mortgage lender.

Fed Rate Outlook

Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 32 percent chance of the Fed raising its 2 percent target rate for overnight loans between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by Sept. 16, down from 38 percent odds yesterday. Most traders expect policy makers to keep borrowing costs unchanged when they next meet Aug. 5.

U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the second quarter after revised 0.9 percent growth in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department reported today. The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an advance of 2.3 percent.

Initial jobless claims rose to 448,000 in the week ended July 26, from a revised 404,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had forecast a drop in claims. The total number of initial filings last week was the highest since April 2003.

Company Hiring

The U.S. currency touched a one-month high against the euro yesterday after a private report showed companies unexpectedly added jobs this month.

``The dollar's rally was built on a shaky foundation,'' said Stephen Malyon, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. ``Today's numbers just highlighted there's more downside risk to growth. The jump in jobless claims puts a brake on the dollar's rally.''

Non-farm payrolls dropped by 75,000 this month following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to the median forecast 0f 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department's report, which includes government hiring, is due tomorrow.

The euro strengthened versus the dollar as the European Union statistics office reported that the euro zone's inflation rate rose to 4.1 percent this month, the biggest increase since April 1992. The European Central Bank raised its main refinancing rate to 4.25 percent on July 3, the highest level since 2001.

European Inflation

``We're going to see inflation moving further to the upside,'' said Jeremy Stretch, a senior strategist in London at Rabobank International, the third-largest Dutch bank. ``That might just lead the market to think that even with the downturn in economic data, the ECB might turn toward tighter monetary policy. That's providing a little support for the euro.''

South Africa's rand rose as much as 0.9 percent to 7.3291 versus the dollar, the strongest since Feb. 4, after a report showed the country's trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in June. The rand has increased 6.2 percent this month for the best performance among the world's major currencies.

Turkey's lira advanced to a six-month high after the Constitutional Court rejected yesterday a call by prosecutors to ban the party of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is seeking to introduce Islamic law in secular Turkey. The lira climbed as much as 2.4 percent to 1.1555 per dollar, its strongest since Jan. 15. It has gained 5.4 percent versus the dollar this month.

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

2008-07-31T06:26:00.000+07:00

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

€

The euro extended yesterday’s losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5520 level and was capped around the $1.5615 level. The common currency reached its lowest level since 24 June as traders continued to price in the likelihood of a further slowdown in the eurozone economy. Traders also increased their exposure to the U.S. dollar after ADP private sector jobs unexpectedly increased 9,000 in July, defying expectations of a sizable decline. Some economists are upwardly revising their forecasts for the July non-farm payrolls report that will be released on Friday. In other U.S. news, the Federal Reserve announced actions to enhance its existing liquidity facilities including an extension of the Fed’s Primary Dealer Credit Facility and Term Securities Lending Facility through 30 January 2009. The Fed noted there remains “continued fragile circumstances in financial markets” and the Fed will also launch an 84-day Term Auction Facility from 11 August, complementing the 28-day facility it already offers. The European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank reported they are planning to extend the maturity of their liquidity operations, essentially availing U.S. dollars to European banks over a longer period of time. In eurozone news, EMU-15 July economic sentiment fell to 89.5, its worst level in more than five years. Some traders believe the ECB will reduce its assessment on economic growth at next week’s Governing Council meeting. Banco de Espana reported the eurozone faces higher upside inflation risks. Other data saw German June new machinery, plant orders off 5.0% y/y while EMU-15 retail PMI improved to 46. Euro bids are cited around the $1.5585/ 1.5230 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥108.35 level and was supported around the ¥107.70 level. The pair reached its highest level since 25 June as traders continued to speculate the Japanese economy will weaken further. Most traders believe Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50% for the foreseeable future. Data released in Japan overnight saw June industrial output fall 2.0% m/m, worse-than-expected, and was up 0.2% y/y. Traders are waiting for this week’s likely cabinet shuffle by Prime Minister Fukuda to see if decision-makers at the finance and economy ministries are replaced. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.58% to close at ¥13,367.79. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥106.40 level. The euro came off vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥167.95 level and was capped around the ¥168.60 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥214.35 level while the Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥102.85 level. The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8272 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8264.

₤

The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9845 level and was supported around the $1.9745 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just below the 23.6% retracement of the move from $2.1160 to $1.9335. Traders are awaiting details of a possible government-sponsored program to swap mortgage assets for gilts. Cable bids are cited around the $1.9360 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7850 level and was capped around the ₤0.7875 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0520 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0440 level. The pair traded at its highest level since 13 June. Data released in Switzerland today saw the KOF leading economic barometer fall to 0.9 in July from a revised 0.99 in June, its lowest level in give years. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0515/ 1.0625 levels. The euro and British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6335 and CHF 2.0785 levels, respectively.

Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.5541 1.5615, 1.5521
USD/ JPY 108.25 108.33, 107.68
GBP/ USD 1.9770 1.9843, 1.9745
USD/ CHF 1.0505 1.0520, 1.0439
AUD/ USD 0.9423 0.9527, 0.9410
USD/CAD 1.0258 1.0268, 1.0218
NZD/USD 0.7325 0.7400, 0.7314
EUR/ JPY 168.25 168.61, 167.94
EUR/ GBP 0.7861 0.7878, 0.7857
EUR/ CHF 1.6328 1.6333, 1.6285
GBP/ JPY 214.00 214.18, 213.24
CHF/ JPY 103.00 103.40, 102.87

Dollar Advances to One-Month High as U.S. Companies Add Jobs

2008-07-31T06:18:00.000+07:00

Dollar Advances to One-Month High as U.S. Companies Add Jobs

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to a one-month high versus the euro and the yen after a private report showed U.S. companies unexpectedly added jobs this month.

The greenback also gained as a decline in crude oil eased concern elevated fuel costs will erode consumer spending. New Zealand's dollar dropped against all of the other major currencies except the Australian dollar after Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said slowing economic growth will curb inflation in the next two years.

``It's premature to say employment destruction has hit bottom, but today is a good sign,'' said Mike Moran, a senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered in New York. ``In conjunction with a pullback in oil prices recently, it certainly contributed to the dollar's recovery.''

The dollar increased 0.4 percent to $1.5524 per euro at 9:49 a.m. in New York, from $1.5588 yesterday. It touched $1.5522, the strongest level since June 24. It may advance to $1.5460, Moran said. The U.S. currency rose 0.2 percent to 108.30 yen, from 108.11. It touched 108.33, the highest since June 25. The euro fell 0.2 percent to 168.14 yen, from 168.53.

The Australian dollar declined 1 percent to 94.32 U.S. cents after a government report showed home-building approvals unexpectedly dropped in June for a second month. The Aussie decreased 0.9 percent to 102.08 yen.

Weaker Kiwi

New Zealand's dollar fell to a 10-month low against its U.S. counterpart after Bollard said in a speech in Auckland that ``weakness in the economy will be sufficient to bring inflation and inflation expectations down over the medium term.'' The kiwi dropped 1.1 percent to 73.23 U.S. cents after touching 73.16, the lowest level since Sept. 25.

The U.S. dollar strengthened versus the euro as ADP Employer Services reported that companies added 9,000 jobs in July after cutting a revised 77,000 positions in the previous month. The median forecast of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reduction of 60,000 jobs.

Non-farm payrolls dropped by 75,000 this month following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to the median forecast in a separate Bloomberg survey. The Labor Department is scheduled to release its report Aug. 1.

Crude oil fell for a second day, declining as much as 0.8 percent to $121.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It has dropped 17 percent from the record of $147.27 set on July 11. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the correlation of their value changes. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep.

`Starts to Align'

``Everything starts to align for the dollar,'' said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. ``There's optimism that we're starting to see some stabilization in the U.S. economy. A slowing global economy will likely reduce global demand for commodities. It's another positive for the dollar.''

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, reached 73.493, the highest level since June 24.

The U.S. currency may rise further versus the yen as Japanese investors invest their summer bonuses in overseas assets offering higher yields, according to Daisaku Ueno, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Nomura Securities Co., Japan's largest brokerage.

`Individual Money'

``Emerging markets are constantly attracting Japanese individual money,'' said Ueno. Japan's currency may weaken to 110 per dollar by year-end, he said.

Employees at private companies were paid summer bonuses in June and July totaling 14.8 trillion yen, according to Kazuyoshi Nakata, an economist in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting Co., a unit of Japan's largest publicly traded lender.

HSBC Investments will seek to raise 50 billion yen for a fund focused on Brazil's stocks tomorrow, while Nomura Asset Management will seek 60 billion yen for global stocks Aug. 1. Brazil's Bovespa Index, measured in yen, advanced 16 percent over the past 12 months, according to Bloomberg calculations. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 23 percent.

The Bank of Japan's target lending rate of 0.5 percent is the lowest among industrialized economies, making overseas assets more attractive to domestic investors.

Implied volatility on one-month dollar-yen options fell to 10.06 percent, from 10.73 percent a week earlier. Lower volatility may encourage carry trades, in which investors borrow in countries with low interest rates and buy assets where returns are higher.

Dollar Rises to One-Month High as Confidence Rises, Oil Falls

2008-07-30T06:15:00.001+07:00

Dollar Rises to One-Month High as Confidence Rises, Oil Falls

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar advanced to a one-month high versus the euro and the yen as U.S. consumer confidence increased and crude oil prices dropped, reducing concern the economy may fall into a recession.

The currency rose against the yen and New Zealand's dollar as unemployment climbed in Japan last month and home building permits fell to the lowest in almost 22 years in New Zealand. The pound fell versus the dollar after an index of U.K. retail sales dropped in July to a 25-year low.

``A lot of bad news has been priced in,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut.

The dollar increased 0.8 percent to $1.5616 per euro at 10:28 a.m. in New York, from $1.5741 yesterday. It touched $1.5596, the strongest level since June 25. The U.S. currency appreciated 0.7 percent to 108.18 yen, from 107.46, and reached 108.29, the highest since June 25. The euro traded at 169.13 yen, compared with 169.17.

Sterling weakened 0.6 percent to $1.9813 after the Confederation of British Industry said its survey of 82 retailers showed 25 percent sold more goods than a year earlier and 61 percent sold fewer. The net rounded balance of minus 36 percentage points was the lowest since the survey began in 1983.

Weaker Yen

The yen declined earlier against the dollar after government reports showed Japan's unemployment rate rose in June to 4.1 percent, the highest level in almost two years, and household spending fell, adding to signs the economy's longest postwar expansion may be ending.

The New Zealand dollar fell against all of the other major currencies after a report showed home building approvals decreased 20 percent in June to 1,337, the lowest since October 1986. The kiwi declined 1.2 percent to 73.66 U.S. cents.

``At this stage, bad news in the U.S. will be translated to bad news elsewhere,'' Ruskin said. ``It provides some cushion to the dollar.''

In France, a gauge of consumer sentiment dropped in July to minus 48, the lowest level since the index was introduced in 1987, from minus 46 in June, according to Insee, the national statistics office in Paris.

``The euro-zone economy's outlook has really become more bleak,'' said Jan Lambregts, head of Asia research at Rabobank International in Hong Kong. ``Ultimately, that means the upside for the euro-dollar is becoming more capped.'' The euro will decline to $1.55 by year-end, Rabobank forecasts.

European Outlook

Traders reduced bets the ECB will raise its 4.25 percent main refinancing rate this year. The implied yield on the December Euribor futures contract dropped to 5.09 percent, from 5.12 percent yesterday.

The Conference Board's confidence index rose this month to 51.9, higher than forecast, from a revised 51 in June. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index increased 1.2 percent, after falling 1.9 percent yesterday.

Crude oil for September delivery dropped as much as 1.5 percent to $122.92 a barrel. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have moved in the same direction 90 percent of the time during the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the correlation of their value changes.

China

's yuan advanced after central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan underscored policy ``continuity,'' spurring speculation China will let the currency rise further to stem inflation. The yuan climbed 0.1 percent to 6.8256 per dollar.

Dollar Falls Against Euro, Yen on Credit Losses, Oil Increase

2008-07-29T09:07:00.000+07:00

Dollar Falls Against Euro, Yen on Credit Losses, Oil Increase

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar declined from near a three-week high against the euro and the strongest in a month versus the yen on concern U.S. financial losses will widen and as crude-oil prices increased.

The currency dropped for a second day against the euro after Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Gary Stern told the Financial Times the U.S. credit crunch will get worse. The pound fell against all of the other major currencies as U.K. house values dropped in July the most in at least seven years.

``The financial sector is far from being healthy,'' said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. ``The Fed won't be able to raise rates any time soon given what's happening in the credit market. It's very difficult for the dollar to have a sustained rally.''

The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.5758 per euro at 8:41 a.m. in New York, from $1.5709 on July 25. It touched $1.5629 on July 24, the strongest since July 7. The dollar will trade in a range of $1.5650 to $1.5950 in the next few weeks, Serebriakov said. The U.S. currency dropped 0.2 percent to 107.61 yen, from 107.84, after earlier reaching 108.07, the highest since June 26. The euro traded at 169.55 yen, compared with 169.40. It touched the all-time high of 169.96 on July 23.

The pound decreased 0.2 percent to $1.9868 after Hometrack Ltd., a London-based research company, said U.K. house values dropped in July 4.4 percent from a year earlier. That's the biggest annual drop since the index started in 2001. Sterling weakened 0.5 percent to 79.24 pence per euro.

Chinese Yuan

The Chinese yuan fell 0.2 percent to 6.8345 per dollar after the Communist Party's Politburo said on July 25 that growth and inflation are both priorities, fueling speculation that the government will curb currency appreciation to aid exporters. The yuan has strengthened 7 percent this year, the most among Asia's 10 most-traded currencies outside Japan.

The Australian dollar traded at 95.63 U.S. cents after touching 95.28 cents, the lowest in almost three months. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., the nation's fourth- biggest bank by market value, joined National Australia Bank Ltd., the largest in terms of assets, in warning of increased provisions for non-performing loans.

Six months after correctly identifying Australia's dollar as one of the best bets in the foreign-exchange market, Daiwa Asset Management Co., the biggest investor in the nation's debt, predicts that the rally is coming to an end. Daiwa, which holds 4 percent of the government's bonds, expects the currency to close the year at $1.

Price Index

The credit crunch is likely to last for months and may deteriorate further, Stern said in an interview with the Financial Times. Financial firms have reported $467.9 billion in losses and writedowns since the start of 2007.

U.S. home prices in the S&P/Case-Shiller index fell 16 percent in May from a year ago, the most on record, according to the median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due tomorrow. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 75,000 in July, following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to a separate survey. The Labor Department will release the employment data on Aug. 1.

``Data on housing and payrolls pose downside risks to the dollar,'' said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. ``Given the state of the housing market, you can't be overly optimistic on the U.S. economy. That makes it almost impossible for the Fed to raise rates.'' The dollar may fall to 106 yen this week, he said.

Fed Rate Outlook

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 93 percent chance the Fed will keep borrowing costs on hold at 2 percent when it announces its next decision on Aug. 5, up from 64 percent odds a month ago.

Consumer confidence in Germany dropped to the lowest in more than five years as soaring energy prices sapped purchasing power. GfK AG's index for August, based on a survey of about 2,000 people, declined to 2.1, the lowest since June 2003, from a revised 3.6 in July, the Nuremberg-based market-research company said in a statement today.

``The European economy is facing a major setback,'' wrote Tomoko Fujii, head of Japan economics and strategy at Bank of America in Tokyo, in a research note today. ``The markets cannot price in an ECB rate hike anymore. We are recommending euro- selling against the dollar.'' The 15-nation currency may fall to $1.54 against the dollar by the end of September, she said.

Crude oil for September delivery gained as much as $1.96 to $125.22 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has tumbled about $23 a barrel from the record $147.27 a reached on July 11.

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar Analisa

2008-07-23T06:12:00.002+07:00

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

Short term (Intraday)

1,5882. EUR USD is in a range between 1,5800 and 1,5950. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should continue to move in 1,5800 / 1,5950 range. We won't take a position.

Resistances: 1,5910 - 1,5950
Supports: 1,5870 - 1,5800
Long term chart: EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

updated 22 juli 2008 13:29 GMT

Dollar Advances as Paulson Stresses Support for U.S. Currency

2008-07-23T06:10:00.000+07:00

Dollar Advances as Paulson Stresses Support for U.S. Currency

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose the most against the euro in almost a week as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson voiced support for the currency and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president said interest rates should be raised.

The greenback extended its gain after breaking $1.59, where orders to sell the euro were clustered, and increased further as crude oil prices fell, traders said. The Canadian dollar dropped against all of the other major currencies as a report showed domestic retail sales rose in May less than economists forecast.

``The feeling is that we're at a turning point and things are going to get better from here in the financial sector,'' said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. Paulson's comments ``helped the market get over the mass hysteria about Fannie and Freddie.''

The dollar increased 0.4 percent to $1.5851 per euro at 10:28 a.m. in New York, from $1.5922 yesterday. It fell to $1.6038 on July 15, the weakest since the European currency's 1999 debut. The dollar advanced 0.4 percent to 106.86 yen, from 106.45. The yen was little changed at 169.40 per euro, compared with 169.48, after falling to a record of 169.91 yesterday.

South Africa's rand was the biggest gainer versus the dollar among the world's major currencies as gold prices increased and platinum advanced for the first time in seven days. South Africa produces about 10 percent of the world's gold and almost 80 percent of its platinum. The rand increased 0.4 percent to 7.5378 versus the dollar.

Canadian Dollar

Canada's dollar fell for the first time in three days against its U.S. counterpart, dropping 0.6 percent to C$1.0055 per U.S. dollar. Retail sales rose 0.4 percent in May to C$35.8 billion ($35.7 billion), Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an increase of 0.6 percent.

The U.S. dollar strengthened today as Paulson said in a speech in New York that he's ``confident'' that lawmakers will pass the bill to ``boost confidence'' in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of U.S. mortgage financing. He reiterated that a strong dollar is ``really very important.''

The dollar touched the record low earlier this month on concern Fannie and Freddie, which own or guarantee almost half of the $12 trillion in U.S. home loans outstanding, may fail to survive the housing slump.

Plosser on Rates

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said in a speech today in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, that the U.S. central bank should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later.'' He argued against reductions in two Fed decisions this year.

Two-year U.S. Treasury yields rose 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 2.66 percent. The yield advantage of comparable-maturity German bunds narrowed to 191 basis points.

``Plosser's hawkish comments pushed Treasury yields higher,'' contributing to the dollar's turnaround, said Matthew Kassel, director of proprietary trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York.

Futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 7 percent chance the Fed will increase its 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point at its Aug. 5 meeting, compared with 40 percent odds a month ago.

The euro traded earlier near an all-time high versus the dollar as the Italian daily La Stampa reported that European Central Bank executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said the bank's main refinancing rate isn't ``exactly restrictive'' at 4.25 percent.

`Hawkish Noises'

``The ECB has continued to make hawkish noises, meaning the euro is going to be quite well-supported in the near term,'' said Ian Stannard, a London-based senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA. The dollar may still rebound to $1.50 by the end of the quarter, he said.

The euro may climb past 170 to an all-time high against the yen as the ECB raises rates a second time this year while the Bank of Japan leaves its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5 percent, according to Commerzbank AG.

``The Japanese yen has to bear the consequences from having been unable to benefit from falling equity markets over the last weeks,'' currency strategists at the firm led by Frankfurt-based Ulrich Leuchtmann wrote in a note to clients. ``On the backdrop of low key rates, which are unlikely to see any changes in the near future, the general environment will remain difficult for the Japanese currency.''

fOREX NEWS

2008-07-22T06:50:00.001+07:00

Dollar Is Little Changed After Bank of America Beats Forecasts

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar was little changed against the yen after Bank of America Corp. said profit declined less than analysts estimated.

The yen touched the all-time low against the euro as the largest U.S. consumer and home lender became the fourth of the nation's five biggest banks to post better-than-estimated results. The pound dropped versus the dollar and the euro as a report showed U.K. house prices fell in July for the first time since data began in 2002.

``The world looks a little more peaceful for the time being,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``But longer-term concerns about the U.S. economy haven't diminished.''

The dollar traded at 106.96 yen at 10:06 a.m. in New York, unchanged from July 18. The U.S. currency was at $1.5850 per euro, compared with $1.5847. The yen traded at 169.54 per euro, compared with 169.49, and touched 169.91, the weakest level since the European currency debuted in 1999.

Bank of America's net income fell to $3.41 billion, or 72 cents a share, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said today in a statement. The average estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 54 cents.

The bank added $2.2 billion to loan loss reserves. The world's biggest banks and brokerages have disclosed $447 billion of writedowns and losses because of a credit-market slump triggered by mortgage defaults.

JPMorgan & Chase Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. reported second-quarter results last week that exceeded analysts' estimates.

Weaker Pound

The pound dropped for a second day, depreciating 0.3 percent to $1.9940 and 79.46 pence per euro. Rightmove Plc, Britain's most-used property Web site, reported that the average asking price for a home fell an annual 2 percent to 235,219 pounds ($469,544). Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower told the Guardian newspaper that the British economy is entering a recession that may last more than a year and the bank must lower its 5 percent target lending rate.

``Given that the U.K. economy is going to grow below trend, why do we need tight policy in the U.K.?'' said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets in London. ``I would agree that the next move in U.K. rates will be downward and sterling will fall on the back of that.'' The pound may decline to $1.80 within a year, he said.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar rose as much as 0.7 percent to an eight-month high of 104.48 yen on speculation the nation will retain its interest-rate advantage over Japan. The difference in yield between two-year Australian and Japanese bonds widened to 5.85 percentage points, the most in a week. Australia's target lending rate of 7.25 percent compares with 0.5 percent in Japan.

South Korea's won dropped for a sixth day, decreasing 0.4 percent to 1,018.00 versus the dollar. A five-year rally in emerging-market currencies is coming to an end as central banks from South Korea to Turkey struggle to contain inflation, according to DWS Investments and Morgan Stanley.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed an 8 percent chance the Federal Reserve will increase its 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point at its Aug. 5 meeting, compared with 12 percent odds a week ago.

``The Fed has simply not been in a position to raise interest rates and fight inflation, so people have been shunning the dollar,'' said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist in London at Bank of New York Mellon Corp.

Stern on Rates

The U.S. central bank shouldn't wait for housing and financial markets to stabilize before raising rates, Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern said in an interview July 18.

``We're pretty well-positioned for the downside risks we might encounter from here,'' he said. ``I worry a little bit more about the prospects for inflation.''

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. declined to a 4.94 million annual pace in June, from 4.99 million the prior month, according to the median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The National Association of Realtors will release the report July 24.

A day later, the Commerce Department will say sales of new houses dropped to an annual pace of 503,000 from 512,000 in May, a separate survey shows. Sales of existing and new homes are down 35 percent from their July 2005 peak.

Leading economic indicators dropped 0.1 percent in June after a revised 0.2 percent decline the prior month, the Conference Board reported today. The decrease matched the median forecast of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Currency trading volume today may be about 75 percent of normal levels because of a public holiday in Japan, said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia's fourth-biggest lender.

Forex News

2008-07-22T06:21:00.001+07:00

7/21/2008 3:00 PM: EUR/$..1.5888 $/JPY..106.73 GBP/$..1.9982 $/CHF..1.0209 AUD/$..0.9753 $/CAD..1.0010

FX Listless, Awaits Data by Korman Tam

The trading week kicked off to a quiet start with the Japanese market away on holiday and a dearth of fresh economic news for traders to digest. Moving the markets today was a better-than-forecast Q2 earnings report from Bank of America, which, combined with the earnings reports from last week, instills renewed confidence in the financial sector. Although earnings plunged by 41% to $0.72 per share, it exceeded consensus estimates for $0.53 per share, prompting currency traders to push the euro/yen pair to a new record high at 169.89.

The economic calendar from the US consists of the Richmond Fed survey, weekly jobless claims, June existing home sales, building permits, durable goods orders, July University of Michigan consumer confidence, and June home sales. The data will highlight the current hurdles impeding the economy with further declines expected in both the housing market and consumer sentiment. Fears of rapid deterioration in the financial sector have subsided somewhat following recent better-than-expected earnings reports from banks. Nonetheless, the Fed has revealed increased concern over the outlook of the economy, tempering market sentiment for an FOMC rate hike in the coming months.

Today Forex News

2008-07-16T06:46:00.000+07:00

Dollar Weakens as Bernanke Cites Growth Risk, Inflation Danger

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped against the euro as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told a Senate committee that growth and inflation risks have both increased.

The currency weakened the most against the yen since the March collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. as Bernanke said helping financial markets return to more normal functioning remains ``a top priority.'' The dollar earlier touched a record low versus the euro on concern confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will diminish even after the U.S. government pledged support.

``It's hard to find anything dollar positive in the statement,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``Bernanke clearly acknowledged more growth risks than he anticipated a few weeks ago. The problem is coming from the financial sector.''

The dollar declined 0.4 percent to $1.5976 per euro at 10:25 a.m. in New York, from $1.5908 yesterday, and touched $1.6038, the weakest level since the 15-nation currency's debut in 1999. The U.S. currency fell 1.7 percent to 104.35 yen, from 106.14 yesterday. Japan's currency increased 1.3 percent to 166.74 per euro, from 168.89 yesterday, when it weakened to the all-time low of 169.75.

The U.S. currency has given up all the gains made versus the euro since July 3, when European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he has ``no bias'' on future interest- rate moves.

The dollar strengthened 0.6 percent to $1.5706 per euro that week. It has since slumped almost 2 percent on concern Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which buy or finance almost half the $12 trillion of U.S. mortgages, will need a government rescue.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, fell for a fifth day on the ICE market, dropping as much as 0.8 percent to 71.314, the lowest level since April 23, from 71.915.

Dollar News

2008-07-15T19:16:00.000+07:00

Gross Likes Dollar More Than Euro for 1st Time on EU

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- For three years euro bulls used the prospect of higher interest rates in Europe to justify the currency's 32 percent rally against the dollar. No more.

A growing number of the world's biggest investors say a slowdown in the region's economy may be more severe than in the U.S., forcing the European Central Bank to reverse this month's rate increase. By January, the euro will be lower against the dollar, yen and even the pound, according to the median estimate of strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, turned bearish on the euro for the first time since the currency's inception in 1999.

``We might have hit a point where the euro doesn't have a lot to stand on,'' said Emanuele Ravano, co-head of European strategy in London for Gross's Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the $129 billion Pimco Total Return Fund. ``The euro is ultimately very overvalued. It could be quite a bit lower at some point in time over the next couple of years.''

The euro fell as much as 1.7 percent to $1.5611 in the week following President Jean-Claude Trichet's comments on July 3 that he had ``no bias'' on further changes in borrowing costs after boosting the main refinancing rate to 4.25 percent from 4 percent. Before Trichet spoke the currency traded near a record high on speculation the ECB would signal more than one rate increase was needed to tame inflation. It fell 0.5 percent to $1.5857 as of noon in London today, from $1.5938 on July 11.

Hedge Funds Flee

As the odds that the ECB will lift rates dwindled, hedge funds sold the 15-nation common currency, according to Zurich- based UBS AG, the world's second-biggest currency trader behind Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt. New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, said it's ``increasingly confident'' the euro will fall.

``Capital flows look less supportive for the euro and, with the ECB out of the way, the interest-rate policy would also seem to support our view,'' Stephen Hull, a strategist for Lehman in London, wrote in a research note July 11.

The euro is 30 percent overvalued versus the dollar, based on purchasing power parity, according to Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. That's more than any other currency among the Group of 10 richest nations. Purchasing power parity accounts for differences in the exchange rates of national currencies.

``When a currency gets between 25 percent and 30 percent overvalued it tends'' to revert to the mean, said Ravano. The euro may drop to $1.535 from $1.5938 last week, he said.

Burger Test

The Economist's Big Mac Index, which compares prices for the McDonald's Corp. product globally, shows the hamburger is 22 percent more expensive in Europe than in the U.S.

``We're not far off the capitulation point for the euro,'' said Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign-exchange research in London at Calyon, the investment-banking unit of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest bank. The euro will fall to $1.52 by the end of the third quarter and to $1.45 by April 2009, he said.

The European single currency's gain since December 2005 was spurred by eight increases in the ECB's key refinancing rate.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy complained that the currency's strength was harming the competitiveness of European exporters and risked damaging economic growth. Exports from Germany, Europe's largest economy, declined 3.2 percent in May, the most in almost four years, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said July 9.

Gross domestic product in the 15 nations sharing the euro will slow to 1.4 percent in 2009, from 1.7 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 29 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The U.S. economy will grow 1.8 percent next year, from 1.5 percent this year, according to the median of 78 estimates.

`Sharp Slowing'

There are ``concrete signs of a sharp slowing of euro-zone growth,'' Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York, wrote in a note dated July 11. Investors should sell the euro against the dollar, he said.

It may be too soon to bet against the euro because the U.S. economy is also slowing, according to Derek Halpenny, head of currency research in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest bank by market value. The euro will rise to $1.62 by the end of the third quarter, before falling back to $1.58 in the final three months of the year, he said.

``We're bullish on the euro,'' Halpenny said. ``The real story over the next three months is going to be the obvious and continued downturn in the U.S. economy compared to Europe.''

The ECB will cut the key rate a quarter-percentage point to 4 percent by the end of June 2009, according to the median of 30 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The Federal Reserve has lowered its target rate for overnight loans seven times since September to 2 percent.

`Incredibly Bearish'

``The rally in the euro is over and we're now incredibly bearish on the currency given the outlook for Europe's economy,'' said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, the most accurate foreign-exchange forecaster in a 2007 Bloomberg survey.

The euro will slide to $1.50 by the end of the third quarter and $1.45 by year-end, he said. Redeker is more bearish than most strategists. The common European currency will weaken 5.4 percent to $1.50 by year-end, and slip to $1.45 by mid-2009, according to the median of 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

``At current levels the euro is an awfully expensive currency,'' said Stephen Jen, chief currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in London and a former Fed economist. ``We see fair value for the currency at around $1.30.''

DOLLAR NEWS

2008-07-11T07:20:00.000+07:00

Dollar Falls Versus Euro on Concern Financial Losses to Deepen

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro on concern losses at financial firms will deepen, prolonging the U.S. economic slowdown.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in prepared congressional testimony that he's been assured by the regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that the two companies have enough capital. The pound dropped versus the dollar and the euro as the Bank of England left its benchmark lending rate unchanged, increasing the risk of a recession.

``The heightened state of uncertainty is putting the dollar on the defensive,'' said Carl Forcheski, vice president on the corporate currency sales desk at Societe Generale SA in New York. ``The overhanging concern about the financial sector is dogging the market here.''

The dollar dropped 0.3 percent to $1.5782 per euro at 10:28 a.m. in New York, from $1.5743 yesterday. The U.S. currency traded at 106.84 yen, compared with 106.76. The euro appreciated 0.3 percent to 168.60 yen, from 168.06.

South Korea's won gained for a fourth day on speculation the government is intervening to halt the currency's decline to curb inflation. The Finance Ministry reiterated today that the government will tackle risks stemming from higher oil costs. The won rose 0.2 percent to 1,002.97 per dollar.

The British pound decreased 0.5 percent to $1.9726 after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 5 percent. Against the euro, sterling dropped 0.4 percent to 79.71 pence.

Weakened Dollar

The dollar has fallen 11 percent against the euro since September, when the Fed made the first of seven reductions in its target lending rate to avert a recession. Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show 86 percent odds that policy makers will keep borrowing costs unchanged next month.

Fannie and Freddie tumbled to the lowest level in 17 years in New York trading after former St. Louis Fed President William Poole said in an interview today that chances are increasing that the U.S. may need to bail out the companies.

The dollar fell against the euro yesterday after Fannie, the biggest provider of financing for U.S. home loans, paid a record yield relative to Treasuries on the sale of $3 billion in notes.

``There's a mixture of risk, which seems to be based in the U.S. in the special areas of finance, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,'' said Peter Frank, a currency strategist in London at Societe Generale SA, France's second-biggest bank by market value. ``We may see the dollar weakening again against a broad cluster of currencies.''

French Output

The euro weakened against the dollar earlier after reports showed French and Italian industrial production dropped in May more than economists forecast, raising concern European economic growth is slowing.

Output at French factories and utilities fell 2.6 percent from the previous month, the biggest decline since October 2005 the Paris-based statistics office said today. Italian production declined 1.4 percent from April, almost three times the drop forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The euro may rise to $1.5909 against the dollar should it stay above its five-day moving average, said Masashi Hashimoto, a senior currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

The average, currently $1.5715, will provide a level of so- called support for the euro, Tokyo-based Hashimoto said, citing technical charts traders use to predict price movements. The firm's target matches a two-month high set by the 15-nation currency on July 3. Support is an area at which buy orders may be clustered.

The Norwegian krone declined as much as 0.4 percent to 8.0833 per euro after a government report showed inflation accelerated in June less than economists forecast.

Dollar News

2008-07-09T06:55:00.001+07:00

Dollar May Extend Gain on Bernanke's Comment, Crude Oil Decline

By Ye Xie and Candice Zachariahs

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may rise against the euro for a second day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may extend its emergency-loan program for securities firms into next year and crude oil prices tumbled.

The U.S. currency advanced yesterday, erasing losses that came at the start of the week on concern Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest mortgage finance companies, may need to raise additional capital.

``Bernanke is telling the market that the Fed will be there if there's any problem,'' said Joe Trevisani, chief market analyst in Saddle River, New Jersey, at FX Solutions LLC, a foreign-exchange brokerage. ``The Fed has calmed down the markets. If oil continues to come down, the dollar may strengthen further.''

Against the euro, the U.S. currency traded at $1.5665 at 6:37 a.m. in Tokyo, after rising 0.4 percent yesterday. The dollar traded at 107.43 yen, following a 0.3 percent increase. Japan's currency was at 168.30 per euro, after a 0.1 percent gain.

The dollar strengthened yesterday as Bernanke said in a speech in Arlington, Virginia, that the Fed is committed to financial stability and is ``considering several options, including extending the duration of our facilities for primary dealers'' beyond year-end.

``Markets are going through another bout of turbulence, and they're willing to act to counter those forces,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign-exchange group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, on Fed policy makers. ``That's where the support for the dollar is coming from.'' The firm is the world's largest custodial bank, with about $23 trillion in assets under administration.

Dollar's Decline

The Fed's Primary Dealer Credit Facility, which provides direct loans, and the Term Securities Lending Facility, which auctions as much as $200 billion in Treasuries, were created in March in response to the credit crisis. Both programs are aimed at the 20 primary dealers in U.S. government debt.

The dollar has fallen 11 percent against the euro since September, when the Fed made the first of seven reductions in the target lending rate, now 2 percent, to prevent the housing slump and credit losses from plunging the U.S. economy into a recession. The European Central Bank raised its main refinancing rate last week to a seven-year high of 4.25 percent.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker told reporters in Washington yesterday that the weak dollar may fuel ``inflation pressures,'' echoing Bernanke's comments last month that policy makers are ``attentive'' to the effect of the dollar's decline. Lacker said in a speech yesterday that the central bank should consider raising interest rates to limit inflation as the threat of a steep economic slump begins to fade.

Crude Oil

Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are scheduled to testify before Congress tomorrow.

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, yesterday increased as much as 0.6 percent to 73.082, the highest level since June 24.

Crude oil for August delivery fell for a second day, dropping more than 3 percent to $135.90 yesterday. It reached a record high of $145.85 a barrel on July 3. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have moved in the same direction 90 percent of the time during the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the correlation of their value changes.

China's yuan appreciated 0.2 percent to 6.8511 per dollar, near the strongest since a dollar link ended in July 2005, on speculation the government will allow faster gains in the currency to help curb inflation.

The U.S. currency fell 0.1 percent against the euro on July 7 as a report from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said Fannie and Freddie may need to raise a total of $75 billion because of an accounting change. They have enough capital to survive the housing slump and meet new accounting rules, James Lockhart, the director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, told Bloomberg Television yesterday.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net; Candice Zachariahs in New York at czachariahs1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: July 8, 2008 17:42 EDT

Dollar Rises to One-Week High as Group of Eight Leaders Convene

2008-07-08T06:56:00.000+07:00

Dollar Rises to One-Week High as Group of Eight Leaders Convene

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to the highest level against the euro in more than a week as leaders of the Group of Eight nations convened in Japan.

The 15-nation euro and the pound dropped against the dollar as German and British industrial production fell in May. The yen weakened against the euro and the dollar as global stocks advanced, reviving demand for higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan. President George W. Bush, in Japan for the summit, reiterated support yesterday for a ``strong'' dollar.

``With the G-8 meeting in the background, the near-term sentiment of the dollar is improving,'' said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. ``They prefer a strong dollar.''

The dollar increased 0.5 percent to $1.5624 per euro at 9:52 a.m. in New York, from $1.5706 on July 4. It touched $1.5611, the strongest level since June 25. The yen dropped 0.8 percent to 107.70 per U.S. dollar, from 106.80. Japan's currency fell 0.3 percent to 168.29 versus the euro, from 167.73.

South Korea's won rose against all of its major counterparts after the government pledged ``stern action'' to stabilize the local currency. The won climbed 0.7 percent to 1,042.90 per dollar, from 1,050.35 on July 4.

The dollar strengthened versus the euro on speculation U.S. officials will say the currency has fallen too far and try to stem gains in oil prices as the G-8 summit gets under way in Japan. Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S. are meeting for three days.

Bush on Dollar

Bush said yesterday on the first day of his five-day trip to Japan that the U.S. will continue to pursue a strong dollar.

``The U.S. believes in a strong-dollar policy,'' he said at a news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda in Tokyo. The U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong even as growth has slowed, Bush said.

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, rose as much as 0.6 percent to 73.151, the highest level since June 24.

The U.S. currency also appreciated as crude oil fell after Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki expressed confidence in talks with Western governments on the country's nuclear program. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries President Chakib Khelil said yesterday record oil prices are more related to the dollar exchange rate than supply.

Crude Oil Falls

Crude oil for August delivery fell 1.6 percent to $143.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil reached a record $145.85 a barrel on July 3.

The euro fell against the dollar as German industrial production unexpectedly dropped 2.4 percent in May, its third straight decline, prompting traders to pare bets the European Central Bank will raise the main refinancing rate for a second time this year.

``We do see the euro weaker,'' said Stuart Bennett, a senior European strategist at Calyon, the investment-banking unit of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest lender. ``We are not relaxed about the growth outlook, and it's weaker than the ECB is accepting. Even though we suspect inflation means that they might have to hike again, the growth dynamics for Europe are pointing toward a weaker euro.''

The euro will fall to a range of $1.43 to $1.45 by the end of the year, Bennett predicted.

Trichet's `No Bias'

The 15-nation currency declined last week after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said he had ``no bias'' on borrowing costs following the decision to raise the main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent.

The British pound weakened to the lowest level against the dollar in almost two weeks after U.K. factory output fell 0.5 percent in May. The median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was for no change.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-largest U.S. bank, predicted the Bank of England will keep the target lending rate at 5 percent ``for the time being,'' a change from its previous estimate for higher rates in August.

The pound slid as much as 0.9 percent to $1.9649 against the dollar, the lowest since June 24, from $1.9823 on July 4.

Japan's currency dropped 1.1 percent to 13.97 versus the South African rand and 1 percent to 10.44 against the Mexican peso as a rally in stocks encouraged investors to add to holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent, while Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index strengthened 1.7 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 0.9 percent.

In the carry trade, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates. Japan's target lending rate of 0.5 percent is the lowest among major economies and compares with 12 percent in South Africa and 7.75 percent in Mexico.

Dollar VS Euro NEWS

2008-06-26T06:32:00.001+07:00

Dollar Little Changed Versus Euro Before Fed Decision on Rates

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar was little changed against the euro before the Federal Reserve ends a two-day meeting at which policy makers are forecast to keep the target lending rate at the lowest level in more than three years.

The dollar pared its decline as crude oil prices fell on an unexpected increase in inventories, reducing the need to sell the U.S. currency as a hedge against inflation. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on June 9 the central bank would ``strongly resist'' a leap in inflation expectations.

``The Fed will fall short of the most hawkish of expectations,'' said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency research at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. ``The dollar will come under a little bit of pressure.''

The dollar traded at $1.5575 per euro at 10:51 a.m. in New York, compared with $1.5568 yesterday. The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 108.07 yen, from 107.82. The euro increased 0.3 percent to 168.32 yen, from 167.85, and touched 168.46, the strongest level since July 23.

The Norwegian krone advanced to a two-week high against the dollar after Norges Bank increased its target lending rate to 5.75 percent. The krone strengthened 0.3 percent to 5.0989 per dollar and touched 5.0854, the highest level since June 10. The central bank's decision had been expected by nine of the 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The U.S. currency has fallen from a one-month high of $1.5303 per euro reached on June 13, four days after Bernanke said economic risks have faded and accelerating inflation ``would be destabilizing for growth.''

Fed Rate Outlook

The Fed will keep the 2 percent target lending rate unchanged today, all 102 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict. The chance policy makers will increase borrowing costs by a quarter-percentage point is 10 percent, compared with 14 percent odds a week ago, futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show. The chance the Fed will raise the rate by at least a quarter-percentage point in August is 39 percent.

New home sales fell to an annual pace of 512,000 in May, from a revised 525,000 the prior month, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington.

Orders for durable goods excluding transportation items dropped 0.9 percent in May after a revised 1.9 percent increase the prior month, the Commerce Department also said. The median forecast of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a decrease of 1 percent.

`Growth Concerns'

``Due to the underlying growth concerns, it will be very difficult for the Fed to hike rates this year,'' said Matthew Strauss, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. ``That means the market has gotten a little bit ahead of itself pricing in rate increases, and the dollar will come under pressure.''

The dollar has gained 1.3 percent against the euro this quarter as traders bet the economic slowdown sparked by the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market will spread to Europe as the U.S. recovers.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet left open today the option of raising interest rates again after July to contain accelerating inflation. He told the European Parliament in Brussels that inflation in the euro area has ``intensified further in recent months'' and that the bank is in a state of ``heightened alertness.''

The euro may rise to a record 169 yen should it stay above its five-day moving average, said Masashi Hashimoto, a senior currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

The current five-day moving average is 167.59 and represents a level of so-called support, said Tokyo-based Hashimoto, citing technical charts traders use to predict price movements. The euro reached a record high of 168.99 yen on July 23. Support is an area where buy orders may be clustered.

``Should the euro stay beyond its five-day moving average, and should the average show the upward trend, the euro will have a high chance to reach its record high,'' Hashimoto said.

Dollar news

2008-06-17T06:32:00.000+07:00

Dollar Falls as New York Factories Contract, G-8 Stops Short

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell the most against the euro in more than a week as New York state manufacturing shrank in June and the Group of Eight's weekend summit stopped short of calling for a strong U.S. currency.

An index tracking the dollar against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners dropped from the highest level since February. The Norwegian krone was the biggest gainer versus the dollar among the major currencies and the Canadian dollar appreciated the most against the greenback in almost a month as crude oil surged to a record $139.89 a barrel.

``There's further room for disappointment for dollar bulls,'' said Mike Moran, senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. ``The economy is still weak. There was too much expectation for the G-8 to say something to support the dollar.''

The dollar declined 0.6 percent to $1.5464 per euro at 10:58 a.m. in New York, from $1.5380 on June 13. The U.S. currency traded at 108.27 yen, compared with 108.19. The yen dropped 0.7 percent to 167.43 versus the euro, from 166.35, and touched 167.68, the weakest level since Oct. 15.

The U.S. currency fell 0.9 percent to 5.1825 against the Norwegian krone and 0.6 percent to C$1.0236 versus the Canadian dollar as crude oil surged. Commodities such as oil and gold make up half of Canada's exports, while Norway is the world's fifth-largest oil producer.

The dollar falls against the euro when oil rises 93 percent of the time, according to Bloomberg calculations based on value changes. Crude oil for July delivery rose to $137.93 a barrel after touching the all-time high.

`Under Pressure'

``As long as oil keeps rallying, the dollar will be under pressure,'' said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York.

The yen fell to an eight-month low versus the euro as reduced currency volatility encouraged investors to buy higher- yielding assets funded by low-cost loans in Japan.

Japan's currency dropped 0.9 percent to 212.50 versus the pound and 0.3 percent to 81.33 against the New Zealand dollar as investors increased carry trades in which they get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher. Japan's target lending rate of 0.5 percent compares with 2 percent in the U.S., 4 percent in the euro zone, 5 percent in the U.K. and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.

The risk that fluctuating exchange rates will erase carry- trade profits fell. Implied volatility on one-month euro-yen options dropped for a fourth day, declining to 10.09 percent, from 10.31 percent on June 13.

Dollar Versus Yen

The U.S. currency will rise to 110 against the yen by year- end from a previous estimate of 103, and will climb to 112 by the end of March, from a previous forecast of 105, Tokyo-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. currency strategists Tohru Sasaki and Junya Tanase wrote in a research note today.

The U.S. Dollar Index traded on ICE futures decreased for the first time in three days, falling 0.6 percent to 73.73. It touched 74.314 on June 13, the highest since Feb. 28.

The U.S. currency weakened versus the euro as a gauge of New York state manufacturing dropped. The New York Fed's general economic index decreased to minus 8.7 in June from minus 3.2 the prior month. Readings less than zero signal contraction. The New York Fed began its Empire State gauge in 2001.

The euro rose earlier versus the dollar after the European Union's statistics office reported that the inflation rate rose to 3.7 percent in May, the highest level since June 1992.

G-8 Meeting

The G-8, which comprises the U.S., Japan, Russia, Germany, France, the U.K., Italy and Canada, stuck to its practice over the weekend of not making a joint comment on currencies when central bankers are absent.

``The world economy continues to face uncertainty, and downside risks persist,'' G-8 officials said in a statement on June 14 after a meeting in Osaka, Japan. ``Elevated commodity prices, especially of oil and food, pose a serious challenge.''

The U.S. currency rose last week the most against the euro since 2005 as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said economic risks have faded, raising speculation policy makers will increase borrowing costs this year to contain inflation. The yield on two-year Treasury notes posted its biggest weekly increase in 26 years last week, rising 66 basis points to above 3 percent.

``The perception that the Fed will hike rates is still strong,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``Short-term rates have risen quite sharply the last couple of weeks, and that will keep the dollar sustained.''

The dollar will strengthen 3 percent to $1.50 per euro by year-end, according to the mean estimate of 39 firms surveyed by Bloomberg. Economists anticipate that the ECB will raise rates a quarter-percentage point by September and then cut borrowing costs by year-end. The Fed will boost rates three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of the third quarter of 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Dollar Trades Near Two-Week High Against Euro on U.S. Services

2008-06-05T05:56:00.000+07:00

Dollar Trades Near Two-Week High Against Euro on U.S. Services

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded near a two-week high against the euro after a report showed U.S. services industries expanded in May at a faster pace than forecast, indicating the economy is weathering record gasoline prices.

``The tone is still dollar-bullish for the day,'' said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist in New York at DailyFX.com, an online currency dealer. ``The non-manufacturing sector is still expanding.''

The dollar traded at $1.5451 per euro at 10:30 a.m. in New York, compared with $1.5445 yesterday, when it touched $1.5411, the highest level since May 14. The dollar was at 105.08 yen, unchanged from yesterday. Japan's currency traded at 162.35 per euro, compared with 162.32.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of non- manufacturing businesses decreased to 51.7 last month from 52 in April. The median forecast of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a drop to 51. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

Australia's dollar rose against all of the other major currencies after a government report showed the economy grew in the first quarter at twice the pace economists forecast. The Aussie rose 0.9 percent to 96.07 U.S. cents after touching 94.87 U.S. cents, the lowest level since May 16. It strengthened to 96.54 U.S. cents on May 21, the highest level since it began trading freely in 1983.

Company Hiring

A private report based on payroll data showed U.S. companies unexpectedly added jobs in May. The 40,000 increase followed a revised gain of 13,000 for the prior month that was more than previously estimated, ADP Employer Services said. The median forecast of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reduction of 30,000.

The dollar touched a two-week high against the euro yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said via satellite to a conference in Barcelona, Spain, that policy makers are ``attentive'' to the weakened dollar's effect on inflation. He said interest rates are ``well positioned'' to promote growth and stable prices, signaling the Fed is done cutting interest rates.

``We do like the dollar higher, but a little too much was made out of Bernanke's comments,'' said Win Thin, a New York- based currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``They caught the short term players wrong-footed. There was a lot of short squeezes,'' meaning traders had to buy the dollar to exit bets that it will fall, minimizing losses.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 63 percent chance the Fed will raise the 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by December, compared with 59 percent odds a month ago.

The dollar has increased 3.5 percent since touching the all-time low of $1.6019 per euro on April 22, as the Fed signaled it will stop cutting interest rates. It will strengthen to $1.50 against the euro and trade at 105 yen by the end of the year, according to the median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Today Dollar NEWS PREDIKSI (PREDICTION FOREX MARKET)

2008-05-28T06:46:00.000+07:00

Yen Falls to 1-Month Low as U.S. Stocks Gain, Spur Carry Trade

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell to a one-month low against the euro and dropped versus the dollar as an advance in U.S. stocks encouraged investors to add to holdings of higher- yielding assets funded in the Japanese currency.

The yen declined against the Australian and the New Zealand dollars, two favorites of so-called carry trades. The Australian dollar traded close to a 25-year high versus its U.S. counterpart, while the kiwi dollar gained a sixth straight day. The U.S. dollar extended gains versus the yen and euro as new- home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in April.

``We are seeing improvement in risk appetite, and that's weakening the yen,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign exchange group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon. The firm is the world's largest custodian bank, with more than $20 trillion in assets under administration.

The yen touched 163.89 per euro, the weakest since April 28, before trading at 163.82 at 10:07 a.m. in New York, from 163.10 yesterday. It declined to 104.29 per dollar, from 103.43. The euro fell to $1.5708, from $1.5770 yesterday, after rising to $1.5818, the highest level since April 24.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.6 percent.

In the carry trade, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in another with higher interest rates, earning the difference between the two. The risk is currency moves erase those profits.

Japan's benchmark rate of 0.5 percent compares with a central bank rate of 4 percent in Europe, 2 percent in the U.S., 7.25 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.

Euro's Reversal

The euro reversed gains versus the dollar after reports showed German consumer confidence fell more than economists forecast and French business confidence declined to the weakest in more than two years in May.

GfK AG's index for June declined to 4.9, from 5.6 in May, the Nuremberg-based market-research company said today. Economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the gauge would fall to 5.7, from an initial May estimate of 5.9. An index of sentiment among 4,000 French manufacturers slid to 102, the lowest since December 2005, from 106 in April, the country's statistics office said.

``We see weakness developing in many aspects and that's why we are seeing a retreat'' from the euro, said Hans-Guenter Redeker, global head of currency strategy in London at BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank.

Consumer Prices Rise

Consumer prices in the euro region rose 3.5 percent in May, faster than the 3.3 percent gain the previous month, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The statistics office will release the figure on May 30.

The dollar extended gains as new-home sales in the U.S. rose 3.3 percent to an annual pace of 526,000 from a 509,000 rate the prior month that was the lowest in 17 years, Commerce Department data showed. A separate report today showed home prices dropped last quarter by the most in at least 20 years.

Confidence among U.S. consumers fell to the lowest level in more than 15 years. The Conference Board's confidence index declined more than forecast to 57.2, the lowest level since October 1992, from a revised 62.8 in April, the New York-based research group said.

Dollar News

2008-05-23T05:58:00.000+07:00

Dollar Snaps Two-Day Drop on Rising Bets for Fed Rate Increase

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar snapped two days of declines against the euro, rallying from the lowest level in a month, as traders added to bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by year-end.

The U.S. currency also gained versus the yen after minutes of the Fed's April meeting yesterday showed most policy makers viewed the cut in the target rate to 2 percent as ``a close call,'' indicating the central bank has gone on hold to stem inflation. The New Zealand dollar rose to a two-week high after tax cuts reduced the need to lower borrowing costs.

``The Fed is telling us to not think in terms of easing,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``That is the most important feature behind the dollar comeback today.''

The U.S. currency strengthened to $1.5708 per euro as of 10:22 a.m. in New York, from $1.5795 in New York yesterday. It earlier touched $1.5814, the lowest level since April 24. The dollar rose to 104.04 yen, from 103.05 yen. The euro traded at 163.44 yen, up from 162.76 yen.

The dollar extended its gains after U.S. house prices fell less than expected in the first quarter. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said its house price purchase index declined 0.2 percent, from a revised 0.3 percent gain the previous quarter. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 13 economists was for a drop of 1.3 percent.

The New Zealand dollar rose after Finance Minister Michael Cullen cut taxes, easing pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates to support the economy. The kiwi, as it is known, climbed to 78.96 U.S. cents, the highest level since May 7, before trading at 78.54 cents, from 77.70 yesterday.

Fed Rate Bets

The Australian dollar yesterday touched the highest since being allowed to trade freely in 1983 as investors sought the nation's higher-yielding debt. The currency, which climbed to as high as 96.54 U.S. cents yesterday, was at 95.84 cents today, from 96.25. The Aussie has risen 10 percent this year, the second-biggest gain among the 16 most-traded currencies.

The Aussie will climb to equal value with the U.S. currency for the first time since 1982 as the central bank considers raising interest rates, say banks including RBC Capital Markets and ABN Amro Holding NV.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show traders see a 92 percent likelihood the Fed will keep its target rate for overnight lending between banks at 2 percent on June 25, up from odds of 88 percent yesterday. Traders also see a 32 percent probability the Fed will lift the rate in September to 2.25 percent, up from a 21 percent chance yesterday.

``The Fed has a more balanced view on inflation and growth,'' said Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets Inc. in Toronto, a unit of Canada's biggest bank by assets. The dollar decline has ``lost momentum.''

ECB Interest Rate

The dollar has fallen 2 percent against the euro since May 8, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation remains the bank's top priority. That signaled policy makers won't cut the 4 percent benchmark interest rate soon.

The dollar advanced to $1.9806 against the British pound, from $1.9732, and was at 1.0334 versus the Swiss franc, from 1.0250. The Fed cut its 2008 economic growth projection to a range of 0.3 percent to 1.2 percent, from its January forecast of 1.3 percent to 2 percent, according to the minutes.

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the dollar against currencies of six trading partners, rose to 72.071, from 71.938 yesterday.

Oil Price

Gains for the dollar may be limited as record oil prices stoke inflation while slowing economic growth, said Hans-Guenter Redeker, global head of currency strategy in London at BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank. Oil surpassed $135 a barrel for the first time today before settling back to around $133.

``The dollar will remain on the back foot,'' Redeker said. It will be hurt by ``further increases in commodity prices.''

The euro climbed versus the dollar yesterday after German business confidence unexpectedly rose, bolstering speculation the ECB won't cut interest rates.

The Munich-based Ifo institute said its index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, rose to 103.5, from 102.4 in April. Economists predicted a decline to 102, according to the median of 44 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Germany is the biggest economy in the euro region.

The euro may rise to $1.5850 against the dollar in one week, based on charts used to predict price movements, said Masashi Hashimoto, a senior currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

The currency has held above so-called support at the five- and 21-day moving averages of $1.5663 and $1.5553, respectively, signaling further gains in the near term, Tokyo-based Hashimoto said. Support is where buyers are expected to outweigh sellers.

The resistance level of $1.5850 represents a 76.4 percent reversal of the euro's slide to a low of $1.5285 on May 8, from a record high of $1.6019 on April 22, based on a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence. Resistance is a level where selling is expected to outweigh buying.

EURO NEWS and prediksi forex

2008-05-15T06:19:00.000+07:00

Dollar Rises as Stock Gains Encourage Demand for Higher Yields

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the yen as an increase in U.S. stocks encouraged investors to buy higher- yielding assets funded in Japan.

The 15-nation euro is overvalued by as much as 20 percent against the dollar, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said late yesterday. The Australian dollar fell against the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar and the pound as wage growth unexpectedly slowed last quarter.

``A stronger equity market is helping risk appetite,'' said Fabian Eliasson, vice-president of foreign exchange sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New York. ``In the short run, we are going to see higher dollar-yen.''

The dollar increased 0.4 percent to 105.13 yen at 10:06 a.m. in New York, from 104.75 yesterday. The dollar advanced 0.2 percent to $1.5445 per euro, from $1.5474. It touched the all- time low of $1.6019 on April 22. Japan's currency fell 0.2 percent to 162.32 per euro, from 162.10.

The Australian dollar dropped for a second day versus the U.S. dollar after a government report showed wage growth unexpectedly slowed last quarter, increasing concern economic growth is easing. The Aussie decreased 0.7 percent to 93.42 U.S. cents, 1.1 percent to 1.0705 versus the Canadian dollar and 0.5 percent to 2.0785 against the pound.

U.S. stocks advanced, led by financial shares, on a report showing slower-than forecast U.S. inflation and a narrower-than- estimated loss at mortgage-finance company Freddie Mac. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index increased 0.7 percent.

U.S. Inflation

Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent in April, following a 0.3 percent increase the previous month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an advance of 0.3 percent last month.

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations said in Washington on April 11 they were concerned about ``sharp fluctuations in major currencies'' and their ``possible implications for economic and financial stability.''

That message is being ``heard'' by financial markets, Lagarde said at a press conference in Brussels yesterday. The euro trading at $1.55 ``is still at 10 percent, 15 percent, 20 percent above the appropriate fundamentals,'' she said.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 92 percent chance the Fed will hold its target lending rate at 2 percent at its next meeting on June 25, compared with 94 percent odds yesterday. The balance of bets is for a cut of a quarter- percentage point. There's a 28 percent chance of an increase to 2.25 percent in September.

Dollar Outlook

The dollar will strengthen against most major currencies in the next six months as the Fed stops reducing interest rates, a survey of Bloomberg users showed.

The end of rate cuts will make American assets more attractive to international investors, according to U.S. respondents in the monthly Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index, which questioned 3,447 users from Chicago to London to Hong Kong. While users in the U.S. grew optimistic about the greenback, participants in Germany and France became pessimistic about the euro for the first time since the survey started in November.

The Fed has cut the target lending rate seven times since Sept. 18 to avert a recession, pushing the dollar down more than 10 percent versus the euro and yen.

FOREX NEWS Prediction

2008-05-13T06:07:00.000+07:00

Dollar Climbs on Speculation Fed to Halt Cuts, Losses Overdone

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the yen for the first time in six days as traders speculated the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates next month.

The currency increased from a three-week low versus the yen as a chart traders use to predict price movements signaled last week's 2.4 percent decline was too large to be sustained. The yen dropped against the South African rand and the Brazilian real as speculation the worst of the financial crisis is over led investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.

``It's not going to be an express train toward a much stronger dollar, but it will trade stronger slowly and gradually,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of foreign- exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. ``The U.S. is not going to have as deep a downturn as everyone initially portrayed.''

The dollar climbed 0.8 percent to 103.66 yen at 11:01 a.m. in New York, from 102.87 on May 9. It was the biggest gain since May 2. The euro increased 0.9 percent to 160.68 yen, from 159.21 yen, the largest one-day advance since April 16. The dollar traded at $1.5496 per euro, compared with $1.5482.

Traders in the futures market have turned bullish on the dollar versus the euro for the first time since December 2005. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the greenback versus the euro, known as net longs, was 21,315 on April 29, figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington show. There were net-short positions in each of the previous 123 weeks. Net longs were trimmed to 12,512 on May 6.

Dollar's Rally

The U.S. currency has rallied 3.5 percent since touching the all-time low of $1.6019 per euro on April 22. The dollar gained momentum late last month after Fed policy makers said ``substantial'' rate cuts since September would help foster growth. The dollar got a further boost from a Labor Department report showing U.S. employers eliminated fewer jobs in April than economists forecast.

The pound increased from a two-week low against the euro and climbed versus the dollar after a surge in U.K. producer prices led traders to reduce bets that the Bank of England will cut its 5 percent target lending rate next month. Sterling rose 0.2 percent to 79.05 pence per euro and 0.3 percent to $1.9605.

South Africa's rand strengthened against all of the major currencies on speculation Johannesburg-based MTN Group Ltd., Africa's biggest mobile-phone operator, may soon be bought by a foreign company. The rand increased 1 percent to 7.6535 against the dollar and 1.2 percent to 11.83 per euro.

Weaker Yen

The yen dropped 2 percent versus the rand, 1.5 percent against the real and 1.3 percent against Norway's krone on speculation investors will increase carry trades, in which they get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher. Japan's 0.5 percent benchmark interest rate compares with 11.75 percent in Brazil, 11.5 percent in South Africa and 5.5 percent in Norway.

The U.S. currency's 14-day stochastic oscillator versus the yen was 8.1 on May 9 and 35.67 today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A level below 20 suggests the currency has fallen too fast. The chart measures the closing price of a currency relative to its highs and lows during a particular period to gauge whether it will rise or fall.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 84 percent chance the Fed will hold its target lending rate at 2 percent at its next meeting on June 25, up from 82 percent odds on May 9. The balance of bets is for a cut of a quarter-percentage point. There's a 10 percent chance of an increase to 2.25 percent in September. The central bank has lowered the fed funds target 3.25 percentage points since September.

Fed Rate Outlook

``It's doubtful that the Fed can afford to cut more,'' said Benedikt Germanier, an analyst at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``We are short on the euro-dollar. Our three-month forecast is $1.47.''

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in a speech today in Illinois that the central bank's current interest-rate stance is ``appropriate.''

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the dollar against currencies of six trading partners, rose to 73.214 today, from 73.050 on May 9. It dropped to a record of 70.698 on March 17. The dollar strengthened 0.6 percent to 1.0477 versus the Swiss franc.

The U.S. currency will increase to $1.50 per euro and trade at 102 yen by Dec. 31, according to the median forecast of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

A Commerce Department report tomorrow will probably show U.S. retail sales fell 0.2 percent in April, following a 0.2 percent gain the prior month, according to the median forecast of 65 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey.

Dollar news

2008-05-08T06:03:00.000+07:00

Dollar Rises on U.S. Productivity, Signs of European Slowdown

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the euro and the yen as U.S. productivity unexpectedly accelerated in March while Europe showed signs of an economic slowdown.

The currency appreciated for the first time in three days versus the euro as the yield advantage of German bunds over Treasuries decreased to the narrowest in more than two months. The pound fell to a 2 1/2-month low against the dollar after an industry report showed U.K. consumer confidence declined last month to the weakest in at least four years.

``Market sentiment is shifting to a more positive outlook for the dollar,'' said Camilla Sutton, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. ``In the near term, there's a real reason the dollar should strengthen on the back of weaker European data.''

The dollar increased 1 percent to $1.5378 against the euro at 10:30 a.m. in New York, from $1.5532 yesterday. The U.S. currency rose 0.6 percent to 105.43 yen, from 104.77. The euro fell 0.4 percent to 162.15 yen, from 162.71.

The U.S. currency strengthened as the Labor Department reported that worker productivity unexpectedly accelerated in the first quarter, indicating the world's largest economy can expand with lower inflation.

Hoenig on Inflation

The dollar started its gain as Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said in a speech in Denver yesterday that ``serious'' U.S. inflation pressure may compel the central bank to increase interest rates.

``There is a significant risk that higher inflation will become embedded in the economy and require significant monetary policy tightening to reduce it,'' said Hoenig, a nonvoting Fed official this year.

The British pound dropped 0.8 percent versus the Canadian dollar and 0.7 percent against the Swedish krona after Nationwide Building Society said an index of sentiment in the U.K. declined to the lowest level since the survey began in May 2004. The pound fell as much as 1.1 percent to $1.9518, the weakest since Feb. 21. It decreased 0.2 percent to 78.87 pence against the euro.

The U.S. currency has rebounded 3.7 percent versus the euro since April 22, when it sank to a record low of $1.6019. The Fed said rate reductions to date were ``substantial'' after lowering its target lending rate last week by a quarter-percentage point to 2 percent, its seventh cut since September.

Dollar Outlook

The dollar will rise to $1.47 against the euro in three months because the Fed may not lower interest rates any further, according to UBS AG, the world's second biggest currency trader.

``Macro developments are supportive for the dollar continuing to strengthen,'' wrote Geoffrey Yu, Zurich-based strategist at UBS, in a research note today. ``Fed members stepped up hawkish commentary.''

The spread between two-year German notes and similar- maturity U.S. Treasuries reached 1.36 percentage points today, the narrowest since late February, making dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors. The European Central Bank will leave its main refinancing rate at a six-year high of 4 percent tomorrow, according to all 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Retail sales in the euro area declined 1.6 percent in March from a year earlier, the biggest drop since the data began in 1995, the European Union's statistics office said today. Sales fell 0.4 percent from the prior month.

German Manufacturing

The euro extended its drop versus the dollar after a government report showed German manufacturing orders dropped 5 percent in the year ended in March, compared with an 8.9 percent increase the prior month.

``The ECB has already shifted from a pretty hawkish stance to something close to neutral,'' said Meg Browne, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. ``We expect the European data to continue to deteriorate and the ECB to shift to a more dovish stance.''

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the currency against those of six trading partners, rose to 73.531, from 72.999 yesterday.

``We're dollar bulls,'' said Michael Metcalfe, the head of macro strategy in London at State Street Global Markets, a unit of the world's largest money manager for institutions. ``We've seen the top in euro-dollar.''

EURO NEWS

2008-05-06T05:55:00.000+07:00

Euro Rises on Speculation ECB to Keep Rates at Six-Year High

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose against the dollar for the first time in three days on speculation the European Central Bank will keep interest rates at a six-year high this week to control inflation.

The 15-nation currency, down 3.4 percent versus the dollar after reaching a record on April 22, appreciated as ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the risk of inflation is ``significant.'' The Australian and New Zealand dollars increased versus the U.S. dollar as commodity prices rose.

``Hawkish tones from the ECB will keep the euro'' in demand, said Dustin Reid, a senior currency strategist in Chicago at ABN Amro Bank NV. ``The market is very focused on any type of price data coming out of Europe.''

The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.5456 at 10:29 a.m. in New York, from $1.5424 on May 2. It reached a record of $1.6019 on April 22. The euro rose 0.2 percent to 162.82 yen, from 162.53 yen. The dollar traded at 105.42 yen, compared with 105.40 yen.

The U.S. currency pared its drop against the euro as a private report showed service industries expanded in April. The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, increased to 52, from 49.6 the prior month.

The median forecast of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reading of 49.1. Fifty is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

The Australian dollar advanced 0.7 percent to 94.15 U.S. cents and the New Zealand dollar increased 0.5 percent to 78.38 U.S. cents as the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index rose 2 percent on May 2, its first increase in four days.

Exports of raw materials contribute about 17 percent to Australia's economy, while more than a third of New Zealand's export income comes from meat, wool and dairy products.

Weaker Pound

The pound fell 0.6 percent to 78.66 pence against the euro, from 78.23 pence at the end of last week. The Bank of England will keep its benchmark rate at 5 percent on May 8, according to the median forecast of 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Markets were closed in London for May Day. Sterling dropped 0.2 percent to $1.9688, from $1.9717.

The ECB will leave its main refinancing rate at 4 percent when policy makers meet May 8, according to all 53 economists in a separate Bloomberg News survey. The Federal Reserve cut the target rate for overnight lending between banks by a quarter- percentage point to 2 percent on April 30, the seventh reduction since September.

``The recent rebound in the dollar is unlikely to be sustained given the fundamentals,'' said Michael Klawitter, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Dresdner Kleinwort, the investment bank owned by Allianz SE, Europe's biggest insurer. ``As such, the euro should gain some ground, at least in the near term.''

Inflation Ceiling

Inflation will exceed the ECB's ceiling of 2 percent for a 10th year, according to the European Commission. Inflation expectations in the euro region, measured by the difference between the yields of nominal and inflation-protected bonds, increased as crude oil traded near a record and commodity prices spiraled higher.

The so-called breakeven rate on 10-year French inflation- linked notes rose to 2.33 percentage points today, from 2.08 percentage points a year ago, reflecting the rate of price growth investors expect over the next decade.

The dollar posted its second consecutive weekly advance against the euro last week on speculation the Fed will stop raising interest rates and the European economy will start to slow down.

Fed Rate

Interest-rate futures on the Chicago Board of Trade on May 2 showed an 86 percent chance U.S. policy makers will keep the target lending rate on hold when they next meet June 25, compared with 80 percent odds on May 1. The balance of bets is for a cut of a quarter-percentage point.

Traders are betting for the first time since December 2005 that the dollar will gain versus the European currency, according to figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro compared with those on a gain, known as net shorts, was 21,315 on April 29, compared with net longs of 18,907 a week earlier.

``We may have seen a short-term low in the euro on Friday,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``With the build-up of the short euro position, the risk is that the ECB stays quite hawkish.''

As Russia's Dmitry Medvedev prepares to be sworn in as president on May 7, Merrill Lynch & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG predict gains of as much as 4 percent in the ruble in the next six months against a currency basket made up of 0.55 dollars and 0.45 rubles.

The firms say pressure will mount on the Russian central bank to let the ruble appreciate to stem inflation even if it risks damping profits of oil and energy exporters, which according to Merrill Lynch fund more than half of the federal budget. The ruble rose 0.2 percent to 23.7503 against the dollar today, from 23.8012 on May 2.

Dollar Rises to Three-Week High on Bets Fed Will Signal Pause

2008-04-30T06:04:00.000+07:00

Dollar Rises to Three-Week High on Bets Fed Will Signal Pause

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar strengthened to a three- week high against the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal that it's done lowering interest rates.

The currency is headed for its first monthly advance against the euro this year, and also gained versus the Norwegian krone and pound today, as interest-rate futures show the Fed may lower borrowing costs tomorrow and then pause. The pound is poised for its biggest monthly decline against the dollar in 2008 as mortgage approvals in the U.K. sank.

``If the Fed is not at the end of the easing cycle, it's near the end,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of foreign- exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. ``I don't think the dollar will strengthen aggressively by any stretch, but I do think it's trying to bottom.''

The dollar rose 0.4 percent to $1.5596 per euro at 10:26 a.m. in New York, from $1.5657 yesterday. It touched $1.5541, the strongest level since April 3. The dollar declined 0.8 percent to 103.33 yen, from 104.19 yesterday. The euro weakened 1.2 percent to 161.20 yen, from 163.11.

The U.S. currency has increased 4 percent against the yen and 1.4 percent versus the euro this month. The dollar fell to $1.6019 against the euro on April 22, the lowest level since the European currency debuted in 1999.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 82 percent chance the Fed will cut the target rate for overnight lending by a quarter-percentage point to 2 percent and a 71 percent likelihood that the rate will be held at that level in June.

New Zealand Dollar

New Zealand's dollar weakened against all of the major currencies after a government report showed the annual trade deficit unexpectedly widened in March. The kiwi declined 1.5 percent to 77.42 U.S. cents after touching 77.27, the lowest level since Jan. 28.

Australia's dollar dropped 0.8 percent to 93.12 U.S. cents after the New York-based Conference Board's Australian index of leading economic indicators fell in February for a third month.

The pound weakened today after the Bank of England said banks granted 64,000 loans for house purchases in March, the lowest level in at least nine years, as the credit-market freeze prompted banks to reduce lending.

Sterling fell 0.9 percent to $1.9735 per dollar, from $1.9914, dropping 0.5 percent this month. The British currency decreased 0.4 percent to 78.92 pence per euro, from 78.62 pence. The dollar rose 0.8 percent to 5.1297 versus Norway's krone.

Bond Spread

The European currency's decline against the dollar accelerated as Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader, reported its first quarterly loss in five years after writing down the value of loans for leveraged buyouts and asset- backed securities by 2.7 billion euros.

European retail sales dropped the most in more than four years in April as rising fuel and food prices squeezed shoppers' budgets, the Bloomberg purchasing managers index showed today. French consumer confidence dropped this month to a record low as accelerating inflation squeezed incomes.

``You have a re-emergence of the recoupling theme that the slowdown in the U.S. is spreading to other countries,'' said Michael Malpede, a senior currency analyst in Chicago at Man Global Research. ``The dollar, which has been on its knees, is in a short-term bottoming process.''

Investors should sell the euro against the dollar over the next several weeks because two-year German bunds have lost some of their yield advantage over comparable-maturity Treasuries, said Citigroup Inc., one of the 10 biggest currency traders. The yield difference, or spread, between the two securities has decreased to 1.46 percentage points, from 1.85 on March 31, the most since the euro was launched in 1999.

ECB Rate

European Central Bank policy makers have held the main refinancing rate at a six-year high of 4 percent since June to contain inflation. The U.S. central bank has cut its fed funds target 3 percentage points to 2.25 percent since September.

Gains in the dollar may stall at 106.60 yen, said Masashi Kurabe of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., citing charts that traders use to predict price movements.

The resistance level for the dollar is a 38.2 percent reversal of its decline to a low of 95.76 yen on March 17 from a high of 124.13 yen on June 22, based on the Fibonacci series of numbers. Resistance is a level where sellers may outnumber buyers.

``The dollar may reach that level in one month, but will face strong resistance around there,'' said Kurabe, head of the foreign-exchange sales and trading group in Hong Kong at Japan's second-largest bank by assets.

The U.S. currency remained higher against the euro as the Conference Board reported that confidence among U.S. consumers fell less than forecast this month. The New York-based research group's index of sentiment dropped to 62.3, the lowest level since March 2003, from a revised 65.9 in March. The median forecast of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for the gauge to fall to 61 from a previously reported 64.5.

GBP/JPY - British Pound Yen

2008-04-23T06:07:00.000+07:00

GBP/JPY - British Pound Yen

Short term (Intraday)

205,29. GBP JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in 202,00 / 206,50 range. We won't take a position. BUt this is to risk to take position

205,60 - 206,50
Supports: 203,60 - 203,00
Long term chart: GBP/JPY - British Pound Yen

updated 22 avr 2008 13:10 GMT

EUR / USD prediction

2008-04-18T05:49:00.000+07:00

The euro gave back recent gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ $1.5845 level and was capped around the $1.5985 level. The common currency came within fifteen pips of testing the psychologically-important US$ 1.6000 figure before traders booked profits. Data released in the U.S. today saw the April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey fall to -24.9 in April from -17.4 in March while the March leading index moved higher 0.1% - the first increase in six months. It was also reported that weekly initial jobless claims climbed 17,000 to 372,000 while continuing jobless claims rose 26,000 to 2.984 million, the highest since June 2004. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn today suggested a more permanent “liquidity backstop” for primary dealers to maintain the orderly functioning of the U.S. securities market. In eurozone news, European Central Bank member Weber hawkishly reported the ECB’s staff may need to upwardly revised inflation expectations in June. The most recent assessment by the ECB in March projected an average inflation rate of around 2.9% for 2008. Eurogroup President Juncker verbally intervened against the euro’s rise today saw the markets should not underestimate the Group of Seven’s comments this past weekend about currencies. The ECB’s April bulletin was released today and reported temporarily high inflation rates may remain for some time, principally on account of elevated food and energy prices. EMU-15 economic data released today saw the EMU-15 trade surplus reach €800 million in February. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.5345 level.

Euro Advance Against Dollar May Stall on Charts, Citigroup Says

2008-04-10T05:20:00.000+07:00

Euro Advance Against Dollar May Stall on Charts, Citigroup Says

April 9 (Bloomberg) -- The euro's advance against the dollar may stall after its failure to strengthen beyond so- called resistance at $1.5805, said technical analysts led by Tom Fitzpatrick at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

Resistance at $1.5805 represents a 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of the euro's decline from its record high of $1.5903 on March 17 to $1.5341 on March 24, according to Citigroup's chart. Since March 24, the euro has rallied 2 percent. Resistance is where sell orders may be clustered.

``The euro-dollar headed higher in its continuing gravity- defying performance, but we still feel that this elevated level is difficult to sustain,'' wrote Citigroup's analysts, including New York-based Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy, in a research note yesterday.

Europe's single currency traded at $1.5703 as of 1:40 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.5712 late in New York yesterday, when it reached $1.5798, its highest since March 31.

``While we still remain biased to believe the euro-dollar may head lower, we need a move through good support levels to support this view,'' the analysts wrote, citing support at $1.5628, between $1.5510 and $1.5574, and at $1.5341.

The $1.5628 level is the April 7 low, the area between $1.5510 and $1.5574 includes the April 3 low, and the $1.5341 level is the March 24 low, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Support is where buy orders may be clustered.

``We need a break below $1.5341 to validate this view and suggest a sub-$1.48 move,'' the analysts wrote. A level below $1.48 would be the euro's lowest since Feb. 26.

Fibonacci analysis is a mathematical formula based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Other Fibonacci points are 23.6 percent, 38.2 percent, 50 percent and 61.8 percent. A break of one indicates a currency may move to the next, while a failure suggests a trend may stall.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Expert Advisor the best robot trading

2008-03-21T06:05:00.001+07:00

download disini here http://protraderforex.com/Expert-Advisor.zip

Expert Advisor the best robot trading

Expert Advisor is forex trading program which
trades automatically. From the makers of Conquest expert advisor the
legendary automated trading system that is making users 753% per
year. Protraderforex is releasing a basic forex trading robot which
will allow new users to try an expert advisor to get the feel of
trading using Metatrader. This basic expert advisor is very simple
to use. It will give everyone a chance to learn how to use this
powerful tool to trade and profit in the forex market.

FOREX NEWS U.K

2008-03-20T05:48:00.000+07:00

U.K. Pound Falls After BOE Minutes Show 7-2 Rate-Decision Split

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- The pound fell against the euro and the dollar after the minutes of the Bank of England rate-setting meeting showed two policy makers voted to cut borrowing costs.

The U.K. currency dropped, and government bonds rallied, after HBOS Plc, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, plummeted by as much as 17.1 percent in London and denied it had ``liquidity problems.'' Central bank policy makers voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark interest rate at 5.25 percent on March 6, with John Gieve and David Blanchflower dissenting, minutes of the meeting released today showed.

``The pound is being tarred with the same brush as the dollar,'' said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at Rabobank, the third-largest Dutch bank. ``The U.K. has a very significant financial system of great importance to the overall economy. The system is suffering great distress, that's quite clear.''

Britain's currency fell as much as 1.4 percent to 78.94 pence per euro, and was at 78.82 by 4:40 p.m. in London, from 77.88 yesterday. It dropped to $1.9855, from $2.0064, the third day it has traded below $2.

The Bank of England will host a meeting of banking executives tomorrow as officials struggle to ease concern about the health of the country's financial system.

``Senior members of the banking community'' will attend the meeting in London, Lesley McLeod, a spokeswoman for the British Bankers' Association, said in an interview.

U.K. stocks fell, led by HBOS, on speculation the lender may have funding problems. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc also fell.

`No Liquidity Problems'

``There are no liquidity problems,'' HBOS spokesman Shane O'Riordain said in a telephone interview today. ``We have ready access to a deep pool of deposits. We can access the wholesale markets whenever we feel appropriate to do so.''

HBOS has declined by a third in the past three weeks on concern it may be vulnerable to writedowns and higher inter-bank lending costs. Pressures on short-term funding forced Bear Stearns Cos. to agree to a takeover by JPMorgan Chase & Co. this week to stave-off collapse.

The difference between what the U.K. government and banks pay to borrow for three months, a gauge of the availability of funds in the British money markets, rose to a record 179 basis points, from 158 basis points a week earlier. The spread averaged 11 basis points in the first half of 2007.

Barclays Plc, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Investec Securities and BNP Paribas SA brought forward forecasts for the next Bank of England rate cut on signs support for a reduction is building among policy makers.

The key rate will drop to 5 percent on April 10, instead of at the central bank's meeting in May, London-based economists from the banks wrote in notes to clients today.

U.K. government bonds rallied as stock-market losses across Europe stoked investor demand for the safest assets.

The yield on the two-year gilt fell 6 basis points to 3.69 percent. The price of the 5.75 percent security due December 2009 advanced 0.10, or 1 pound per 1,000-pound ($1,996) face amount, to 103.38.

Dollar Advances Versus Yen as Goldman, Lehman Beat Estimates

2008-03-19T06:03:00.000+07:00

Dollar Advances Versus Yen as Goldman, Lehman Beat Estimates

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose versus the yen, snapping a four-day slide, as U.S. stocks rallied on stronger- than-forecast earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

The U.S. currency pared losses against the euro, after plunging to a record low yesterday following the fire sale of Bear Stearns Cos. The dollar is still down a fifth straight day against the euro as traders bet the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as much as 1 percentage point today in an attempt to restore confidence to financial markets.

``The market is relieved that these two firms that are viewed as pillars of Wall Street survived the earnings season without major mishaps,'' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at the Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodial bank with over $20 trillion in assets under administration. ``It's a relief for the dollar.''

The dollar rose to 98.28 yen at 10:20 a.m. in New York, from 97.33 late yesterday, when it touched the lowest since August 1995. The U.S. currency traded at $1.5785 per euro from $1.5729 yesterday, when it reached $1.5903, the weakest level since the euro started trading in 1999. The yen dropped to 155 per euro from 153.07. It fell against all 16 of the most-traded currencies as traders put on carry-trade bets funded by loans in Japan, where the benchmark rate is 0.5 percent.

Goldman, the world's biggest securities firm by market value, reported a smaller-than-estimated 53 percent drop in first-quarter profit. Lehman Brothers reported its smallest quarterly profit since 2003, yet still beat analysts' estimates.

Storm Weathered

The dollar fell to record lows against the euro on each of the past five trading days amid concern that losses from credit markets may erode the capital of Wall Street firms.

``The storm has been weathered,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of currency trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. ``The bulk of the dollar losses are in the market right now.''

The British pound rose to $2.020, from $1.999, after a U.K. government report showed inflation accelerated to a nine-month high in February, limiting the Bank of England's scope to cut rates. It also rose to 78.18 pence per euro from 78.69.

The yen lost 1.9 percent against the pound and New Zealand dollar as gaining stocks boosted confidence in carry trades, where investors buy high-yielding assets with loans from Japan, profiting from the difference in rates.

The Swiss franc, also used to fund carry trades, weakened against major currencies. Benchmark rates are 2.75 percent in Switzerland, 5.25 percent in the U.K., 7.25 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.

Stocks Gain

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 2 percent. Stocks in Asia and Europe also advanced.

``The yen is taking its cues from the equity market and its sentiment on risk,'' said Phyllis Papadavid, a London-based currency strategist at Societe Generale SA.

Implied volatility, a gauge of traders' expectations for future price swings, on one-month dollar-yen options fell to 18.75 percent, after reaching 24 percent yesterday, the highest since January 1999, according to Bloomberg data. Lower volatility tends to fuel demand for carry trades because it makes profit from the strategy more predictable.

The U.S. currency has slumped 9 percent against the yen in the past four weeks as losses in credit markets deepened. Japan's Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga said the dollar's decline is ``excessive.''

Nukaga's Concern

Nukaga expressed concern about currency movements for a second day and Kyodo News reported that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is seeking contact with other countries about the dollar's drop. Nippon Steel Corp. said yesterday the surging yen poses a threat to earnings.

``I'm concerned with when the U.S. dollar will reach a bottom, and what monetary policies the U.S. will take,'' China's Premier Wen Jiabao told a press conference, promising ``forceful'' steps to damp inflation. The yuan traded at 7.0830, close to the highest since the end of its dollar link in 2005.

The South Korean won gained 1.5 percent to 1,014 per dollar after Deputy Finance Minister Shin Je Yoon said the central bank will take action against the currency's decline if the market doesn't ``stabilize.'' The currency fell 7.8 percent against the dollar this year and 19 percent versus the yen.

Traders see a 90 percent likelihood the Fed will cut its target rate by 1 point to 2 percent at today's meeting, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. There is a 10 percent chance of a cut to 2.25 percent. The Fed unexpectedly lowered the rate it charges commercial banks for loans by a quarter- point to 3.25 percent on March 16. The decision will be announced at about 2:15 p.m. New York time.

Global stocks slumped yesterday after the Fed helped arrange the purchase of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co. for about 7 percent of its market value as of March 14.

The U.S. currency has lost 15 percent against the euro and 17 percent versus the yen in the past year as the worst housing slump since 1991 forced the Fed to cut its benchmark rate 2.25 percentage points.

Mandrake trading system ( EA MT4)

2008-03-18T05:00:00.002+07:00

MANDRAKE - TRADING SYSTEMS

DOWNLOAD

Sunday, March 2, 2008

"The Best" EA Series"

This is simply a continuation from The Ultimate Expert Advisor Gbpusd thread, except with my new EA's that are fresh out the oven to make crap loads of Pips!

Attached below are the EA's I have Optimized for these three currency pairs:
(These EA's are based on Straddle&Trail Series by YANNIS, I have only Optimized them for max Pips and customized them for my Personal Breakout Strategies that I am sharing with you all)

* WARNING: PLEASE BEWARE THAT MY EA'S PUT TOGETHER MAKE 42 PIPS PROFIT WORST CASE SCENARIO EVERY DAY AND 300 PIPS PROFIT BEST CASE SCENARIO *

-"The Best" is for EUR/JPY - Updated 3/1/2008
-"The Best 2" is for EUR/USD - Updated 3/1/2008
-"The Best 3" is for GBP/USD - Updated 3/1/2008
-"The Best 4" is for USD/CAD - NEW Created 3/1/2008

DOWNLOAD

SOURCE: adry fx.blogspot.com

Forex news today

2008-03-17T05:10:00.000+07:00

Dollar Falls to Record Low Against Euro, 12-Year Low Versus Yen

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar sank to the weakest ever against the euro and to a 12-year low versus the yen after JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the New York Federal Reserve agreed to provide emergency funding to Bear Stearns Cos., signaling credit market losses may widen.

The U.S. currency also plunged to below parity with the Swiss franc for the first time as traders speculated the Fed will slash interest rates a full percentage point next week to keep a credit-market crisis from triggering a recession.

``The initial reaction is to sell the U.S.: sell the dollar, sell the equities,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of foreign-exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. ``This is bad news; it's definitely a confirmation of the reality that U.S. financial institutions are having a hard time.''

The U.S. currency plunged to $1.5688 per euro, the weakest since the European currency's debut in 1999. It then settled back to $1.5639 per euro at 10:29 a.m. in New York, from $1.5635 yesterday. The dollar sank to 99.57 yen, the weakest since October 1995, and then traded at 100.02 yen from 100.65 yesterday.

It reached as weak as 0.9988 francs per dollar, from 1.0093 francs yesterday.

The New York Fed will ``provide non-recourse, back-to- back'' financing for up to 28 days, JPMorgan said in a statement today. Bear Stearns Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz said today in a separate statement that the firm's ``liquidity position in the last 24 hours had significantly deteriorated.''

Exiting Carry Trades

The announcement on Bear Stearns led traders to exit so- called carry trades, in which they obtain cheap loans in yen and use the funds to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. U.S. stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index dropping 1.7 percent.

The likelihood the Fed will cut its target rate for overnight loans between banks by 100 basis points to 2 percent next week rose to 36 percent, from zero percent yesterday, futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. The balance of bets is on a cut of 75 basis points to 2.25 percent. The central bank has already reduced rates five times since September, from 5.25 percent.

No Relief

``I don't see any relief for the dollar,'' said Win Thin, a currency strategist with Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. ``It's another brush fire for the Fed to put out. It's like you put a finger in the dike and another hole pops up.''

The yen and franc both advanced against more than a dozen major currencies, including about 1 percent against the Australian dollar. The gains came as demand evaporated for the carry trade, where traders borrow cheaply in countries such as Japan and Switzerland and invest in countries such as Australia, where the benchmark rate is 7.25 percent. Japan's main rate is 0.5 percent and Switzerland's is 2.75 percent.

Currency volatility has surged in recent weeks, increasing the risk of the carry-trade strategy. One-month volatility on dollar-yen options was about 16.5 percent, up from about 10.5 percent at the end of last month. Currency swings can erase profits from rate differentials.

Forex news

2008-03-14T05:59:00.001+07:00

Dollar Falls to 12-Year Low of 100 Yen on Carlyle Fund Failure

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell below 100 yen earlier today for the first time since 1995 and dropped to a record low against the euro after a Carlyle Group fund moved closer to collapse, adding to turmoil in financial markets.

The dollar approached parity with the Swiss franc and slumped against the British pound after Carlyle said lenders will seize the assets of its mortgage-bond fund and President George W. Bush said the U.S. currency's decline was not ``good tidings.'' The dollar's drop may prompt Middle East central banks to reduce dollar holdings, Greg Gibbs, a strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney, said in a report.

``Sentiment for the dollar continues to deteriorate very, very rapidly and if we're not careful this will turn into a dollar crash,'' said Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign-exchange research in London at Calyon, the securities unit of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest bank. ``The risk is that we see a fairly aggressive move sharply lower towards 95 yen, and that could really perk up the interest of the Bank of Japan.''

The dollar fell to 99.77 yen, the lowest since October 1995, before trading at 100.18 at 10:29 a.m. in New York, from 101.79 yesterday. The dollar touched $1.5624 per euro, the weakest since the European currency's debut in 1999, and was at $1.5589, from $1.5551. It slid to a record 1.0045 Swiss francs. Japan's currency advanced to 156.21 per euro, from 158.30.

The U.S. currency fell against a basket of six major trading partners to the lowest since the index began in 1973. The Dollar Index traded on ICE Futures in New York declined as low as 71.82. The dollar dropped to $2.0365 per pound from $2.0270, touching the weakest since December.

Yen Sales

Japan sold the yen on the four occasions since 1995 when the currency approached 100 to support exporters including Toyota Motor Corp., the world's second-biggest automaker. The Bank of Japan sold 14.8 trillion yen ($148 billion) in the first three months of 2004, after record sales of 20.4 trillion yen in 2003.

The yen's 24 percent gain against the dollar from a 4 1/2- year low on June 22 was ``unexpected'' and will damage earnings, Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe said today.

``We must continue cost cuts by all means, but the currency has reached the level where we have to think about other measures,'' Watanabe told reporters in Tokyo. A gain of 1 yen against the dollar cuts Toyota's annual operating profit by 35 billion yen, according to the automaker.

Intervention Risk

The yen may rise as high as 95 per dollar, according to forecasts this month by Citigroup Inc., the third-biggest currency trader, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth- biggest U.S. securities firm, and Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's second-largest publicly traded bank. Deutsche Bank AG and UBS AG, the two biggest currency traders, had predicted the dollar would hold above 100.

``There's more than a 50 percent probability that the U.S. is in recession,'' Eisuke Sakakibara, dubbed ``Mr. Yen'' when he was Japan's top currency official from 1997 to 1999, said in an interview on March 6. ``The dollar-yen rate is dependent on the state of the U.S. economy.''

The Group of Seven, which next meets April 12-13 in Washington, may signal its intent to consider coordinated intervention, UBS strategists wrote in a March 3 report. Unilateral intervention ``seems unlikely'' as Japan's economy has grown every year since 2002, it said.

Central banks intervene in the foreign-exchange market when they buy or sell currencies to influence exchange rates.

Exiting Carry Trades

The yen also gained as investors exited so-called carry trades, in which they borrow in a country with low interest rates and buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere, earning the spread between the two. The risk is that currency moves erase those profits.

Japan's benchmark rate of 0.5 percent compares with 3 percent in the U.S., 4 percent in Europe, 7.25 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.

Carlyle Capital Corp., co-founded by David Rubenstein, said in a statement it defaulted on about $16.6 billion of debt as of yesterday. Lenders will ``promptly'' take over all of its remaining assets and any remaining debt is expected ``soon'' to go into default, it said.

The yen has rallied 13 percent against the dollar as the Fed cut rates amid the worst housing slump in a quarter of a century and $190 billion of U.S. subprime-mortgage-related losses and markdowns at the world's biggest financial institutions.

Losing Confidence

``Investors are starting to lose confidence in the dollar, given the increased uncertainty over credit-related losses,'' Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London, wrote in a note to clients today. ``Carlyle is unlikely to be the last hedge fund in difficulty. That will only further depress investor sentiment.''

Drake Management LLC, the New York based-firm started by former BlackRock Inc. money managers, said yesterday it may shut its largest hedge fund, while GO Capital Asset Management BV blocked clients from withdrawing cash from one of its funds.

The biggest job losses in five years and record fuel costs are eroding U.S. consumer confidence and spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. Lehman and JPMorgan Chase & Co. last week said the U.S. is headed into a recession.

Forex Trading with Robots

2008-03-12T05:34:00.000+07:00

Forex Trading Robots

Automated or automatic forex can be defined as the ability to trade forex with the use of a trading program or forex trading robot, without needing a human to physically trade a forex system. With forex, automated trading is an emerging field that began not that long ago.

There are 2 general categories of automated trading:

Automated trading through managed forex. Some, though not all, forex managed accounts are traded via automated forex. In either case, the trading is passive in that you don’t have to do it. But in the case of automated forex, the trading program or robot executes the trades of their trading system, rather than a human team.
When you program your own or someone else’s forex system into a program with programming and automatic trading abilities such as MetaTrader, or other trading program. Wealth Lab required programming skills (the programming language used is similar to Pascal), while other programs just emerging that will allow you to select parameters and test your system performance.

Advantages of automatic forex trading systems

What are the advantages of automated or automatic forex trading, whether it’s with a managed forex account using a trading robot, which is a much easier way as you do not have to design or program a system?

They are:

You do not have to physically trade the system.
Automated trading can take trades at anytime of the day or night. This is particularly important for systems where the performance is increased when taking a majority of trades in the system, which occurs in systems where trading opportunities occur at times when the person may be sleeping or otherwise cannot get to the computer. So being available for trading 24 hours a day, unlike a trader can, will the profitablility of these systems.
You can trade multiple systems, such as systems that rely on different types of indicators, or which trade shorter or longer time frames, in order to diversify risk, as well as to smoothen out your equity curve and reduce drawdown.
An automated system is unaffected by a trader’s psychology, which can sometime cause a system to be not traded properly. If your trader discretion causes you to improve performance, then that is fine, but if it causes a worse performance than if you traded the system mechanically, then this is an issue that is overcome by automated forex.
Enables the development of new systems that may be difficult for a human to trade, such as systems with a high frequency of trades using tick data. Designing a system is no longer be limited by how practical or easy it is for a person to trade it.

These benefits of automated forex of course is based on the fact that:

You have chosen a profitable forex system and has acceptable drawdown, as evidenced by historical performance.
The forex system is not just mechanical, but is fully programmable.
You are aware, with either active trading or automated trading, that you must monitor the performance to see that the system is still working as well as its past performance.

Hence, that's why it's mentioned that you'll have to use a automated forex provider including managed forex with MetaTrader for those inclined that

EUR USD weekly

2008-03-10T17:27:00.000+07:00

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.5460 level and was supported around the $1.5145 level. The pair gained about 170 pips last week. Philly Fed’s Plosser said the Fed may normalize policy quickly when conditions warrant. Fed chief Bernanke called on lenders to enact “vigorous solutions” to counter mortgage foreclosures. The Fed’s Beige Book saw eight of twelve Fed districts report softening economic activity. The Fed announce it will increase its TAF liquidity provision to US$ 100 billion, announced another US$ 100 billion in 28-day repos, and announced it is in close consultations with central banks on liquidity provision. San Francisco Fed President Yellen sees inflation waning while Dallas Fed President Fisher warned against expecting automatic repeat Fed rate cuts.

The ECB kept its refinancing rate unchanged at 4.0%. Trichet cited “short-term upward inflation pressures.” The ECB raised its 2009 inflation forecast to a range of 1.5% to 2.7% and reduced its GDP growth forecast to 1.7% for 2008. Trichet said he is paying “extreme attention” to the U.S’s strong dollar policy.

ECB’s Liebscher said the price of oil is “crucial” to monetary policy. Ecofin finance ministers stepped-up verbal intervention against the euro’s rise. ECB’s Weber said the prospect of lower EMU-15 GDP growth “is not enough reason” to anticipate weaker inflation pressures.

Data released in the U.S. last week saw February ISM manufacturing fall to 48.3 from 50.7 with the prices paid sub-index narrowly lower at 75.5; January construction spending fell 1.7% m/m; January factory orders fell 2.5% with ex-transportation off 0.4%; ISM non-manufacturing improved to 49.3; ADP February payrolls evidenced a jobs loss of 23,000; Q4 productivity increased 1.9%, down from 6.3% in Q3; unit labour costs rose 2.6% in Q4; weekly initial jobless claims rose 29,000 to 2.831 million; January pending home sales were off 19.6% y/y; weekly initial jobless claims were up 29,000 to 2.831 million; January pending home sales were off 19.6% y/y; February non-farm payrolls growth were -63,000 with a cumulative downward revision to December’s and January’s tallies of 46,000; and the February unemployment rate was 4.8% with average hourly earnings up +0.3%.

Data released in the eurozone last week saw EMU-15 HICP unchanged at 3.2%; EMU-15 February manufacturing PMI printed at 52.8; EMU-15 January industrial product prices rose 0.8% m/m and 4.9% y/y; EMU-13 Q4 GDP were up 0.4% q/q and 2.2% y/y; the EMU-15 service sector PMI index improved to 52.3; EMU-15 January retail sales were up 0.4% m/m and off 0.1% y/y; German January manufacturing orders fell 1.5% m/m; and German January industrial output was up 1.8% m/m and 6.9% y/y.

Technical Outlook

Last week’s high (1) was a new lifetime high and last week’s low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4438-1.5460 range. The 1.5520/ 1.5854 levels represent upside resistance targets while the 1.5219/ 1.5069/ 1.4979/ 1.4813/ 1.4716/ 1.4631 levels represent downside support targets.

Marketiva hadir dengan Indexs dan Commodities

2007-11-06T16:33:00.000+07:00

Wah makin hebat aja marketiva!

Ayo kita coba trade commodities dan indexs

BETWEEN TRADE OR NO

2007-10-26T14:15:00.000+07:00

betwEen trade or no!

what you can choose?

1. trade with own
2. trade with robot!

if you want download trading tools with robot! download right here!

tHIS IS JUST SAMPLE ROBOT TRADING

use this strategi in MT4 platfrom and choose the virtual mode"

NICE TO TRADE :)

Resiko Bermain Forex dan Solusi Pemecahannya

2007-10-08T18:28:00.000+07:00

Forex adalah jenis investasi yang sangat beresiko tinggi, apabila kita menang mungkin akan besar namun kalahnya juga seperti demikian, bagaimana cara kita menyiasatinya ya?
Berikut ada beberapa tips yang boleh dijalani

- Bertradinglah dengan menggunakan maksimal 25% dari total margin anda
- Tidak serakah
- Analisa pasar terlebih dahulu
- Jika anda punya tips yang lain, tulis aja di comment!
- :) Always smile

Dollar Falls

2007-09-29T04:26:00.000+07:00

Dollar Falls to Record Low Against Euro on Inflation, Fed View

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record low against the euro as evidence of slowing inflation encouraged traders to speculate that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs a second time this year.

The government reported today that core consumer prices last month had their smallest annual gain since February 2004. The Fed on Sept. 18 reduced the target rate for overnight lending between banks a half-percentage point to 4.75 percent.

``The dollar was sold on a significantly bearish outlook,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy in New York at Bank of America Corp. ``Now the dollar has been pushed to an extreme level.''

The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.4198 per euro at 9:42 a.m. in New York after touching $1.4208, the lowest since the European currency debuted in January 1999. It was the seventh straight day the dollar broke a record. The dollar decreased 0.4 percent to 115.23 yen.

Some traders sold the euro to prevent it from trading above $1.4250, according to Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. Traders place preset orders to prevent a currency from breaking through a range and rendering options bets worthless.

The next level of resistance is $1.4536 per euro, the equivalent of the dollar's record low of 1.3455 deutsche marks in March 1995, he said.

Fed Rate Outlook

Futures contracts today showed 86 percent odds the central bank will lower its target by a quarter-percentage point to 4.50 percent at its next meeting Oct. 31, compared with 14 percent a month ago. The European Central Bank's key borrowing cost is 4 percent, while the Bank of Japan's is 0.5 percent.

The Commerce Department said today that its price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy costs, the Fed's preferred measure, rose 1.8 percent from August 2006 after a 1.9 percent annualized increase the previous month.

The New York-based Conference Board reported on Sept. 25 that its index of consumer confidence fell to 99.8 in September from a revised 105.6 in the previous month. Purchases of new homes fell to an annual rate of 795,000 last month from a revised 867,000 in July, the lowest in more than seven years, the Commerce Department reported yesterday.

The yen rose earlier against the dollar on speculation losses related to subprime mortgage defaults will spread in the U.S. and Europe.

The Financial Times said Northern Rock Plc, a U.K. bank bailed out by the Bank of England, borrowed a further 5 billion pounds ($10 billion) to stay in business.

The Bank of England agreed to bail out Newcastle, England- based Northern Rock on Sept. 14 after it requested an emergency credit line, as losses on U.S. mortgages to people with poor credit made banks reluctant to lend.

EUR/USD RECORD

2007-09-12T05:05:00.000+07:00

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar weakened to near a record low against the euro after Federal Reserve officials signaled the need for interest-rate cuts, eroding demand for dollar- denominated assets.

The U.S. dollar index sank to a 15-year low against six major currencies as Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and Fed Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said yesterday credit-market losses may slow growth, while a government report last week showed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs in August. The euro rose for a fifth day versus the dollar, its longest winning streak since June.

``Everyone hates the dollar,'' said Steven Butler, director of foreign exchange trading at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. ``The market has a rate cut next week totally priced in. Lots of people are calling for the Fed to do more. The Fed seems to be backed into a corner.''

The dollar fell 0.2 percent to $1.3825 per euro at 10:26 a.m. in New York, after earlier touching $1.3839, the weakest since Aug. 6. The dollar reached a record low of $1.3852 on July 24. The U.S. currency bought 114.01 yen, from 113.71.

Brazil's real led gains among the 16 major currencies against the U.S. dollar, rising 1 percent. Canada's dollar and Sweden's krona increased 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

The New York Board of Trade's dollar index comparing the U.S. currency against its six primary peers, including the euro and yen, fell 0.2 percent to 79.671 from 79.816 yesterday. It earlier touched 79.616, the lowest since September 1992.

`No Reason'

``There is no reason to buy the dollar,'' said Michael Malpede, a senior currency analyst in Chicago at Man Global Research. ``The dollar is pressured by speculation that the Fed is going to cut rates next week. Fed officials have signaled they are worried about downside risks to growth.''

The dollar will drop to $1.40 per euro by October, said Malpede.

The yen fell against all 16 major currencies as a rise in global stocks prompted investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.6 percent to 1,460.07 after gains in Asian and European equities. Treasuries fell for the first time in three days as demand for the safety of government debt waned.

The spread, or extra yield, investors demand to own emerging-market bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries narrowed 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 2.41 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI Plus index. The drop in the risk premium is the biggest since Aug. 31.

The European Central Bank said it drained a record 60 billion euros ($83 billion) from the money market after the overnight deposit rate slumped below the bank's benchmark lending rate of 4 percent.

`Slight Return'

``You are seeing a slight return of risk appetite,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the Global Markets group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodian bank with over $20 trillion in assets under administration. ``The market now prices in a Fed rate cut next week and there is hope that the credit problems will ease and liquidity will improve. Some of the risk-taking investors are positioning for the eventuality.''

The Japanese currency fell 0.3 percent to 157.51 per euro. The yen dropped 1 percent against the real, 0.9 percent versus the Canadian dollar and 0.4 percent versus the Australian dollar.

`Important Downside Risk'

Mishkin said yesterday there's an ``important downside risk'' to the world's biggest economy and Yellen highlighted ``significant downward pressure.''

Two-year Treasuries yielded 2 basis points less than similar-maturity German bunds amid speculation the Fed will cut its main rate at the Sept. 18 meeting. The U.S. notes lost their yield advantage for the first time in three years last week.

Interest-rate futures show a 56 percent chance the Fed will lower borrowing costs by half a percentage point to 4.75 percent next week. A month ago, traders were expecting a quarter-point cut.

Traders are betting the European Central Bank will raise borrowing costs at least once from 4 percent by year-end.

The implied yield on the December futures contract rose 4 basis points to 4.51 percent. The contract settles to the three- month interbank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged about 16 basis points above the ECB's key rate since 1999.

ECB executive board member Juergen Stark said the decision to leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged last week doesn't mean policy makers have ruled out another increase, Market News International reported.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will deliver a speech at 11 a.m. New York time in Berlin today focused on trade and capital flows. He is scheduled to speak from a prepared text without taking questions.

A government report showed the U.S trade deficit narrowed during July.

The trade gap fell to $59.2 billion from a revised $59.4 billion in June. The median forecast of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a deficit of $59 billion.

EURO versus Dollar

2007-09-12T02:05:00.000+07:00

The euro strengthened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3840 level and was supported around the $1.3775 level. Traders await remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke from Berlin later today. Comments from Fed officials yesterday evidenced a wide range of opinions concerning the effects of the current global credit crunch on the U.S. economy. Fed Governor Mishkin reported that if “heightened uncertainty” leads to further pullbacks in household and business spending, “it poses an important downside risk to economic activity.” The Federal Open Market Committee convenes one week from today and many traders believe the Fed will reduce the federal funds target rate by up to 50bps. In contrast to Mishkin’s remarks, Dallas Fed President Fisher suggested a steady course of action would be sensible saying “having a steady hand rather than an itchy trigger finger” is what guides him. Fisher added “I set aside the passions of the moment and the conventional wisdom in the markets and keep a steady focus on the Fed's mission. Conducting monetary policy is not a popularity contest.” Data released in the U.S. today saw the July trade balance narrow to –US$ 59.2 billion, down 0.3% from the upwardly revised –US$ 59.4 billion in June. In eurozone news, the European Commission reduced its EMU-13 growth forecast to +2.8% from its previous projection of +2.9%. Likewise, the EC now sees 2007 inflation at 2.0% compared with earlier forecasts of 1.9%. Also, the German August wholesale price index was up 0.5% m/m and up 2.5% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3620 level.